Well Jeff, I hope you are more right about this than I am, but I think it is damn close and basically comes down to Ohio in this sense: If Bush wins Ohio, I think his chances of winning the election are >90%--a virtual lock.
On the other hand, if Bush loses Ohio, then I put his chances at <40% with the most likely out come to be Kerry 270 electors and Bush 268 electors. (This would have WI and NH going to Kerry and MN & NM going to Bush).
I don't think this race should be this close or even close at all, but I believe it is.
...and working hard so that any of those can come about according to God's will.