I think it's possible that Bush may also take Oregon and Washington. I saw one poll a few days ago with Bush ahead 5 points in Oregon (it was on KGW, don't remember which poll). And all the other polls are pretty close in Oregon...
Agreed. Michigan too.
I don't see where you are coming up with your assessment that Bush will take Oregon. I was just talking with a VERY conservative friend in Bend and he said that Bush has almost zero chance in Oregon (he calls it the "bookends" syndrome: Oregon is "bookended" by California and Washington, two of the most liberal and leftist places on the planet, and has thus become overly influenced by those two socialist republics).