Replies

It is a sign of what is happening. However, as we saw in 2000, the national numbers if close don't mean anything in regards to the electoral college.

You could lose 90 to 10% in states with 268 electoral college votes, but win 50.1% in states that have 272 and become president. What matters is the battleground polls especially in a close election. It actually depresses me that California is closer than it was last time. What that means is that Kerry is doing better in states other than California than Gore did. Kerry could win California with 1 vote for all he cares. Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin are what matter. If those 3 states are swept, it's over.

You could lose 90 to 10% in states with 268 electoral college votes, but win 50.1% in states that have 272 and become president.

Mathematically possible, but we know it doesn't work that way. For instance, recall that in 2000 the popular vote and electoral votes were both hair-raisingly close, although they broke different ways. That's the baseline to use in looking at this race.

Bush is polling better than he did in 2000 in state after state, including such blue states as Hawaii, California, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Michigan, etc. He's having little trouble holding his own solid red states, although Kerry is throwing all he has against Florida and Ohio, narrowly won by Bush last time.

That "state after state" business is the key. Any truly national trend won't be confined to just two or three states. When Bush Senior was in trouble in the '92 contest, one heard much in the late days about his "electoral strategy." It didn't work. Too many states toppled to Clinton. Unless the shift is truly regional rather than national, or too tiny to register, a shift in the popular vote will be magnified rather than suppressed in the electoral vote.

... Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin are what matter. If those 3 states are swept, it's over.

Well, yeah, but why would you think Kerry could sweep all 3?

Bush will win Florida.
Give him the other states already in his column and add:

New Mexico

Iowa

and Hawaii.

That's all he needs for 270. No Wisconsin, no Ohio, etc. I'm not saying he won't take any of those midwest states...just that he can pretty easily do it without them.

The LA Times has a good electoral calculator. [click on the map].

--------------------

Speaking of which, does anyone know when exactly the Cheney Aloha rally is? That should be something to see!