Here are the
'Rep/Dem/Ind' breakdowns and supporting internal data for the last eight Fox News/Opinion Dynamics presidential preference polls, including the October 27-28, 2004 poll which was released Friday. Also included was the recent Fox News October 28-29, 2004 one-time tracking poll which was quickly released on Saturday. I am publishing this information in one place for easy trend comparison versus looking at each Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll via PDF files. Also included is a re-weighting of the Fox News/Opinion Dynamics polls to the year 2000 presidential election 'Rep/Dem/Ind' partisan affiliation
(from VNS exit poll data) results labeled
"Adjusted Numbers", for comparison purposes only. No prediction is implied by this 'what-if' re-weighting column, it is just to show what would happen if the Fox News/Opinion Dynamics internals were
"Zogby-fied".
Some comments have been made over the 'tightening' of the race by comparing the results of the last two Fox News polls conducted during the last few days. Most of the variance between the two polls is 'statistical noise', but there is enough of a change in the delta between Bush and Kerry in the Independents to show a trend towards Bush. The change in the Fox News poll released on 10/29/2004 [50% Bush, 45% Kerry, 0% Nader] and the Fox News poll released on 10/30/2004 [47% Bush, 45% Kerry, 1% Nader] is due to the change in the sample composition. The sample R/D/I splits had the Democrats go up by (+3%) and the Republicans go down by (-2.67%). Since Fox News/Opinion Dynamics does not re-weight by pre-set partisan affiliation percentages, the change in the sample composition in ONE day must be due to the inability to contact as many Republicans as the day before. I doubt that the change in the polling sample composition was due to either lack of enthusiasm about their party affiliation by Republicans. Bottom line: the underlying poll internals remained about the same, with more Independents beginning to favor Bush.
If the poll result percentages in the table show below are rounded off so as not to have a fractional component, the results should match the published polls for each polling organization. The fractional differences in the table poll results are due to the calculations done to distribute the sample number of Registered or Likely voter responses which was necessary to avoid any great inaccuracies due to the rounding already performed by the polling organizations when their results are published.
Notes: In some cases polling organizations will have more than the three categories of partisan political affiliation (Rep/Dem/Ind). When such cases exist, those 'Others' have been added to the 'Independent' category for comparison purposes.
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| FoxNews/Opinion Dynamics Results |
|
Republicans |
Democrats |
Independents |
N= |
Bush |
Kerry |
Nader |
Other |
Wont Vote |
| All polls Registered or Likely Voters |
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| July 20-21, 2004 |
100.0% |
33.6% |
38.6% |
27.9% |
900 RV |
43.00% |
42.44% |
3.56% |
10.44% |
0.56% |
| August 3-4, 2004 |
100.0% |
33.9% |
38.0% |
28.1% |
900 RV |
42.00% |
46.00% |
2.44% |
8.89% |
0.67% |
| August 24-25, 2004 |
100.0% |
33.8% |
36.2% |
30.0% |
1,000 LV |
42.51% |
43.83% |
3.68% |
9.51% |
0.46% |
| September 7-8, 2004 |
100.0% |
33.9% |
37.5% |
28.6% |
1,000 LV |
46.60% |
42.80% |
2.90% |
7.30% |
0.40% |
| September 21-22, 2004 |
100.0% |
35.0% |
37.7% |
27.3% |
1,000 LV |
45.60% |
41.80% |
1.30% |
11.10% |
0.20% |
| October 3-4, 2004 |
100.0% |
31.5% |
39.6% |
28.9% |
1,000 LV |
47.49% |
45.00% |
1.49% |
5.51% |
0.51% |
| October 17-18, 2004 |
100.0% |
35.8% |
36.6% |
27.6% |
1,000 LV |
49.00% |
42.00% |
2.40% |
6.60% |
0.00% |
| October 27-28, 2004 |
100.0% |
37.4% |
35.1% |
27.5% |
1,200 LV |
49.75% |
44.75% |
0.42% |
5.08% |
0.00% |
| Tracking - October 28-29, 2004 |
100.0% |
34.8% |
38.1% |
27.2% |
1,200 LV |
47.42% |
45.33% |
0.58% |
6.67% |
0.00% |
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Fox News/Opinion Dynamics
National Polls
Partisan Affiliation Preferences
2004 Presidential Election
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Year 2000 Presidential weighting |
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Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
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VNS calculated exit data |
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34.37% |
38.86% |
26.77% |
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34.75% |
38.08% |
27.17% |
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| Poll Information |
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Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
Poll Numbers |
|
Adjusted Numbers |
| FoxNews |
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Favor Bush |
92.00% |
9.00% |
44.00% |
Bush: |
47.00% |
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46.96% |
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| 10/30/04 |
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Favor Kerry |
5.00% |
86.00% |
41.00% |
Kerry: |
45.00% |
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45.82% |
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| MoE ±3.0% |
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Favor Nader |
0.00% |
0.00% |
2.00% |
Nader: |
1.00% |
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0.58% |
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| 1,200 Likely |
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Other/UnDec |
3.00% |
5.00% |
13.00% |
Other/UnDec |
7.00% |
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6.64% |
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| 3-day rolling |
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Wont Vote: |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
Wont Vote: |
0.00% |
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100.0% |
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100% |
100% |
100% |
Total: |
100% |
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37.42% |
35.08% |
27.50% |
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34.37% |
38.86% |
26.77% |
| Poll Information |
|
Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
Poll Numbers |
|
Adjusted Numbers |
| FoxNews |
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Favor Bush |
92.00% |
8.00% |
45.00% |
Bush: |
50.00% |
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46.94% |
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| 10/29/04 |
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Favor Kerry |
6.00% |
86.00% |
44.00% |
Kerry: |
45.00% |
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47.50% |
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| MoE ±3.0% |
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Favor Nader |
0.00% |
1.00% |
1.00% |
Nader: |
0.00% |
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0.44% |
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| 1,200 Likely |
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Other/UnDec |
2.00% |
5.00% |
10.00% |
Other/UnDec |
5.00% |
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5.12% |
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Wont Vote: |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
Wont Vote: |
0.00% |
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100.0% |
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100% |
100% |
100% |
Total: |
100% |
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35.80% |
36.60% |
27.60% |
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34.37% |
38.86% |
26.77% |
| Poll Information |
|
Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
Poll Numbers |
|
Adjusted Numbers |
| FoxNews |
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Favor Bush |
91.00% |
7.00% |
51.00% |
Bush: |
49.00% |
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47.43% |
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| 10/18/04 |
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Favor Kerry |
4.00% |
86.00% |
33.00% |
Kerry: |
42.00% |
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43.62% |
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| MoE ±3.0% |
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Favor Nader |
1.00% |
3.00% |
4.00% |
Nader: |
2.00% |
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2.43% |
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| 1,000 Likely |
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Other/UnDec |
4.00% |
4.00% |
12.00% |
Other/UnDec |
7.00% |
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6.53% |
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Wont Vote: |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
Wont Vote: |
0.00% |
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100.0% |
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100% |
100% |
100% |
Total: |
100% |
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31.52% |
39.56% |
28.91% |
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34.37% |
38.86% |
26.77% |
| Poll Information |
|
Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
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Poll Numbers |
|
Adjusted Numbers |
| FoxNews |
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Favor Bush |
93.00% |
10.00% |
50.00% |
Bush: |
47.00% |
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48.98% |
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| 10/04/04 |
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Favor Kerry |
4.00% |
83.00% |
39.00% |
Kerry: |
45.00% |
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43.69% |
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| MoE ±3.0% |
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Favor Nader |
0.00% |
1.00% |
4.00% |
Nader: |
1.00% |
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1.41% |
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| 1,000 Likely |
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Other/UnDec |
2.00% |
6.00% |
6.00% |
Other/UnDec |
6.00% |
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5.92% |
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Wont Vote: |
1.00% |
0.00% |
1.00% |
Wont Vote: |
1.00% |
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100.0% |
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100% |
100% |
100% |
Total: |
100% |
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35.00% |
37.70% |
27.30% |
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34.37% |
38.86% |
26.77% |
| Poll Information |
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Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
Poll Numbers |
|
Adjusted Numbers |
| FoxNews |
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Favor Bush |
91.00% |
8.00% |
39.00% |
Bush: |
46.00% |
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44.91% |
|
| 09/22/04 |
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Favor Kerry |
3.00% |
81.00% |
36.00% |
Kerry: |
42.00% |
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42.53% |
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| MoE ±3.0% |
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Favor Nader |
1.00% |
1.00% |
3.00% |
Nader: |
1.00% |
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1.30% |
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| 1,000 Likely |
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Other/UnDec |
5.00% |
10.00% |
21.00% |
Other/UnDec |
11.00% |
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11.27% |
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Wont Vote: |
0.00% |
0.00% |
1.00% |
Wont Vote: |
0.00% |
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100.0% |
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100% |
100% |
100% |
Total: |
100% |
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33.90% |
37.50% |
28.60% |
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34.37% |
38.86% |
26.77% |
| Poll Information |
|
Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
Poll Numbers |
|
Adjusted Numbers |
| FoxNews |
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Favor Bush |
94.00% |
9.00% |
40.00% |
Bush: |
47.00% |
|
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46.43% |
|
| 09/08/04 |
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Favor Kerry |
3.00% |
80.00% |
42.00% |
Kerry: |
43.00% |
|
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43.14% |
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| MoE ±3.0% |
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Favor Nader |
1.00% |
3.00% |
4.00% |
Nader: |
3.00% |
|
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2.88% |
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| 1,000 Likely |
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Other/UnDec |
2.00% |
8.00% |
13.00% |
Other/UnDec |
7.00% |
|
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7.55% |
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Wont Vote: |
0.00% |
0.00% |
1.00% |
Wont Vote: |
0.00% |
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100.0% |
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100% |
100% |
100% |
Total: |
100% |
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33.76% |
36.24% |
30.00% |
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34.37% |
38.86% |
26.77% |
| Poll Information |
|
Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
Poll Numbers |
|
Adjusted Numbers |
| FoxNews |
|
Favor Bush |
87.00% |
8.00% |
33.00% |
Bush: |
43.00% |
|
|
42.18% |
|
| 08/26/04 |
|
Favor Kerry |
7.00% |
84.00% |
38.00% |
Kerry: |
44.00% |
|
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44.85% |
|
| MoE ±3.0% |
|
Favor Nader |
1.00% |
1.00% |
11.00% |
Nader: |
3.00% |
|
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3.35% |
|
| 1,000 Likely |
|
Other/UnDec |
5.00% |
7.00% |
16.00% |
Other/UnDec |
10.00% |
|
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9.62% |
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Wont Vote: |
0.00% |
0.00% |
2.00% |
Wont Vote: |
0.00% |
|
|
100.0% |
|
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100% |
100% |
100% |
Total: |
100% |
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33.89% |
38.00% |
28.11% |
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34.37% |
38.86% |
26.77% |
| Poll Information |
|
Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
Poll Numbers |
|
Adjusted Numbers |
| FoxNews |
|
Favor Bush |
86.00% |
9.00% |
33.00% |
Bush: |
42.00% |
|
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42.06% |
|
| 08/04/04 |
|
Favor Kerry |
7.00% |
82.00% |
44.00% |
Kerry: |
46.00% |
|
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46.15% |
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| MoE ±3.0% |
|
Favor Nader |
2.00% |
1.00% |
6.00% |
Nader: |
2.00% |
|
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2.38% |
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| 900 Registered |
|
Do not know: |
5.00% |
8.00% |
15.00% |
Do not know: |
9.00% |
|
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9.42% |
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Wont Vote: |
0.00% |
0.00% |
2.00% |
Wont Vote: |
1.00% |
|
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100.0% |
|
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100% |
100% |
100% |
Total: |
100% |
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33.56% |
38.56% |
27.89% |
|
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34.37% |
38.86% |
26.77% |
| Poll Information |
|
Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
Poll Numbers |
|
Adjusted Numbers |
| FoxNews |
|
Favor Bush |
87.00% |
8.00% |
38.00% |
Bush: |
43.00% |
|
|
43.30% |
|
| 07/21/04 |
|
Favor Kerry |
3.00% |
80.00% |
39.00% |
Kerry: |
42.00% |
|
|
42.28% |
|
| MoE ±3.0% |
|
Favor Nader |
3.00% |
3.00% |
4.00% |
Nader: |
4.00% |
|
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3.55% |
|
| 900 Registered |
|
Do not know: |
7.00% |
9.00% |
17.00% |
Do not know: |
10.00% |
|
|
10.87% |
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Wont Vote: |
0.00% |
0.00% |
2.00% |
Wont Vote: |
1.00% |
|
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100.0% |
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100% |
100% |
100% |
|
100% |
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Source: Fox News poll, October 28-29, 2004 PDF file has date mistake.
Source: Fox News poll, October 27-28, 2004
Source: Fox News poll, October 17-18, 2004
Source: Fox News poll, October 3-4, 2004
Source: Fox News poll, September 21-22, 2004
Source: Fox News poll, September 7-8, 2004
Source: Fox News poll, August 24-25, 2004
Source: Fox News poll, August 3-4, 2004
Source: Fox News poll, July 20-21, 2004
It will be interesting to compare these Fox News/Opinion Dynamics internals as compared to other polls conducted during similar time periods. Look below at the Newsweek poll of October 27-29, 2004 of 1,005 'Registered' voters as compared to the Washington Post tracking poll of October 25-28, 2004 of 2,047 'Likely' voters and the Fox News poll of October 27-28, 2004 (dated 10/29/04) of 1,200 'Likely' voters. Now look at the Fox News tracking poll of October 28-29, 2004 (dated 10/30/04) of 1,200 'Likely' voters. Notice that the tables Fox News tables listed below show a bit more of a swing towards Bush in the preference of the Independents from the previous Fox News poll of October 27-28, 2004 when it was [45% Bush, 44% Kerry, 1% Nader] to the Independents in the current Fox News poll of October 28-29, 2004 of [44% Bush, 41% Kerry, 2% Nader]. The other tables listed below from the Washington Post tracking poll and the latest Newsweek poll during the overlapping polling dates show that the Fox News internals have fallen into line with the trends in the other two major polls shown.
Bottom line from the latest Fox News/Opinion Dynamics polling numbers, which agree with the trends in the internals of other major polling organizations: The Independents are just beginning to break for Bush...
| Poll Information |
|
Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
Poll Numbers |
| WaPost |
|
Favor Bush |
92.00% |
12.00% |
47.00% |
Bush: |
50.00% |
| 10/28/04 |
|
Favor Kerry |
6.00% |
86.00% |
48.00% |
Kerry: |
47.00% |
| MOE ±3.0% |
|
Favor Nader |
0.00% |
0.00% |
2.00% |
Nader: |
0.00% |
| 2,047 Likely |
|
Other |
0.00% |
0.00% |
1.00% |
Other: |
1.00% |
| 2004299 |
|
Neither |
0.00% |
1.00% |
1.00% |
Neither: |
1.00% |
| |
|
Wont Vote |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
Wont Vote: |
0.00% |
| |
|
Do not know |
1.00% |
2.00% |
1.00% |
Do not know: |
1.00% |
| |
|
|
99% |
101% |
100% |
|
100% |
| |
|
|
34.03% |
36.22% |
29.75% |
|
|
| Poll Information |
|
Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
Poll Numbers |
| Newsweek |
|
Favor Bush |
91.00% |
9.00% |
47.00% |
Bush: |
48.00% |
| 10/29/04 |
|
Favor Kerry |
5.00% |
88.00% |
38.00% |
Kerry: |
44.00% |
| MoE ±4.0% |
|
Favor Nader |
1.00% |
0.00% |
3.00% |
Nader: |
1.00% |
| 1,005 Registered |
|
Other/UnDec |
3.00% |
3.00% |
12.00% |
Other/UnDec |
7.00% |
| |
|
|
100% |
100% |
100% |
Total: |
100% |
| |
|
|
37.42% |
35.08% |
27.50% |
|
|
| Poll Information |
|
Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
Poll Numbers |
| FoxNews |
|
Favor Bush |
92.00% |
8.00% |
45.00% |
Bush: |
50.00% |
| 10/29/04 |
|
Favor Kerry |
6.00% |
86.00% |
44.00% |
Kerry: |
45.00% |
| MoE ±3.0% |
|
Favor Nader |
0.00% |
1.00% |
1.00% |
Nader: |
0.00% |
| 1,200 Likely |
|
Other/UnDec |
2.00% |
5.00% |
10.00% |
Other/UnDec |
5.00% |
| |
|
Wont Vote: |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
Wont Vote: |
0.00% |
| |
|
|
100% |
100% |
100% |
Total: |
100% |
| |
|
|
34.75% |
38.08% |
27.17% |
|
|
| Poll Information |
|
Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
Poll Numbers |
| FoxNews |
|
Favor Bush |
92.00% |
9.00% |
44.00% |
Bush: |
47.00% |
| 10/30/04 |
|
Favor Kerry |
5.00% |
86.00% |
41.00% |
Kerry: |
45.00% |
| MoE ±3.0% |
|
Favor Nader |
0.00% |
0.00% |
2.00% |
Nader: |
1.00% |
| 1,200 Likely |
|
Other/UnDec |
3.00% |
5.00% |
13.00% |
Other/UnDec |
7.00% |
| 3-day rolling |
|
Wont Vote: |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
Wont Vote: |
0.00% |
| |
|
|
100% |
100% |
100% |
Total: |
100% |
I have created a temporary 'ping' list to many who had expressed interest in these 'Rep/Dem/Ind' poll breakdowns. If you wish to be added (or removed) from this 'ping' list, please place a reply on this thread and I will attempt to clean-up this list so as to not bother those who do not wish to read this type of poll analysis.
Hope this helps...
dvwjr
1 posted on
10/31/2004 3:45:43 AM PST by
dvwjr
To: 1stMarylandRegiment; 2nd Amendment; 68-69TonkinGulfYachtClub; ableChair; admiralsn; AFPhys; ...
Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll analysis ping...
dvwjr
2 posted on
10/31/2004 3:47:04 AM PST by
dvwjr
To: dvwjr
Looks like the only time they polled more GOP and Dem was the previous poll. And Bush still wins 7 out of 9! This is looking very good.
4 posted on
10/31/2004 3:50:55 AM PST by
Novel
To: dvwjr
Thanks for the ping. Just as I suspected, underweighted GOP sample. Given the MOE, this is to be expected from one poll to another. It's unfortunate that the "weekend factor" has to come in so close to voting day. Maybe we could amend the constitution to move elections to Thursday!
5 posted on
10/31/2004 3:58:09 AM PST by
Timeout
(Just hours to go....before we sleep!)
To: dvwjr
Good Job dvwjr, but what does this all mean comparatively and statistictly? Bottom line, is Bush safe? Does Skerry stand a chance?
6 posted on
10/31/2004 4:01:56 AM PST by
dokmad
To: dvwjr
OK. I have recalculated the numbers for Oct 30 using new assumption: equal numbers of Republicans and Democrats at 37.5% each and 25% independent. Here is what I got:
Bush 49%
Kerry 44%
Undecided 7%
Earlier today I also had recalculated the ARG poll result for yesterday, which according to them showed Bush 48%, Kerry 49% and Undecided at 4%. But they oversampling Democrats, so I calibrated using the same assumption as above (equal at 37.5%, and I at 25%). Here is what I got:
Bush 50%
Kerry 47%
Undecided 4%
My conclusion: we have to be really careful in reading the poll results...
8 posted on
10/31/2004 4:13:17 AM PST by
paudio
(CLINTON BOMBED BELGRADE WITHOUT EVEN BOTHER TO GO TO THE UN...)
To: dvwjr
You are very smart, and I am grateful for that, and all your hard work to post your results, and show us. Thanks again!
15 posted on
10/31/2004 5:13:50 AM PST by
rose
To: dvwjr
Thanks for the analysis, but frankly, I'm suffering with "poll fatigue". When President Bush is ahead, I worry about all those cell phone Kedward idiots and the massive Dem vote fraud machine (I'm reading Hugh Hewitt's book "If it's not close, they can't cheat"), and when we're behind, I worry even more. In the latter case, I worry about the future of our country, judicial appointments, cabinet appointments, and those gloating, coreless power-hungry Democrats. I agree with Mark Steyn that a sKerry victory would only prove American unexceptionalism and utter lack of core principles. So I fast and pray for the future of our country.
16 posted on
10/31/2004 5:31:59 AM PST by
alwaysconservative
(The future of civilization as we know it depends on President Bush getting re-elected)
To: dvwjr
Amazing... Bush actually IMPROVED, relative to the partisan breakdown. What's up with Fox trying to dispirit the base?
17 posted on
10/31/2004 5:46:50 AM PST by
dangus
To: dvwjr
Thanks for this - it helped to see the difference in the demographics of who they polled.
Unfortunately, Fox & Friends (who seems to be leaning liberal this a.m.) didn't bother to say anything about the make-up of those who were polled over the past few days.
They just released a new one and the Pres is down another point from yesterday. I'm going to check their web site to see if it lists the demographics.
To: dvwjr
Great job again, as always.
21 posted on
10/31/2004 6:37:59 AM PST by
kesg
To: dvwjr
The pollsters must be running into a fair amount of people who have already voted. I wonder if the answer "I already voted" would qualify you as a likely voter? I suppose to keep their methodology consistent, they would have to reject someone as a likely voter if they fail the criteria even if they have already voted.
I'm going to vote and am a volunteer in the 72 hours plan, but would not be considered a likely voter, by Gallup anyway. I wonder how many there are like me.
22 posted on
10/31/2004 6:48:56 AM PST by
TomEwall
To: dvwjr
Saturday polls are full of bull. Over 20 million American's are busy watching their favorite College Football teams play on Saturdays and aren't going to interrupt their day to answer some pollster. A majority of the Democrats surveyed are either "girly Dems" or Friday night "Goth Udultschilds". Of course these Democrats, they do get a hold of, have to Google what University or College means in between stuffing their bowls. FOX News really should get out of the polling business because they continue to publish what they know is wrong. If one should take the number of Registered Democrats and Registered Republicans they will find that they are fairly equal, Dems have about 1% more. Take the Independents and they seem to favor President Bush by about 4-5%. That leaves President Bush leading 53.5%-54.5% and Kerry 45.5%-46.5% in a two way race. If one should include Switchable Party Affiliates then Bush runs away with it. It's as simple as that. These MSM Polls are playing the safe game by keeping it this close then will use some event as an excuse why they were so far off. Come Wednesday Bin Laden is their excuse.
24 posted on
10/31/2004 7:31:06 AM PST by
tobyhill
(The war on terrorism is not for the weak!)
To: dvwjr; Jim Robinson
If you've ever thought of a FReeper of the Year award, dvwjr deserves it.
25 posted on
10/31/2004 7:37:58 AM PST by
AmishDude
(It's ZOTerrific.)
To: dvwjr
Top drawer as always. This is probablt OT, but I noticed that Zogby has it tied at 48% this morning. Given the already known biases involved, this is good news. Keep it up until Tuesday night (or Wednesday if there are lawsuits)
To: dvwjr
You can really see the weekend polling effect coming in, doesn't it? Lots of Dem pickup. Internals show the same thing.
30 posted on
10/31/2004 8:58:51 AM PST by
Cableguy
(Bush wins 53/47)
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