[Torie]

With the projected turnout so much higher, really all these polls have a higher margin of error than usual. We are in uncharted territory. Nobody knows who will really show up at the polls. Will it be young airbrain gals who think Bush is retro, or Christian fundmentalists who think any nexus with the public square is a sin, or well, who knows? What will the black turnout be for the Mass ice man, who seems to toy with gay marriage? Just how many Muslim voters are there, who will lash out at Bush? Will Bush get 24% or 29% of the Jewish vote? A certain modesty in predictions is in order here.

[xuberalles]

Those all have weight, I agree. But also working on Bush's side is that he was an unknown quanity in 2000, some of his base stayed home in 2000 after the DUI attack, and we are at war with terrorist organizations, which most people trust him to better deal with.

[jwalsh07]

I understand that but these guys get paid to do this for a living. A professional pollster should be able to get good data on the quantity and quality of new registrants. From there the math is easy.

For Kerry to get to 50%, he has to get 4 million more votes while Bush holds steady. I'm not buying it, the Amish said they are voting this time and they are voting for BUSH! LOL