I, too, haven't bought into the idea, but while I'm now a bit more suspicious, I'll rather wait until tomorrow before hopping on the bandwagon. If President wins by a comfortable margin (PV 3%+), I'll have to concede.
Right now if you add up all of the weekend polls together into one huge sample, Bush leads by slightly more than two points nationally, with a margin of error of only 0.9% -- meaning that there is a virtual 100% probability that he actually has a lead, and at least a 95% chance that this lead is somewhere between 1 and 3 points. That's not too bad. And if you do similar calculations on the state level (not counting today's polls, which are very good for Bush in Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio), the probability is over 90 percent that Bush leads in Florida, Iowa, Wisconsin, and New Mexico. There is a roughly 75% chance that he will win one of either Ohio or Pennsylvania, and about a 20% chance that he will win both of them.
All of these numbers point to a very close race, but all ties seem to be going to President Bush. In other words, right now we are seeing Kerry's best case scenario, and it still isn't good enough for him to win.