The 46-46 was yesterday's poll. Today's is Kerry 48, Bush 46.
While we can all downplay the polls, and it's a given that they're often off the mark, I don't think we should expect a Bush "landslide" as some here are saying.
The race is a virtual tie, just like 2000, and I see it being a long night tomorrow. Probably a nailbiter to the end. Florida and Ohio will probably decide it, and for some reason I'm getting bad vibes about Florida.
The problem with your analysis is tha .000001% wins the state. So it doesn't need to be an overwhelming popular vote to have an Electoral College "landslide." Now, I don't think Bush can get more than 320 EVs. But it's possible, even with thin pop vote #s.