Posted on 11/01/2004 3:01:54 PM PST by Liz
Bandwagon effect, I hope. I don't think ''complacency'' is in the Republican dictionary so close on the heels of Election 2000. The other upside is that the news will nudge a lot of the undecideds out there...folks naturally want to be on the side that wins.
California, Washington, and Michigan for Kerry; Georgia, Colorado, Louisiana, Arizona, and North Carolina for Bush. More red states than blue states have early voting, but the blue states have lots more people. California alone has more people than Texas and Georgia combined, while Washington cancels out Tennessee and -- again -- the entire state of Oregon votes early. Michigan cancels out Louisiana.
You're right. I don't study it enough to know how the early voting states really break down. If California is early voting with a big turnout, that pretty much cancels out Texas (except I think Bush's margin in Texas is bigger than Kerry's in California).
I think it also depends on urban/rural breakdown, too.
Vote. If you don't vote, don't say a xxxx word for the next four years.!!
A bunch came out today for both Florida and Ohio, and virtually all of them were very good for Bush. He now leads in both places in the RCP average, and he is very close to taking a lead in Pennsylvania. Watch Michigan, too.
What I'd like to know is: WHAT THE HELL IS THE MEDIA POLLING EARLY VOTERS FOR?!!
We meet at dawn.
The media's addiction to polls is way over the top. They're in serious need of a 12-step program.
Because they have 24 hours a day to fill.
I happened to be in St. Augustine, FL, this weekend, and had the opportunity to "survey" a lot of cars with the heavy traffic on I-10 -- football fans driving home after the Florida/Georgia game. Of the hundreds of autos with political stickers, I am happy to report that the overwhelming majority were Bush/Cheney.
Jeb was on John Gibson and said that Bush is leading in early voting in Fl....thats real ggooooodddd
That's why W's numbers were a bit off over the weekend! So many good people went to the game!
I remember hearing Dick Morris after the 2000 debacle. (I hope I remember these numbers correctly.) He said that the electoral college can be won by one man, and the popular vote another, but it was extremely unlikely that it could happen with more than a 1 1/2% difference.
In other words, if Bush goes over 2%, it would be highly unlikely to lose the electoral college. This was a statistical analysis. Of course, nothing about this election is usual or ordinary. But if Bush wins by a number near 8%, I don't think there is a snowballs chance in hell Kerry can put the states together for an EV win.
Agreed. I wish they'd ban them the last week of the campaign.
Gillespie is a big jerk. The Demo organization has been outsmarting Gillespie and is continuing to outsmart him.
If the Dems had something like the Swift Boat film and Children of the Veterans it would have been visable for several weeks instead these films were just made available to the general public in the last couple of days. They now are on the internet for free, the GOP backing should have had this happen weeks ago not two th three ddays before the election.
They want to make the news, not report it. This incessant polling is making this one election seem like it is an eternal activity.
They also apparently want to scare some people on this website (which is working.)
You would be absolutely right if this were the entire electorate - but it's not. The sample of voters who have already voted is not necessarily a completely representative sample of those who will vote tomorrow. I hope it is! But it's not likely.
I would take an 8% margin in the entire electorate any day of the week and twice on Sunday.
Gillespie must be sychic, how does he know how many ballots were cast for President Bush, no ballots have been counted.
Let me tell you what, I live in a blue state. There are four voters in my house. We would walk over hot coals to vote Republican tomorrow.
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