RNC CHAIR ED GILLESPIE ON FOX'S THE BIG STORY (good news for GWB)

[Liz]

Ed Gillespie headed up John Gibson's The Big Story airing on Fox 5:00 EST.

Ed said 20% of voters had already cast ballots and GWB has an 8% lead.

I am of two minds about this.

Firstly, the news might allow GWB voters to get complacent, and not vote, figuring he's got it made.

OTOH, news of Bush in the lead with significant numbers could create a bandwagon effect, and might encourage leaners to vote Bush, which would create a bigger popular vote.

[JustaCowgirl]

More likely the latter than the former I think. However, if he says Bush has an 8 point overall lead, that doesn't really tell us anything about the state-by-state results. You know Bush is doubling up Kerry in Texas, Oklahoma, and a few other state. But Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin etc. - that's what's really important.

[zarf]

It's meaninless news. 8% is a national estimate.

It's a state by state thing now.

All that matters is the state results.

[pabianice]

No one knows what the vote is at this moment. The votes have not been tallied. NO COMPLACENCY!

[MNJohnnie]

am of two minds about this. Firstly, the news might allow GWB voters to get complacent, and not vote, figuring he's got it made. OTOH, news of Bush in the lead with significant numbers could create a bandwagon effect, and might encourage leaners to vote Bush


Yeah, my gut is all a quiver about this. I just cannot get the 2000 election out of my head. We went into the last weekend thinking "it's in the bag" and we won with only 527 votes. So I am in a terrible quandry! Good News makes me nervious, bad news makes me nervious. GOD. Hear my plea! Please God, we cannot survive a John Kerry presidency!

[conservativepoet]

No GWB voter will be complacent about voting because for a year we've heard lie after lie from the MSM about Bush. I want Bush to win big and the MSM to be the big loser!!!!!!

[Peach]

We can't get complacent. Let's make sure the president wins the popular vote this time! No matter what the electoral college predictions are in your state, we need to vote!

And early voters tend to be elderly and conservative, I believe I read on FR, so we shouldn't get too complacent.

We're gonna win if we all get out there and vote!

[WildTurkey]

Ed said 20% of voters had already cast ballots and GWB has an 8% lead.

This was on msnbc a day or two ago.

[VadeRetro]

Except if it's 8 percent nationally, it's an electoral blowout. There is no battleground state strategy for such a disaster. Kerry is toast. Roadkill. A dropped goldfish flopping on a hot sidewalk.

[Stratman]

Ignore the numbers. Both sides are spinning like a top.

Vote. Help others vote if you can. Pray.

[Tennessean4Bush]

I know Tennessee and Texas have early voting and I would expect they would weight toward GW heavily. I know Oregon is in this and would weight heavily to Kerry. What other states that are strongly partisan for Kerry or Bush might be skewing these results?

[rdl6989]

Has anybody seen any new polls for Florida, Ohio or any other battleground?

[CFC__VRWC]

Ed said 20% of voters had already cast ballots and GWB has an 8% lead.

I am of two minds about this.

Firstly, the news might allow GWB voters to get complacent, and not vote, figuring he's got it made.

I wouldn't worry about that too much. The guesses about which way the early voting is breaking have been all over the map. No one knows who's ahead right now.

[kesg]

You know Bush is doubling up Kerry in Texas, Oklahoma, and a few other state.

Yeah...and deep blue, early voting California has more people in it than Texas and Oklahoma combined, the entire blue state of Oregon is early voting by mail, etc. It cuts both ways.

[Johnny Crab]

Vote. If you don't vote, don't say a xxxx word for the next four years.

[Jackson Brown]

He's talking about VOTES cast! (exit polls of early voters)

CBS/NY Times Poll: Bush 51%, Kerry 43% Among Early Voters
October 31, 2004


[SNIP]
In many states (including battlegrounds like Florida) in-person early voting began weeks ago. Today one in five voters nationwide say they have already cast their ballot in some way, and still more were planning to do so before Tuesday when interviewed Thursday through Saturday.

13% of likely voters volunteered that they already voted when we asked if they were likely to vote this year; the remainder told us that they had done so when we asked the method by which were voting.

Early voters split about evenly, one-third each between Democrats, Republicans and Independents. They are a bit older: one-quarter are 65 or over, and eight in ten are above age 45. President Bush holds a lead among them.


ALREADY CAST A BALLOT: WHO DID YOU VOTE FOR?

Bush -- 51%
Kerry -- 43%
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/10/31/opinion/polls/main652496.shtml

[Repub4bush]

BROKEN GLASS!!!!!! Also, Don't forget your umbrella's in rain states and water bottles and snacks all over! Lines could be long. Be prepared. Be determined!

[snarkytart]

I don't know however 30 states have early voting. I imagine a few of those are strong Kerry states to balance out the Bush states.

[OldFriend]

I'm with you. I can't imagine a true patriot ever thinking that voting for Dubya won't be that important.

Complacency, never!

[kddid]

I like your thinking!