Yeah...and deep blue, early voting California has more people in it than Texas and Oklahoma combined, the entire blue state of Oregon is early voting by mail, etc. It cuts both ways.
You're right. I don't study it enough to know how the early voting states really break down. If California is early voting with a big turnout, that pretty much cancels out Texas (except I think Bush's margin in Texas is bigger than Kerry's in California).
I think it also depends on urban/rural breakdown, too.