Will Weather Keep Voters from the Polls on November 2nd?

WHO: Weathernews, the world's largest, publicly-traded, full-service weather company, has launched a Web site dedicated to news about weather's impact on the election: www.WeatherToVote.com

WHAT: www.WeatherToVote.com displays weather patterns for battleground states, including a U.S. map that indicates the degree to which weather might affect voter turnout in several notable markets. The map also features clickable battleground states showing the percentage chance of adverse temperatures and precipitation for each state.

WHY: David Montroy, a Weathernews meteorologist, explains: "Many factors impact voter turnout, but weather plays a vital role, especially in states like Ohio and Pennsylvania where November weather patterns tend to be rather volatile."

Studies show voter turnout to be directly linked to weather. In previous elections, turnout has been significantly impacted by inclement weather. According to Weathernews' Election Day Study, 11 states and 141 electoral votes will be at risk due to voters who might not make it to the polls because of inclement weather.

More from the web site:

Weather Impact on Presidential Elections

Political scientists and even the average voter have speculated that weather can influence voter turnout by making people less willing to brave foul weather to go to the polls. (“It's too cold and this rain is terrible. Does my vote really matter that much to make it worth it?”) There is an old saying in New York that a rainy day is good news for the Democratic candidate because Republicans in rural upstate New York would not brave the elements, whereas the Democratic supporters in the urban areas would be less inconvenienced to vote ( Source : The Weather Factor , David Ludlum, p. 102.).

Voter turnout is a key focus of all political campaigns, with campaign managers frequently citing that low voter turnout in key areas of support for their candidate is a missed opportunity of sorts to gain valuable votes in all races, but especially in close races.

With the 2004 presidential election resembling a neck-and-neck horse race down to the wire, any factor that could impact voter turnout or sway voters to one candidate or another is especially interesting. There is ample evidence to support the role of weather influencing voter turnout in previous elections.

Historical Cases

In his book The Weather Factor , David Ludlum cites nine elections from 1840 to 1976 as having a weather influence. Of them, six involved weather conditions being favorable in Northeastern states (especially New York ) to the point where had foul weather occurred in those key states, the election outcome may have been changed. This includes the 1976 election, when Jimmy Carter defeated Gerald Ford by 54 electoral votes. Weather was mild in Ohio and Hawaii , two states where the election was very close. Had turnout been reduced because of adverse weather, the results of the election may have been different.

There are 3 other cases Ludlum cites where foul weather played a role, most notably 1916 (according to Ludlum) when Woodrow Wilson defeated Charles Evan Hughes, in part due to a very narrow victory in California . In the morning, a winter storm had dumped over a foot of snow in the mountainous areas of northeastern California , where Democratic support was strong. Had the storm lasted longer, Wilson may have received fewer votes from his supporters there, and the election could have changed.

2000 Election

Before the 2000 presidential election, both Democrats and Republicans were concerned about how the weather may impact voter turnout and their candidate's Election Day hopes. The principle concern was that bad weather in some key battleground states would cause some voters to stay home, and that whichever party was the dominant party in that state would be hurt the most.

How did weather play a role in voter turnout for the 2000 presidential election? Consider the following briefs.

The "Irritation" Factor

While much of the focus is often on how election day weather influences voter turnout, some other research has shown that aggregate weather patterns over a period of time could motivate voters to vote against the incumbent. One study by Princeton University Professors Christopher Achen and Larry Bartels focuses on seemingly irrational responses of voters to the flu, shark attacks, and long-term drought patterns. They found that voters seem to “punish” the incumbent when disasters (e.g., long-term droughts that may cause bad harvests) occur. This is not always attributable to rational arguments that the administration did a poor job of handling the aftermath of the disaster. Sometimes it is an irrational reaction.

Given the droughts in the western U.S. during summer 2004, this could suggest some problems for President Bush there, although his support has been running strong in the key states. Perhaps more of a concern is the swing state of Florida , where four hurricanes have made landfall during summer 2004. It remains to be seen how much (if at all) this factor will play a role there.

State Forecast Notes

Wyoming

In 1992 and 1996, voter turnout as percentage of registered voters averaged around 86-88%, and snowy weather prevailed on Election Day in both years. However, under clear skies for Election Day 2000, voter turnout came in at 99%. Admittedly, some of this increase was likely due to Wyoming native Dick Cheney being on the Republican ticket with George W. Bush, but the weather factor is difficult to ignore.

New Mexico

On Election Day 2000, winter storm warnings blanketed much of New Mexico early in the day, and the poor weather continued through the day. Voter turnout averaged 61% of registered voters, compared to 1996 when voter turnout was 66%. The winter weather may have helped play a role in this decrease, as some voters may not have wanted to brave the trip to the polling place.

Minnesota Voter turnout statewide averaged 75% of registered voters for Election Day 2000, up from the 71% turnout for 1996 and 72% in 1992. However, cold, wet, and blustery conditions prevailed for much of the day in some northern Minnesota counties. Two of these counties (Marshall and Pennington) had especially unpleasant weather, and voter turnout actually decreased in the face of increased voter turnout statewide.

Ohio

Statewide voter turnout in Ohio was down in 2000 (62% of registered voters) compared to 1996 (66%) and 1992 (76%), with some light rain scattered across the state. Other factors likely came into play here with the weather, though, as the rain was not that heavy, and the counties that saw rain did not see voter turnout decrease more than counties with no rain.

Pennsylvania

In 1996, voter turnout in western Pennsylvania was 2.4% higher than in eastern Pennsylvania . But in 2000, western Pennsylvania turnout was only 1.3% higher. Rain was present during much of the day in the west, and it's possible this could have had an influence.

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