To summarize:
If you believe the GOP insider posted at NRO:
we're winning men: 53-45
we're ahead with catholics in WI & PA
we get hispanics 40% (to 35% in 2000)
somewhere I was reading the early Dem rush is receding (maybe due to bad weather)
people say the GOP turnout around the country is higher than normal
So things looking more promising after all.
Interesting:
FROM MARY MATALIN [KJL]
I said to her, "The blogosphere is going batty." Her quick response, "Batty? Lord have mercy. One exit; bad model. Look to history. Early exits are never right. also read Mellman in the Hill today. The bloggers need to do some lamaze, open a bottle of good red, get ready to party."
Posted at 05:08 PM
NRO: RE: EXIT POLLS
[Mark Steyn]
Have a look at the Corner archives for Election Day 2002:
"Big turnout in New Hampshire—not a good sign... Early down arrows for Dole... Talent losing in MO... Townsend (arrgh!) looking good in MD..."
And that's just Rich.
The key word in the phrase "exit poll" is "poll": that's all it is.
I'm more concerned about those hard numbers from Dixville Notch: Bush 19 votes, Kerry 7. In 2000, it was Bush 21, Gore 5. If the Democrats maintain that 40% vote increase nationally, Texas is in play.