Posted on 11/02/2004 8:05:44 PM PST by Numbers Guy
I've taken the up to date Florida results and taken into account the percent of precincts outstanding in each county, then assigned the Bush/Gore percentage in each county to the outstanding votes.
Note: I did this same exercise four years ago, after the networks called Florida for Gore, and discovered that the outstanding votes indicated that it would be a dead heat, which it later proved to be. So this model has been tested.
Bush is up by 250,000 right now, and I believe that that margin will hold up +/- 10,000 with the outstanding precincts. Note: This is before the absentee ballots, which supposedly lean Republican, come in.
What this really means is that the major Democratic counties, Broward (88.5%), Palm Beach (52.5%), and Miami-Dade (94.7%) are mostly in. Palm Beach probably has another 200,000 votes outstanding, but the counties with the most votes outstanding other than Palm Beach are Polk (54.5% Bush in 2000), Seminole (56.1% Bush in 2000), Hillsborough (58.8% Bush in 2000), and Collier (66.9% Bush in 2000).
Note: My Bush in 2000 percentages are the percentage of the 2-party Bush-Gore vote, not including the others.
I think Florida is going to go to President Bush by a solid margin, probably 4%.
If so...Mason-Dixon hit it on the mark again. Lets hope it hold up!
Supposively there are 150,000 more Republican absentee ballots than Democrats. They have a huge uphill battle.
Great analysis. Exactly the numbers I was looking to see.
Make that 318,000 as of my post, 91% reporting.
I think the networks call FL for Bush before midnight. Any takers?
Very encouraging. Have you done Ohio?
What are they waiting for with Florida? Are they gunshy after 2000?
I think your right.
Bush is up 307,000 with 92% of precints in.
Greta says ACLU is filing lawsuit in Broward as I type
Been searching for an online source for number of electoral votes by state. What is Florida's total? Anyone know a site for this?
Yahoo only lists the totals once they have called the races.
GRRRRR!
Come on MSM - Call it for Bush.
That's my next project. It's just that I had a 2000 file from Florida all set for use.
http://www.pbcelections.org/ElectionResults/2004/General/Gen04_dtl.htm
PRESIDENT/VICE PRESIDENT
Completed Precincts: 587 of 695 (84.46%)
Vote Count Percent
REP - George W. Bush 152,857 38.21%
DEM - John F. Kerry 244,679 61.16%
add 100 to 150k for republican absentee ballots.
I bet not. They are going to cry, kick, and scream. Again.
Proof W will win FLA - liberals are suing.
Grounds? ("We don't need no steenkin' grounds.") I'm downstairs away from the tube.
Bush was up in 2000 with 90 some % of the precints in, and then the lead vaporized. I'm not getting excited until it is all in :) I do not need another ulcer.
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