Florida Number Crunching

Lotus 1-2-3 | 11/02/04 | Myself

[midftfan]

They just don't want to report good news for Bush. Clearly, with almost all of the precincts reporting in Florida, it's obvious Kerry won't be making a comeback. This state should already be called for Bush. Damn MSM!

[riri]

I'm in in the other room too. I need the serenity of the freepers not allowing too much naysaying. I live in a conservative bubble.

Something about absentee ballots.

[TexasPolitico]

It looks like to me that Florida is Bush's.

[Lyford]

Yeah. I've been looking at the same thing. I really don't understand why they haven't called Florida yet. Bush is outperforming his 2000 numbers in virtually every county. In the 35 counties that are 100% reported, he's got over 60% of the 2-party vote, where he took 57.7% 4 years ago. And his margin in those 35 counties is over 257000 votes compared to 147000 votes in 2000. I can't imagine what they're looking at that makes them think Florida's still in play...

[ThinkDifferent]

Bush now up over 300k with 92% in. It would take the opposite of a miracle for him not to win. FWIW tradesports has Florida for Bush at 90.

[Lyford]

Yeah. I've been looking at the same thing. I really don't understand why they haven't called Florida yet. Bush is outperforming his 2000 numbers in virtually every county. In the 35 counties that are 100% reported, he's got over 60% of the 2-party vote, where he took 57.7% 4 years ago. And his margin in those 35 counties is over 257000 votes compared to 147000 votes in 2000. I can't imagine what they're looking at that makes them think Florida's still in play...

[TexasPolitico]

Foxnews.com has a great map.

[ConservativeLawyer]

Seminole County will be a 31,000 vote bump for Bush. Its on their SOE website, just not uploaded to the Sec. of State yet.

[Cu Roi]

Thanks...I came to FR tonight looking for exactly this kind of post.

[Pearls Before Swine]

Something about absentee ballots.

Actually, that's a reasonable complaint, but it won't make any difference, because the margin is too large. It would bother me more if the suit were part of a big DNC scheme.

[6ppc]

I calculated a win for W by around 50,000 votes a few minutes ago based on the remaining votes in Broward, Palm Beach and Miami/Dade.

[Numbers Guy]

Bush was up in 2000 with 90 some % of the precints in, and then the lead vaporized

That was a 50,000 vote lead, and the AP had screwed up and counted a pro-Bush county twice in their statewide summary. That's what took it from a clear Bush win to "too close to call" after 2 a.m. in 2000. This analysis doesn't double count any counties because it's the sum of each individual county's results.

[bicyclerepair]

THANK YOU PEOPLE ! YOU ARE HELPING ME KEEP MY SANITY !

(see my tagline)

[I got the rope]

I think your right. The absentees may make this margin greater. I'm worried about Martinez. It doesn't look good for the Cuban born trial-lawyer.

[Ichneumon]

Quick, someone post this to DU, I love watching their heads explode.

[Frank_2001]

A margin like that is uncontestable IMO. GO W!!!!

[crushelits]

Florida

= Projected Winner

President  (6864 of 7241 Precincts Reporting)   • Exit Poll    • County Results

	Party	Candidate	Votes	V%
	R	George BUSH	3,481,754	52%
	D	John KERRY	3,178,350	47%
	I	Ralph NADER	29,650	1%
	LB	Michael BADNARIK	10,526	0%
	I	Michael PEROUTKA	6,074	0%
	GR	David COBB	3,976	0%
	I	Walter BROWN	3,349	0%
	I	James HARRIS	2,608	0%

U.S. Senate  (6824 of 7241 Precincts Reporting)   • Exit Poll    • County Results

	Party	Candidate	Votes	V%
	R	Mel MARTINEZ	3,208,754	49%
	D	Betty CASTOR	3,170,020	49%
			148,635	2%

U.S. House  (247 of 248 Precincts Reporting)   • County Results

	Party	Candidate	Votes	V%
	R	Jeff MILLER	224,169	77%
	D	Mark COUTU	66,699	23%

U.S. House  (352 of 357 Precincts Reporting)   • County Results

	Party	Candidate	Votes	V%
	D	Allen BOYD	197,834	62%
	R	Bev KILMER	123,391	38%

U.S. House  (0 of Precincts Reporting)   

	Party	Candidate	Votes	V%
	D	Corrine BROWN	0	0%

U.S. House  (0 of Precincts Reporting)   

	Party	Candidate	Votes	V%
	R	Ander CRENSHAW	0	0%

U.S. House  (294 of 295 Precincts Reporting)   • County Results

	Party	Candidate	Votes	V%
	R	Virginia BROWN-WAITE	220,913	66%
	D	Robert WHITTEL	114,070	34%

U.S. House  (295 of 300 Precincts Reporting)   • County Results

	Party	Candidate	Votes	V%
	R	Cliff STEARNS	188,528	64%
	D	David BRUDERLY	106,935	36%

U.S. House  (0 of Precincts Reporting)   

	Party	Candidate	Votes	V%
	R	John MICA	0	0%

U.S. House  (240 of 241 Precincts Reporting)   • County Results

	Party	Candidate	Votes	V%
	R	Ric KELLER	147,725	60%
	D	Stephen MURRAY	98,891	40%

U.S. House  (0 of 252 Precincts Reporting)   • County Results

	Party	Candidate	Votes	V%
	R	Michael BILIRAKIS	0	0%

U.S. House  (246 of 259 Precincts Reporting)   • County Results

	Party	Candidate	Votes	V%
	R	C. W. Bill YOUNG	203,610	69%
	D	Bob DERRY	89,560	31%

U.S. House  (202 of 232 Precincts Reporting)   • County Results

	Party	Candidate	Votes	V%
	D	Jim DAVIS	165,672	86%
	LB	Robert JOHNSON	27,131	14%

U.S. House  (208 of 225 Precincts Reporting)   • County Results

	Party	Candidate	Votes	V%
	R	Adam PUTNAM	137,996	65%
	D	Bob HAGENMAIER	75,784	35%

U.S. House  (326 of 327 Precincts Reporting)   • County Results

	Party	Candidate	Votes	V%
	R	Katherine HARRIS	168,789	55%
	D	Jan SCHNEIDER	136,462	45%

U.S. House  (267 of 267 Precincts Reporting)   • County Results

	Party	Candidate	Votes	V%
	R	Connie MACK	195,177	68%
	D	Robert NEELD	93,347	32%

U.S. House  (312 of 313 Precincts Reporting)   • County Results

	Party	Candidate	Votes	V%
	R	Dave WELDON	202,550	65%
	D	Simon PRISTOOP	107,744	35%

U.S. House  (265 of 315 Precincts Reporting)   • County Results

	Party	Candidate	Votes	V%
	R	Mark FOLEY	151,508	67%
	D	Jeff FISHER	76,113	33%

U.S. House  (0 of 244 Precincts Reporting)   • County Results

	Party	Candidate	Votes	V%
	D	Kendrick MEEK	0	0%

U.S. House  (285 of 293 Precincts Reporting)   • County Results

	Party	Candidate	Votes	V%
	R	Ileana ROS-LEHTINEN	128,170	65%
	D	Sam SHELDON	69,666	35%

U.S. House  (0 of 324 Precincts Reporting)   • County Results

	Party	Candidate	Votes	V%
	D	Robert WEXLER	0	0%

U.S. House  (407 of 421 Precincts Reporting)   • County Results

	Party	Candidate	Votes	V%
	D	Debbie WASSERMAN SCHULTZ	180,711	70%
	R	Margaret HOSTETTER	76,395	30%

U.S. House  (209 of 225 Precincts Reporting)   • County Results

	Party	Candidate	Votes	V%
	R	Lincoln DIAZ-BALART	126,904	72%
	LB	Frank GONZALEZ	48,222	28%

U.S. House  (390 of 448 Precincts Reporting)   • County Results

	Party	Candidate	Votes	V%
	R	Clay SHAW	150,989	62%
	D	Jim STORK	86,641	36%
	CS	Jack MCLAIN	4,190	2%

U.S. House  (0 of 318 Precincts Reporting)   • County Results

	Party	Candidate	Votes	V%
	D	Alcee HASTINGS	0	0%

U.S. House  (0 of 233 Precincts Reporting)   • County Results

	Party	Candidate	Votes	V%
	R	Tom FEENEY	0	0%

U.S. House  (0 of 174 Precincts Reporting)   • County Results

	Party	Candidate	Votes	V%
	R	Mario DIAZ-BALART	0	0%

Teen Abortion Notification  (6795 of 7241 Precincts Reporting)   • County Results

	Votes	V%
YES	4,052,082	65%
NO	2,221,357	35%

[Bonaparte]

In this case, the ACLU should be upheld. Broward screwed up and failed to mail absentee ballots to tens of thousands of voters. The deadline should be extended for those voters, even if it leaves the outcome of the whole election in doubt for a couple more weeks. This is one of the rare times I find myself in agreement with the ACLU. Of course, if Bush is ahead in Florida by, say, 100,000 votes at 2 am, it would be pointless to delay certification of the result.

[riri]

Of course, if Bush is ahead in Florida by, say, 100,000 votes at 2 am, it would be pointless to delay certification of the result

Won't stop them though.

I am just stressing Ohio now.

[Kimlee]

Gotcha, Numbers Guy, Thanks :) I just would like it to be called before I breathe again :)