Posted on 11/02/2004 10:25:46 PM PST by Numbers Guy
A couple notes on Ohio.
Well, first, the results were set up in a way that made it very difficult to input them, so it took forever to set up a spreadsheet.
Bush is running almost even with how he did in various counties in 2000. Since he won by 3.7% in 2000, that points to a similar margin this year.
Outstanding votes? Okay, the official SecState website is behind AP and so forth, but let's go with their numbers (because I spent an hour setting up a spreadsheet to FIT their way of reporting, dangit). The official site has Bush up 180,000 with about 80% of the vote in (62% of Cuyahoga reporting)
Let's leave aside Cuyahoga. The other outstanding votes, in non-Cuyahoga counties, based on the 2000 tally, look to be dead even.
So we're talking a Bush 180,000 lead with just under 40% of the Cuyahoga vote outstanding (the official site has Kerry up by 109,000 so far). There are probably about 250,000 outstanding votes in Cuyahoga. Bush generally takes about 1/3rd of Cuyahoga. So we would expect Kerry to gain 80,000 from the remaining votes. I can see no way that Kerry gains over 100,000 from the remaining votes.
So that all puts Bush up by at least 80,000. They can whine about provisional ballots all they want, but they ain't catching up.
That's likely the reason that Fox and NBC have called it for Bush.
Thank you for your analysis.
Thanks
Bush has gained slightly to 130,000.
Don't forget that Hamilton County (Cinci) only has 57.35% reporting in that same list.
They just said on FOX that there are about 140,000 or 150,000 provisional ballots out...and speculate that it will split roughly how the entire state split.
I ran a similar analysis, constantly updating and projecting in unfinished counties. I come up with Bush up +106,000 when it's all done.
just updated. Now that I have the sheet set up it's a lot easier.
Official site now has Bush up 125,000 with about 86% of the vote in.
87% of Cuyahoga now in, Kerry up 180,000. Straightline projection would indicate Kerry could gain another 28,000.
Lots of Claremont County still out there, 2/3rds Bush, probably a gain for Bush of 15,000.
57% of Hamilton County in, Bush likely to gain another 15,000.
Lucas County is Kerry's new big hope, only 35% in, about 60-40 Kerry, Kerry could gain 50,000.
Summit County, about 55-45 Kerry, 15,000 gain for Kerry.
Warren County, 70-30 Bush, 10,000 gain for Bush.
net gain with all smaller counties, 40,000 for Kerry.
Final projection, Bush to win Ohio by 80-100,000
Here are the outstanding republican counties in OH.
Ashland, Auglaize, Clermont, Coshocton, Hamilton, Knox, Lawrence, Medina, Tuscarawas, Vinton, Warren, Washington
For Kerry, not much left....
Cuyahoga (90% in), Lucas, Summit,
Updated with CNN numbers:
CNN has Bush up 102,000 with about 92% of the vote in.
Cuyahoga now in, Kerry up 218,000. No further gain.
Lots of Claremont County still out there, 2/3rds Bush, probably a gain for Bush of 15,000.
57% of Hamilton County in, Bush likely to gain another 15,000.
Lucas County is NO LONGER Kerry's new big hope, 90% in, about 60-40 Kerry, has not much more to gain, maybe 3,000.
Summit County, about 55-45 Kerry, 5,000 gain for Kerry.
Warren County, 70-30 Bush, 8,000 gain for Bush.
net gain with all smaller counties, a definite gain for Bush.
Revised (again) projection, Bush to win Ohio by 110,000-120,000
The key point is that as more and more votes come in, especially now that Cuyahoga's off the charts, that means Bush is going to have a clear substantial margin of victory.
Put a cork in it. Combining the SecState and CNN county by county sites, Bush is currently up 2.70 million to 2.58 million (122,000). Even more importantly, the outstanding counties are about 56-44 Republican. Bush should win Ohio by at least 130,000 (I keep on changing my final margin, but at least it's been consistently over 100,000).
No automatic recount unless the margin is .25%
K/E have no hand.
http://election.sos.state.oh.us/Results/RaceSummary.aspx
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