Roosting Chickens, and Results from the 2004 Election

2 Nov., 2004 | John Armor (Congressman Billybob)

[Robert A Cook PE]

Subtle.

Accurate!

[KOZ.]

my prediction..... Congressman Billybob running for Congress :)

[neverdem]

You got this veteran nailed. The 35% of veterans for Kerry are probably almost all formerly drafted veterans and lifelong dems.

[Constitution Day]

Congressman Billybob's latest!

Please FRmail Constitution Day, TaxRelief OR Helms if you want to be added to or removed from this North Carolina ping list.

[Alia]

Excellent analysis, Congressman Billybob! There's one point you didn't bring up: You aren't having to kiss up or suck up to an MSM agenda, in order to keep your job, or get a promotion.

I did some interviewing here in NC -- I found among sensible Kerry supporters -- their lament and wish AFL-CIO Unions would come to NC. I pointed how, very succintly and point by point -- HOW UNIONS BANKRUPTED CALIFORNIA. And how forced Union Members have to pay "dues" against their will when those very dues are being used in political ways which are totally against an individual's political choices. All they could do is stare at me blankly. It was clear, these people had NO CONCEPT of how Unions have been destroying the economies of numerous cities, counties and possibly states in the United States.

[Mike Fieschko]

When the political scientists finish analyzing this election, here’s what they will find: Unions are the both the money and volunteer backbones of the Democrat Party. But unions have been shrinking steadily in their percentage in the population. Union households are now only about 14 percent of all households. On the other hand, households which have a veteran in them are now about 26 percent of all households.

These demographic changes have been occurring for some time, and it is correct to note them.

Have you pondered the Roe Effect?

From the article:

[The Roe Effect is] "theory is that abortion is making America more conservative than it otherwise would be.

"[Assuming that] liberal and Democratic women are more likely to have abortions. [And] that children's political views tend to reflect those of their parents ... on average. Thus abortion depletes the next generation of liberals and eventually makes the population more conservative."

[Gritty]

Nice article. How you managed to write up something coherent like this at three something in the morning is beyond me. Even Brit Hume was unable to do simple addition or subtraction and stay awake by then, much less write about it.

Don't feel too bad about the innaccuracies of some of your predictions, Congressman. You had the trend nailed and the direction zeroed. Even the Great Zogby missed those! Dick Cheney told us the numbers two weeks ago and we should have listened to him, 52-48.

But you probably could not have anticipated in your wildest dreams a scant two months ago just how deeply the MSM were in the tank for their stooges and the lengths they would go to throw this election to their friends. If it weren't for their stellar help, your 10% prediction would have held or been exceeded, IMHO.

The fact this election was so close when the other side was running such a dud should just give us pause to reflect on how much more serious work is needed to be done in this country to ensure our survival as a free people.

[weegee]

The numbers for Nevada county got as high as 144% of the public voting. Surprisingly the website shows 100% today.

[NCSteve]

Is that so difficult? I don't think so.

Your results are pretty good, John. Predicting the outcomes of elections is a lot harder than most people realize. It requires a modicum of common sense and a willingness to listen to what Joe Sixpack is actually saying (or in some cases, what he is not saying).

So on two accounts, journalists fail those criteria. First, common sense. These are the people who Mark Twain advised us failed at ditching and shoe making. We cannot possibly hold expectations of journalists that are too low. Second, willingness to listen. Journalists substitute ego for brains. Listening to Joe Sixpack means they might actually have to come in close contact with said entity. Since they aren't likely to do that at a Washington/New York/Chicago/Los Angeles cocktail party, the very idea is just too low to contemplate. They would much prefer having someone collect exit polls for them so they can pontificate at a safe distance.

As much regard as I have for Brit Hume, for example, he was genuinely horrified last night when it turned out that exit polling data was utterly and completely bogus. He looked like a man caught with a flat tire and no tools.

Until and unless the media leave their elitism behind, they will continue to drift further and further out of touch with the reality of American politics. I have no solution for the overall mental acuity of the press, maybe it is our fault because we demand so little of them. On the bright side, elections should get more entertaining every cycle as we can now open up the office pool to bet on just how wrong the media's predictions will be.

[cgk]

144%?? I went to bed around 112 or 116%. After I emailed the link to all media I could think of and let the Secy of State's website know I had done so. Nevada County, CA lost 25,000 votes somewhere they had previously counted... must've gone over to NM to help Richardson in that one county that was going 100% for Kerry last night. Makes me ill!

[weegee]

County Name Nevada
Total Precincts 138
Precincts Rpt'g 138
% Rpt'g 100
Reg'd Voters 65,411
Ballots Cast 94,281
% Turnout 144.1
First Report Date-Time 2 8:11pm
Latest Report Date-Time 3 2:15am
Report Type*F

[cgk]

Wow. Just... WOW. I never found out how they voted - did you?

[weegee]

There was a suspicious event in New Mexico last night as well.

One county (Bernalillo County) showed 20,000 votes for Kerry, NONE for Bush. Heck, NONE for any of the other races.

More votes were eventually added to all of the races but did Kerry get an illegal 20k BUMP?

http://65.160.159.96/County2.htm

[weegee]

I think that the New Mexico result came from 1 precinct reporting before all of the others. Shouldn't be hard to determine JUST WHICH precinct that was. Looks like a county may have been stolen from Bush.

[cgk]

I remember that. A lot of shenanigans last night. And it made no sense, and we'll never hear "the rest of the story."

But we headed off so many of them before they hit (NAACP crack the vote, for one). I'm glad we're more vigilant now. Election 2000 gave us lessons put to good use this time around. For both sides. They can't use that "no mandate" nonsense this time.

[weegee]

I want to find that 28,000 For Kerry ZERO FOR BUSH OR ANY OTHER RACE precinct.

All I can find are the results of the county, not the individual precincts (414).

http://65.160.159.96/County2.htm

http://www.cabq.gov/

http://www.bernco.gov//upload/images/clerk/general04/completeResults.html

http://www.bernco.gov/upload/images/clerk/general04/resultsPage1.html

[cgk]

I was looking for that info as well - it is NOWHERE to be found.

We'll never know the precinct that had 100% turnout for Kerry. Because nobody cares, and noone will believe it anyway.

They'll say "Who cares? Bush already won NM. "

Drives me crazy.

[weegee]

At least we have the evidence of 144% turnout in a California county.

[Congressman Billybob]

Evening, my friend, Here's the secret: I wrote the article 24 hours in advance, with blanks for the applicable numbers and percentages from the election itself. That was based on the assumption that my general premises would prove correct.

So the hard part was waiting and watching until 4 a.m. when some real numbers were clear, not the process of writing the article since that was already known. Working Rule #2: there is usually an easier way to a result. The hard part is finding it, not using it.

Cheers.

Billybob

[Delphinium]

Is that so difficult? I don't think so

No it is not.

I am a woman with little, or no formal education who understands this stuff.

I am proud to say I understood so well that I planned and executed a campaign with little, or no help,(or money) except my candidate, and we took out one of the last democrats standing in Idaho.

He was a popular, 8 term democrat and I was told several times by republicans who supported him, it was impossible to beat him.

Maybe this is one of the 121 seats at the state level you predicted.