GOP Senate Gains in 2006 May Overshadow gains in 2004 (analysis)

November 4th, 2004 | Remember_Salamis

[California Patriot]

Serious problems with this analysis. One, Byrd will not retire. Two, Feinstein says she will not retire -- although I think she might. However, it is far from a given that Arnold will run for re-election. If he doesn't, he will have no impact on the Senate race. (Even if he does run, it is far from clear that Arnold can carry any Republican to victory in a Senate contest -- he had ZERO impact on the various Democratic open seats in the Legislature this year.) Three, Giuliani is not interested in being a senator. He wants an executive role. And no one else can beat Hillary. Four, why can Nethercutt beat Cantwell if he didn't come at all close to beating Murray, who is the one with the left-wing image? Five, on what basis do you regard Bingaman as highly vulnerable? Finally, on the bright side,
given demonstrated GOP strength in the South all the way down the ballot, I think you concede Frist's seat to the Dems far too easily.

[California Patriot]

And there are other problems. The New Jersey scenario is highly doubtful. Gubernatorial and Senate races are not linked, nor are former governors and sitting senators.
Corzine will run as a reformer and be elected governor next fall, more likely than not. He will then be appointing a Democratic senator, who will probably win. If Corzine somehow loses the governor's race, he will be re-elected senator. In no case will the McGreevey sleaze lose the Senate seat for the Dems. In a state like Minnesota or Iowa or Oregon, there could conceivably be an impact. But there, you're talking relatively intelligent, conscientious electorates. Not typical of the urban Northeast.

Whatever Lt. Governor Michael Steele's appeal, electing a GOP senator from Maryland will be extremely difficult.

And finally, Jeb Bush recently said he will not run for the Florida seat. Nelson may be somewhat vulnerable, but Jeb is presumably the strongest candidate, and I'll take him at his word.

[Figment]

etirement, Loss- Bill Frist of Tennessee - Frist will retire, as he has pledged, and conservative democrat Harold Ford jr. will win the seat. I’m not saying that Republican congressman Wamp can’t win the seat, but he can’t compete with Ford’s star power.

No chance in hell that Ford could win a statewide seat. The Ford family owns a gerrymandered congressional district and that's all he'll amount to

[Figment]

Don't underestimate Ford, he's a different kind of Democrat who is very popular and likable...enough so that he could easily pull a majority in TN against a not-so-strong Republican challenger.


Ford is not at all popular outside his district.The republican field will be strong in 06 with Blackburn and Ed Bryant likely frontrunners. The Fords will likely keep "their" congressional seat

[Remember_Salamis]

I think the Dems are going to pursue a strategy of merely establishing celebrities within the Democratic Party: Hillary, Obama, Ford, etc.

The biggest concern for the Dems right now, in my opinion, is the black vote. If the Democrats lost the Black vote, we would get a veto-proof House and Senate. IF the Dems can get two smiling black faces in the Senate (Obama and Ford), they can compete with Bush's multicultural Cabinet.

In all types of organizations, there is a strategy called "retrenchment". The Dems want to stop the bleeding right now (or at least slow it down) while preventing us from getting 60 senate seats. They will wait for us to get overconfident, then strike. But for such a long-term process, the party needs young leadership. Look around the Democratic Party: nearly all of their members are baby boomers, and the younger ones are simply unelectable (student radicals). College Republicans, on the other hand, have tripled their membership since 9/11.

The best strategy for the Dems to take is to curl up in a ball and try not to get kicked i nthe face. But if they are to emerge eventually, they will need young leadership.