Tired of waiting for the election? (the predictors that did and didn't work)

filibuster cartoons dot com ^ | 11-2004

[doug from upland]

Tired of waiting for election day?

Inevitably, every four years all sorts of different "experts" will spring up, each claiming to know the single best way to predict who will win the US Presidential Election. This usually involves pointing to some obscure poll, survey, or historical precedent that has apparently always been correct ever since election X way back when.

Here are some of the most commonly-cited predictors that have an unbroken track record of legitimacy. There are many others as well, but most of those have been wrong at least once. These ones have been 100% accurate up till now:

Poll / Predictor	Accurate since:	Favored in 2004:
The Republican must win Ohio	1861	Bush
Weekly Reader's children's poll	1956	Bush
How Missouri votes	1956	Bush
The Democratic candidate must be from the South to be elected President	1964	Bush
How Tennessee votes	1964	Bush
How Ohio votes	1964	Bush
How Arkansas votes	1972	Bush
The official prediction of Charles Schwab's Washington Research Group	1976	Bush
Yale Economist Ray Fair's formula of determining the winner through economic statistics	1980	Bush
Halloween mask sales (as counted by Buycostumes.com)	1980	Bush
Betting odds, as recorded by the Iowa Electronic Market (link)	1988	Bush
Family Circle first lady cookie bake-off, followed by cookie popularity poll	1992	Bush

Predictors which were voided in 2004

When Senator John Kerry lost the 2004 Presidential election several longstanding election-predicting traditions proved they were no longer reliable:

Poll / Predictor	Accurate since:	Favored in 2004:
Outcome of the Washington Redskins' final home game before the election (if they win, so does the incumbent party)	1936	Kerry
The President's approval rating must be above 50% to be re-elected.	1956	Kerry
Nickelodeon's "Kids' Vote"	1988	Kerry

How wrong were the poll sites?

There were a ton of sites in 2004 who all claimed to have established an authoritative method of predicting the outcome of the electoral college. They used elaborate mathematical formulas and charts that averaged polls and calculated voter trends. They even claimed to be able to predict how the undecideds would break, and how the swing states would swing.

So how reliable did the inter-web prove itself? Here's what the leading electoral college sites predicted on November first.

Site	Prediction
electionprojection.com	Bush win (286)
electoral-vote.com	Kerry win (306)
election.princeton.edu	Kerry win (311)
pollkatz.homestead.com	Kerry win (287)
race2004.net	Bush win (289)
Salon.com	Tie (269-269)

 

 

[TheWyzzyrd]

Thank goodness this one (the second oldest) was wrong.. "Outcome of the Washington Redskins' final home game before the election
(if they win, so does the incumbent party)"
.

[So Cal Rocket]

LA Lakers in NBA Finals means Republican wins White House: Accurate since 1960

[Redmen4ever]

No four-letter president had ever been re-elected (Polk, Taft, Bush) - Kerry

No father or son of father-son presidents had ever been elected (Adams and Adams, Bush of Bush and Bush) - Kerry

All '00 presidents were re-elected (Jefferson and Roosevelt) - Bush

[TruthShallSetYouFree]

election.princeton.edu

Kerry win (311)

I thought you had to be smart to get into Princeton.

[weegee]

Nickelodeon's "Kid's Vote" was an online poll. We all know that the DNC told supporters to flood the media with glowing praise for Kerry's debate performance (some sent emails to the Washington Post telling how GREAT Kerry was BEFORE the debate had even started).

Needless to say, those online polls all skewed heavily towards John Kerry.

Is there any doubt that ADULTS voted in CBS-VIACOM's Nickelodeon poll?

Meanwhile Weekly Reader and other student based polls were out of the reach of the DU trolls giving us a truer accounting of what young people had to "say" (which generally reflects their parents' politics).

It was all so much bullzogby.

[weegee]

We also used to hear about the ZERO factor, if you were elected in a year ending in zero, you did not survive your first term.

Ronald Reagan showed that "statistics" like these have no bearing on the outcome of future events. George W. Bush is the second president to survive it.

[weegee]

The President's approval rating must be above 50% to be re-elected.

These were as biased as the "exit polls" and Zogby data leading to the election.

Garbage in / Garbage out.

[WinOne4TheGipper]

You're last one is wrong. It was McKinley who was re-elected in 1900 and then assassinated in 1901. How about no two consecutive presidents have served two full terms since it was accomplished by Jefferson-Madison-Monroe?

[WinOne4TheGipper]

Actually, no. The "twenty year curse" happened as followed...

William Henry Harrison (elected 1840)- Died a month after taking office.

Abraham Lincoln (elected 1860, re-elected 1865)- Assassinated shortly after being inaugurated for his second term.

James Garfield (elected 1880)- Assassinated several months after taking office.

William McKinley (elected 1896, re-elected 1900)- Assaniated in the first year of his second term.

Warren Harding (elected 1920)- Died in 1923.

Franklin Roosevelt (elected 1932, Re-elected 1936, 1940, 1944)- Died in the first year of his fourth term.

John Kennedy (elected 1960)- Assassinated 1963.

Ronald Reagan (elected 1980, Re-elected 1984)- Survived the curse, but was nearly killed by an assassin and had cancer surgery in 1985.

George W. Bush (elected 2000, re-elected 2004) No major health problems.


As you can see, many who were struck by the curse survived their first term.

[plushaye]

Burke's Peerage claimed Kerry had more 'blue blood' in him than President Bush so Kerry would win, just like the President won over Gore in 2000. That claim just bit the dust.

[Socratic]

"Burke's Peerage claimed Kerry had more 'blue blood' in him than President Bush..."

I guess we have a President without peer!

[GraniteStateConservative]

Since the New Hampshire Primary began in its current form, no president has lost re-election when they failed to face serious opposition in the New Hampshire Primary-- starting with Ike in 1956.

"The taller candidate wins the popular vote" failed this year.