Posted on 11/07/2004 7:08:59 AM PST by motife
The Daily Recycler
Bush's Landslide: Or, How Kerry Won Ohio
In 2000 Bush received 329,708 votes in West Virginia. Gore received 291,088.
In 2004 there were 118,996 more voters than in 2000.
Of those new voters 88,443 voted for Bush and 30,553 went for Kerry; Which is a net gain of 57,890 for Bush in 2004.
We applied the same formula to all 50 states, and declared a winner of each state's electoral votes based on who won the difference in 2004 over 2000.
Kerry had a built-in advantage in that there was a substantial shift away from Ralph Nader during the last four years that favored him. Nevertheless, Bush devastated Kerry inside these margins.
When the new data is applied to the electoral college, this is what it looks like:
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Portrait of the Paranoid Mind
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1 HI ----- 45.63% ----- 37.79% ----- 7.84%
2 RI ----- 39.14% ----- 32.23% ----- 6.91%
3 NJ ----- 46.62% ----- 40.54% ----- 6.08%
4 AL ----- 62.69% ----- 56.97% ----- 5.73%
5 TN ----- 57.01% ----- 51.46% ----- 5.55%
6 CT ----- 44.40% ----- 38.92% ----- 5.47%
7 NY ----- 40.58% ----- 35.58% ----- 5.00%
8 OK ----- 65.56% ----- 61.08% ----- 4.48%
9 MA ----- 37.30% ----- 32.92% ----- 4.38%
10 NE ----- 66.98% ----- 62.86% ----- 4.11%
11 WV ----- 56.22% ----- 52.36% ----- 3.87%
12 LA ----- 57.17% ----- 53.30% ----- 3.86%
13 DE ----- 45.92% ----- 42.16% ----- 3.76%
14 KS ----- 62.53% ----- 58.84% ----- 3.69%
15 UT ----- 72.01% ----- 68.32% ----- 3.69%
16 AZ ----- 55.26% ----- 51.67% ----- 3.58%
17 FL ----- 52.30% ----- 49.18% ----- 3.12%
18 MD ----- 43.54% ----- 40.42% ----- 3.12%
19 IN ----- 60.54% ----- 57.51% ----- 3.04%
20 KY ----- 59.71% ----- 56.86% ----- 2.85%
21 MO ----- 53.67% ----- 50.86% ----- 2.81%
22 GA ----- 58.42% ----- 55.69% ----- 2.73%
23 CA ----- 44.79% ----- 42.11% ----- 2.69%
24 AR ----- 54.65% ----- 52.02% ----- 2.63%
25 IL ----- 45.01% ----- 42.86% ----- 2.15%
26 NM ----- 50.31% ----- 48.18% ----- 2.13%
27 PA ----- 48.87% ----- 46.84% ----- 2.03%
28 AK ----- 62.80% ----- 60.84% ----- 1.96%
29 TX ----- 61.51% ----- 59.64% ----- 1.87%
30 MS ----- 59.93% ----- 58.12% ----- 1.81%
31 MN ----- 47.92% ----- 46.15% ----- 1.77%
32 MI ----- 48.03% ----- 46.42% ----- 1.61%
33 IA ----- 50.26% ----- 48.71% ----- 1.54%
34 WI ----- 49.53% ----- 48.06% ----- 1.47%
35 VA ----- 54.35% ----- 52.96% ----- 1.39%
36 SC ----- 58.49% ----- 57.30% ----- 1.20%
37 WA ----- 46.04% ----- 45.08% ----- 0.95%
38 OR ----- 48.03% ----- 47.22% ----- 0.81%
39 CO ----- 52.34% ----- 51.58% ----- 0.76%
40 OH ----- 51.25% ----- 50.51% ----- 0.74%
41 ND ----- 63.14% ----- 62.53% ----- 0.61%
42 ME ----- 45.02% ----- 44.53% ----- 0.50%
43 NV ----- 51.03% ----- 50.55% ----- 0.48%
44 NH ----- 48.99% ----- 48.67% ----- 0.32%
45 DC ----- 9.31% ----- 9.01% ----- 0.30%
46 ID ----- 69.29% ----- 69.06% ----- 0.23%
47 WY ----- 69.50% ----- 69.44% ----- 0.06%
48 MT ----- 59.66% ----- 59.78% ----- -0.12%
49 NC ----- 56.29% ----- 56.46% ----- -0.18%
50 SD ----- 60.23% ----- 61.61% ----- -1.38%
51 VT ----- 39.10% ----- 41.42% ----- -2.32%
It would be interesting to extrapolate the 2000-2004 Bush/Kerry vote trends to figure out which states will be red and which states blue in '08.
This is very interesting. Thank you much for posting!
1 FL ----- 7,563,055 ----- 5,922,531 ----- 1,640,524
2 TX ----- 7,346,779 ----- 6,371,379 ----- 975,400
3 OH ----- 5,455,811 ----- 4,655,256 ----- 800,555
4 PA ----- 5,640,194 ----- 4,870,486 ----- 769,708
5 GA ----- 3,235,030 ----- 2,549,382 ----- 685,648
6 MI ----- 4,802,252 ----- 4,207,722 ----- 594,530
7 NC ----- 3,395,094 ----- 2,888,855 ----- 506,239
8 IL ----- 5,140,172 ----- 4,712,206 ----- 427,966
9 WI ----- 2,982,381 ----- 2,574,336 ----- 408,045
10 MN ----- 2,807,269 ----- 2,404,621 ----- 402,648
11 MO ----- 2,706,594 ----- 2,339,577 ----- 367,017
12 TN ----- 2,423,945 ----- 2,063,450 ----- 360,495
13 VA ----- 3,067,452 ----- 2,714,178 ----- 353,274
14 CO ----- 2,041,078 ----- 1,713,409 ----- 327,669
15 IN ----- 2,435,374 ----- 2,166,347 ----- 269,027
16 KY ----- 1,791,023 ----- 1,534,582 ----- 256,441
17 OK ----- 1,463,732 ----- 1,218,613 ----- 245,119
18 NJ ----- 3,405,428 ----- 3,167,577 ----- 237,851
19 AL ----- 1,873,119 ----- 1,652,107 ----- 221,012
20 NV ----- 813,096 ----- 596,561 ----- 216,535
21 SC ----- 1,579,951 ----- 1,371,698 ----- 208,253
22 OR ----- 1,713,908 ----- 1,511,276 ----- 202,632
23 MA ----- 2,861,079 ----- 2,668,553 ----- 192,526
24 LA ----- 1,926,517 ----- 1,740,688 ----- 185,829
25 IA ----- 1,485,544 ----- 1,302,264 ----- 183,280
26 MD ----- 2,186,477 ----- 2,013,347 ----- 173,130
27 NM ----- 739,841 ----- 594,451 ----- 145,390
28 MS ----- 1,119,687 ----- 985,580 ----- 134,107
29 AZ ----- 1,643,538 ----- 1,512,638 ----- 130,900
30 NY ----- 6,884,539 ----- 6,755,101 ----- 129,438
31 AR ----- 1,036,866 ----- 909,129 ----- 127,737
32 NH ----- 675,314 ----- 562,105 ----- 113,209
33 CT ----- 1,547,297 ----- 1,441,561 ----- 105,736
34 ID ----- 589,174 ----- 487,866 ----- 101,308
35 WV ----- 743,743 ----- 642,652 ----- 101,091
36 UT ----- 850,749 ----- 753,999 ----- 96,750
37 ME ----- 733,760 ----- 643,694 ----- 90,066
38 KS ----- 1,147,399 ----- 1,057,694 ----- 89,705
39 SD ----- 386,087 ----- 309,504 ----- 76,583
40 HI ----- 425,427 ----- 364,754 ----- 60,673
41 DE ----- 373,569 ----- 325,663 ----- 47,906
42 MT ----- 444,979 ----- 401,741 ----- 43,238
43 NE ----- 725,294 ----- 690,182 ----- 35,112
44 ND ----- 310,401 ----- 279,622 ----- 30,779
45 WY ----- 240,483 ----- 213,053 ----- 27,430
46 VT ----- 308,757 ----- 289,171 ----- 19,586
47 RI ----- 413,051 ----- 405,115 ----- 7,936
48 DC ----- 204,201 ----- 200,572 ----- 3,629
49 WA ----- 2,455,593 ----- 2,459,518 ----- (3,925)
50 AK ----- 241,830 ----- 275,149 ----- (33,319)
51 CA ----- 9,830,550 ----- 10,847,339 ----- (1,016,789)
tot ST ----- 116,214,483 ----- 104,338,854 ----- 11,875,629
The matchup makes a huge difference.. I don't think you can project for 2008 based on 00 and 04.
For example, Kerry beat Bush by over a million votes in NY, so closing the gap by another 300 thousand wouldn't flip NY from blue to red in '08.
On the other hand, Kerry beat Bush by less than 200 thousand in Michigan, so another 567 thousand net Republican votes puts Michigan in the red column in '08. A similar analysis shows NJ going from blue to red in '08.
Yes, I know. I'm just playing with the numbers. ;-)
election results ping
The States Kerry put significant resources into, he did better in. But those states are few in number. He ignored the South and West and even half of the northeast. Without additional Media help, he would have been slaughtered across the board.
LOL and Nevada is statisticlly a tie!
Here's a little something for Dems to ponder...
IT's amazing that most of the states on Kerry's list did have substantial support for Nader 4 years ago. i.e. Oregon, Minnesota, Vermont...etc.
Your numbers remind me of when I realized the exit poll numbers were bogus. Indiana comes in very fast, and it was clear by 7:30 EST, just 30 minutes after the polls closed, that President Bush was running a couple of points ahead of his 2000 margin. At about the same time, the President was running a point or two behind his 2000 performance in Kentucky. But it was instantly apparent that most of Louisville had reported at a time when only a quarter or so of statewide returns were in, as demonstrated by the fact that about 80% of Anne Northup's district had reported. So I felt that Bush would end up outperforming his 2000 numbers in Kentucky, and that Bunning would win, even though he trailed substantially early on.
Also quite early in the evening, West Virginia was called for President Bush (though no numbers were posted until later). So, with three states bordering on obviously critical Ohio appearing to be performing better in 2004 than in 2000, I had become quite comfortable about the outcome long before the media (mainstream or otherwise) began to hint of a GOP win.
I haven't seen anyone say it yet but of this new voter that broke heavily for bush how many were "unlikely voters" .
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