Presidential Election Maps 1940 - 2000

NationalAtlas.gov ^ | 7 Nov 2004 | NationalAtlas.gov

[farmfriend]

You should read the book The Fourth Turning. It explains it all.

[capitan_refugio]

"How do we get California back?"

Flip one out of every twenty voters back to the Republicans. Last two presidential elections have gone about 55% to 45% for the Democrats. But the Recall of the Democratic governor went the other way; Davis polled only about 45% of the vote to try to retain his office.

So where are the vote going to come from? Two likely places. (1) Reclaim "Silicon Valley" (south San Francisco Bay area). This used to be fertile territory of conservative to moderate Republicans, when the dot-com were booming. The place has fallen on hard times and competition from east Asia. (2) Build a stable base in the Americans of hispanic hertiage. This group, which is largely Catholic and morally conservative, could be a goldmine for the Republicans.

[MissouriConservative]

"2) Build a stable base in the Americans of hispanic hertiage. This group, which is largely Catholic and morally conservative, could be a goldmine for the Republicans."


This will be much easier than the Silicon Valley route considering that Bush picked up major percentages among hispanics nationwide. That is, if they are legal residents/citizens. I don't think the illegals will ever vote Republican.

[XBob]

1 - many thanks for the history lesson.

[ChefKeith]

hydrant marking for later

[capitan_refugio]

You are correct about the illegales. But the following generations will aspire to the same goals and morals that most of the other immigrant populations did in earlier times.

My point about the Silcon Valley area is that the econmy there is still quite depressed. The are lots of former six-figure software folks now selling shoes at Sears these days, and they are not happy about it. It is an area, geographically, that can swing back to the Republicans.

[MissouriConservative]

I like your opptomism. One day I picture a Republican map like the one in 1984.....landslides by the dozen.

[fivekid]

Great history lesson! Keep up the good work!!

[capitan_refugio]

I personally think California is too big for a winner-take-all EC vote. I would like to see it change to some sort of proportional distribution.

[capitan_refugio]

And that would piss off Hillary! too.

[ThePythonicCow]

The Fourth Turning

Interesting. I have read such books before, finding generational cycles in our history, and predicting where the cycles will turn next. I tend to agree with them.

The last couple of years I have been tracking Elliot Wave, which makes long term investment recommendations, based on a studying cycles, of various time scales (fractal).

Both The Fourth Turning by WILLIAM STRAUSS, NEIL HOWE, and Elliot Wave theory are predicting a major depression, covering most of the next ten or twenty years.

When I posted this Presidential Election Maps 1940 - 2000 thread, I left off the period before 1940, to keep the post to a reasonable size (in terms of mental effort to read), and to keep it within the lifetime of a decent number of readers.

However, I suspect that the period from 1900 to 1930 may more closely resemble the period from 1980 to 2110. A dynamic leader, reshaping this country, Teddy Roosevelt, was president from 1900 to 1908. He was a Republican. I imagine that the scope of his impact on America resembles Reagan's. After his terms, there was a tendency for Republicans to win the White House for some time, except in years when a strong Democrat (Wilson) opposed a weaker Republican candidate, with a third party candidate to split the vote.

This continued for some time, through the roaring twenties that perhaps corresponds to the boom of the nineties, until the Crash of 1929 and the beginning of the Great Depression in the early thirties. The Republicans were in office then, consecutive terms of Harding, Hoover and Coolidge.

The Republicans were blamed for the depression, and blown out of office, to be replaced by that champion of the people and the fireside chat, Franklin D. Roosevelt. The Democrats held the White House for the next 32 years, and vastly expanded the scope of the Federal Government during that time. We have later learned that some of FDR's closest advisors were Communists.

My fear is that we are going that way again.

George W. Bush held off the major economic downturn I was predicting, with his aggressive tax policies, and with Greenspan's aggressive interest rate reductions. Bush's focus this term includes five major initiatives that might continue to hold off the depression I continue to predict:

• tort reform,
• permanent tax cuts,
• strengthen energy resources,
• Income Tax overhaul, and
• Social Security reform.

I wish him well on these. Without success on most of these items, we risk setting ourselves up for Hillary in 2008. If the economy is in bad shape then, her odds of gaining the White House would be much improved.

I do not wish to learn of Hillary's plans for expanding the scope of the Federal Government.

Nor do I welcome her fire side chats into my living room.

But even if we avoid that Marxist, we will have a period of another ten years or so, in which we risk some other Leftist using a major economic depression to gain far too much power.

Even now we are seeing the dollar weaken again. It has been the key to holding up our economy and stock market, and financing our national debt, these last four years. Waves of currency devaluations, around the world, could usher in another Great Depression.

I have been out of Gold, since January 1 of this year, except for an exquisitely timed three weeks in late May. It might be time to get back in. When the dollar goes down, dollar denominated gold goes up, almost lock step.