Posted on 11/8/2004, 3:15:03 PM by cogitator
Researchers sound alarm bells over rapid Arctic warming
With temperatures in the Arctic rising at twice the rate of elsewhere, the ice cover there will, within the next 100 years completely disappear in summer, and the biodiversity will change dramatically, according to a scientific study published on Monday.
Even with only "moderate" future emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, average temperatures in the region could rise by between four and seven degrees Celsius (between seven and 13 degrees Fahrenheit) by year 2100, an Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) report published by an international team of 300 researchers on Monday.
"It is important because what is going on there is what will happen on the rest of the planet," said Paal Prestrud, the head of the Norwegian Center for International Climate and Environmental Research (CICERO) and vice president of ACIA.
Global warming could cause the Arctic ice cover to completely disappear in summer by the end of this century and threatens the species living in the ice field, like polar bears, the report produced for the Arctic Council warned.
Other species will meanwhile migrate north as temperatures rise.
"It's a paradox. The melting ice will increase the biodiversity but the Arctic species will be endangered," Prestrud said.
Indigenous Inuit hunters and Sami reindeer herders have begun complaining that they no longer are in a position to predict climatic changes and how much snow to expect in the short term.
According to one of the estimates used, the Arctic ice could melt away completely in warmer months as early as 2070.
Although the melting of the floating Arctic ice field will not cause sea levels to rise (ice takes more room than the water it contains), the melting of terrestrial glaciers is expected to push sea levels up by between 10 and 90 centimeters (between 3.9 and 35.4 inches), forcing many coastal populations to move.
The receding ice could also have some positive effects, researchers said, pointing out that over time it would enable the opening of a "northern passage" for maritime traffic between the Atlantic and the Pacific oceans, allowing for shorter voyages compared to taking the route through the Suez channel.
In addition, researchers pointed out, the ice free area would open access to new fish species and to untapped mineral resources.
The Arctic region is home to a quarter of the world's total oil and gas resources.
"This is not only negative. It also creates possibilities. This depends on the point of view: an oil company would think this is a good thing, but an Inuit (indigenous) to the ice field would certainly be of another opinion," Prestrud said.
The Arctic Council will meet in Reykjavik this week to discuss the report.
The foreign ministers of the eight countries that make up the Council -- Canada, Finland, Iceland, Japan, Norway, Russia, Sweden and the United States -- which alone account for about 30 percent of all human CO2 emissions -- are meanwhile scheduled to meet in the Icelandic capital on November 24 to discuss the political ramifications of the findings.
The report, which is the most detailed study ever done on the subject, does not make any specific recommendations but according to Prestrud it implicitly calls for a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions.
"This report should strengthen efforts towards global emission reduction," he told AFP.
After receiving a copy of the study, Norwegian Environmental Minister Knut Arild Hareide reiterated the Scandinavian country's commitment to the United Nation's Kyoto climate change treaty, which aims for an approximately five percent reduction of greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990 levels in the period 2008 to 2012.
"We need a Kyoto II, III, IV" to fulfil the UN climate change objectives of a 50 percent emission reduction over the next 30 years, he told AFP, adding that "the treaty alone is not enough. We need ambitious international treaties".
Russia last month decided to ratify the Kyoto Protocol, thus unblocking the treaty which needed the ratification of Russia or the United States to go into effect.
The United States has so far refused to ratify the Kyoto Protocol.
Oh no the coastal Blue states are going to drown... Ahhhh!
Coming soon Venice West, formerly known as New York City.
B.S.P.H.D. BOHICA! Alert
the sky is falling ~!!!
*rolls eyes*
The article, the hyperbole and the hysteria were inevitable after the results of the election. Back to square one for the idiots.
Voodoo science trumps the real thing...Intellectual elitism at work here...Can't get the Joe Sixpacks to leave their pickups at home and take public transit so let's scare people into submission!! Socialism masqueraded as environmentalism pure and simple. The economics of redistribution is at the heart of the environmental movement. Nothing to see here, move along...
So will we still have polar bears? Or will they migrate next to the suburbia and become a nuisance?
and they "could" fall. Let's see ... frozen or unfrozen ... frozen or unfrozen. Tough decision but unless we're talking ice cream I'm choosing warm.
Let's see the election is over, they lost, so what else
is there to talk about. Let me guess it's Bush's fault
the ice is melting.
"This report should strengthen efforts towards global emission reduction"
Only if man-made global emissions could be shown to have changed the climate. Which I doubt, seeing as volcano emissions are WAY ahead of anything mankind can do.
I note the words "could rise".
I also note that it is a 4 to 7 degree Celsius rise. I don't think 4 degrees really matters a whole lot when people are putting up with temps that range from minus 35 to 40 degrees.
Follow the money.
We rented "Day After Tomorrow" on Saturday and it was sooo awful. What a load of junk. The special effects were cool, but they were so obvious in their attempts to demonize the Bush Administration, especially VP Cheney. A few years ago I read "The Coming Global Superstorm" after receiving a free copy from the publicist. I beleive the movie had to have been based on this book, which to me was a good work of fiction, and nothing more.
Gee, perhaps they should pray for the ice age to come back. As the snow buildup on the poles is around the magnetic north not true north it is pretty clear that the ice age was caused by a captured ice comet and the earths very gradual warm up is the ice melting.
Thinking themselves wise, they become as fools and worship creation rather than the Creator.
Paging Chicken Little! Paging Chicken Little!
And monkeys could fly out of my butt.
Yes, the timing of this report after the election is suspicious -- that's why the contents of the report were leaked to the NY Times, so that they could get the results into print before the election. It didn't do a thing to affect the results of the election, though.
Not only that, but global warming has also been detected on Mars, Pluto and Triton where human beings don't even exist. It also turns out that the Sun is getting brighter.
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