Posted on 11/08/2004 7:54:20 AM PST by crushelits
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(Democratic Non-Hillary Edition) |
However, there is also a school of thought that has some merit, that the lesson of 2004 is don't run a northeastern liberal. And nothing says "northeastern liberal" like Hillary.
So given the never ending campaign cycle, it's not too late to start thinking about the likely Democratic candidates for 2008. Being the geniuses we are we knew the President would win, and on October 18, 2004, looked at the potential GOP 2008 field. In the article below we give you some analysis on the field to try and wrest the White House after what will surely be a highly successful second term for our beloved President.
John Edwards (Unemployed Lawyer-NC). When John "Crushed" Kerry named him as his running mate it was almost a win-win situation for John Jr.. If they beat Bush, then obviously Edwards would be the heir apparent and major power broker in the Democratic party. Best of all for him a win would have put Hillary out of the picture in 2008. Even if the ticket lost, as it did, a showing by Edwards as a VP candidate similar to his performance running on his own in the primaries would give him the leg up for 2008.
But a funny thing happened on the way to the (thank God) Kerry defeat. John Edwards' was more invisible than Al Franken's Arbitron ratings. He brought absolutely nothing to the table, and we'd be hard pressed to find on way in which he helped John Kerry. The thought was the Breck Girl would help in the South. That turned out really well didn't it. Add to that the Vice Presidential Debate in which Dick Cheney exposed this ultra-lightweight for the empty suit that he is and the luster is off this one-time boy wonder who'd be best advised to picking the pockets of hard working doctors.
Edwards classless concession speech told us he was going for the big prize in 2008. Of course there will be some in the party that will back him because of his geographic location and loquaciousness. But we wonder if the stench of being the lead fly on the Kerry dog is going to cause people to open up their wallet for him, especially given that Hillary is likely to be keeping a list of whose been naughty and nice with their Benjamins.
Gov. Ed Rendell (PA) If the Democrats are smart they'll take a look at "Fast Eddie". Yes, he's a northeastern Democrat whose probably about as left wing as "Crushed" Kerry. But the big thing is he doesn't come off that way.
If you want someone who's going to connect with the "regular guy", then Eddie's your guy. Hell, for the last 5 years he's been a regular on the Eagles Post-Game cable show, and it's easy to picture him sitting in a bar w/ you. And a guy who tried to hit Jimmy Johnson with a snowball from the 500 level of the old Veterans Stadium because someone bet him $20 he wouldn't might even get my vote.
On policy he was of course, "America's Mayor" because he made Philadelphia a place where something besides roaches and rats wanted to live. In fairness, he was a damn fine Mayor whose management helped the city a great deal. He was not afraid to stand up to the labor unions which are basically the mafiosos of local politics. Finally, he's got a pragmatic streak in him that allows him to cut through some partisan BS and get things done.
His main problem is that when he became Governor he actually had to deal with Republicans. His first term has been average at best, with his main accomplishment being getting a slot machines bill through the GOP controlled legislature, with the hope being that property taxes will be reduced. Other than that there's not much else.
Despite that he's got a high approval rating, mainly because he really is a likeable guy. But his recent hesitancy to give extra time for military ballots could hurt him later on. Also, despite being married to a federal judge, he has been dogged by whispers that he's rather fond of the ladies, or at the very least is crass as hell (ask then Philadelphia Magazine writer Lisa DePaulo), which puts him at the top of the Democratic heap. But sad as it is to say, what may hurt him nationwide is the fact that he's Jewish.
Gov. Bill Richardson (NM) In a perfect world this guy wouldn't even be seriously considered for the job. His status as the lead negotiator of the failed Clinton North Korea policy should automatically disqualify him from consideration. The man for some reason thought we could trust the most brutal Communist dictator on the planet at his word. Further, as Secretary of Energy he presided over the Los Alamos nuclear technology scandal.
Yet, there is no question he will receive serious consideration in 2008 because of he's Hispanic and from the Southwest. Automatically you would think he could "turn" New Mexico back to blue, as well as make the Democrats competitive in states like Colorado, Arizona and Florida that have large Hispanic populations. Further, with the President receiving 45% of the Hispanic vote, expect to hear Richardson's name as the only one who can bring them over to the "D" column.
Also in his favor is that as Governor he signed a concealed carry law, which could show he's not an out of touch elite. He was also smart enough politically to take himself out of the running for Kerry VP mighty early, showing that he knew a train wreck when he saw one. However, he is a big friend to the Clinton's and could easily be persuaded by Bill not to run, but with a promise of being Hillary's VP. Let's say this about Richardson, the Dems could do worse
Sen. Evan Bayh (IN) - If the Democrats come to their senses, they'll focus in on Bayh early. The lesson of 2004 was that the Democratic party has to get away from nominating lefties who are 1. Strong on defense, and 2. Play in middle America.
Bayh would seem to fit the bill. He got over 60% of the vote in this deeply "red" state and is viewed by friend and foe alike as a fairly reasonable person who does not toe the party line. Hell, he'd be a better Republican than some in the party (i.e. Specter, Chafee, etc.). Further, Indianans are a fairly smart and common sense bunch, and his approval ratings are sky high, so he must be doing something right.
On defense issues, Bayh has shown himself to be one of a dying breed- the "Scoop Jackson" Democrat. He has been a advocate of the "preemption doctrine" of President Bush, and has for years been warning of the danger of Kim Jong Il shipping weapons to terrorists. In short, he "gets it", meaning the lessons of 9/11.
Bayh's biggest problem could be the same one faced by Joe Lieberman. That is, he's not left wing enough for the base Democrats, and couldn't get either the money or support to get out of the primaries. Word is that when being considered by Kerry for VP, the pro-abortionists at NARAL let it be known that he was unacceptable because of his vote for the partial birth abortion ban. If you see Bayh on the Democratic ticket in 2008, you'll see that the "civil war" was won by the people with some modicum of decency and common sense. But if that's true, the leftys will likely stay home or form their own party with Michael Moore as the head.
Rep. Harold Ford, Jr.(TN) Here's your longshot. In our estimation Ford would be a good choice for the Democrats to run either as a President, but more likely as a VP candidate. His strengths are numerous.
First, he is from Tennessee. Second, he is black. Third, he is not the raving lunatic liberal one usually sees among the Democratic Black Caucus. Is he a lefty? Yup. But no more than most, and more importantly, he doesn't sound like a whack job.
And let's be realistic here, if you're going to get a majority of white people to vote for a black Democrat, that black Democrat can't sound like Jesse Jackson or Al Sharpton, both of whom have only one stock in trade - hate.
Ford has shown some remarkable political instinct. The first was putting his name out there in a short-lived challenge to Nancy Pelosi for Minority Leader in the House. It was a brilliant move because it immediately put him in contrast with Pelosi, the quintessential "San Francisco liberal". Thus, when he goes on the national stage, he can sell himself as someone who knows the party will never succeed with the far left running it. That allows him to reach out to swing voters, all the while knowing that blacks and the rest of the Democratic base will still turn out for him. Also, don't discount the "guilty white person" vote here, who will vote for Ford because he's black even if they don't agree with him on every issue, just to show how "progressive" they are.
Given his age and experience however, Ford can afford to wait for future years. Another problem is that he likely won't be able to run statewide for Governor, which he may have to do to breakout of being "just a Congressman."
Al Gore Don't laugh. Just this past week Richard Cohen of the Washington Post was begging for him to return. But it's a case of too little, too late, too insane. His window was open in 2004 and he didn't take it, and his whining about 2000 will not resonate after this recent election. Add that to the fact that he has quite literally gone off the deep end and into the realm of the moveon.org's of the world make him unelectable anywhere but in Berkeley, Madison, WI, and Massachusetts. We were thinking about naming Howard Dean, but his implosion in the primaries shows he can never be a candidate for national office again. But if he heads the DNC, as is rumored he wants to do, don't be surprised if he turns to the former VP, current unhinged lunatic, to run as a left wing candidate from "the Democratic wing of the Democratic party", especially after Gore gave Dean a huge endorsement, disastrous as it turned out to be. Please do, it would make such great copy.
Of course it's very early and there will be many twists and turns along the way including unforeseen events that could change the entire political landscape that would make all of these people an afterthought.. But we here at anklebitingpundits com pride ourselves on being ahead of the curve, and we want you to be as well.
Excellent summary. My money is still on Ford for President, Rendell for Vice-President.
I haven't a clue whom the Republicans will run, but would take McLame/Giuliani as an early read.
I wish Bush/Cheney could run again in '08.
Lot of buzz over Virginia governor Mark Warner as well, in blogs and MSM. I also have heard Ken Salazar's name in blogs.
It will be Hillary.
The MSM is now going out of their way to call her a "centrist."
They will also still control the DNC.
Sorry, can't help it.
Doesn't matter - you can't just "assume" Hillary away.
The 800 900-pound gorilla in the living room won't go away, just because you want to look at the chimpanzees.
I'll guess Rendell-Richardson.
I think the Dems will be dumb enough to run Hillary, but this is some interesting reading on alternatives
I wish it could be Watts-Guiliani in '08.
If the Dems nominate someone from outside the South for president, they could do worse than Sen. Blanche Lincoln as a running mate. She may be the last of the real Southern Democrats.
According to the Leftists, Bush was never elected for his first term...so technically (according to them), this is his first term and he should be eligible to run in 2008.
Unless, of course, the Left wants to admit they're wrong about the outcome of the 2000 election. That'll do just fine, too.
Sounds like the Dems nominating Evan Bayh would go a long way towards reducing my stress level in 2008.
Can you imagine an Evan Bayh vs. Guliani match up? The red and blue states might just reverse as both bases would be peeved.
It's going to be Hillary Clinton or Edwards... my money is on Edwards.
Sad to say, it is very possible that we will have a democrat win the White House in 2008.
It all depends on the Republicans. We know what the democrats did in New Jersey with Lautenberg (spelling). If Cheney does step down ONLY due to health, we could have an early advantage. I just don't see a real Republican stand out candidate. The obvious one, Rudy, would have to change parties. He will never get enough of the conservative vote.
Here's hoping we win again.
I *really* don't think this is a problem. Think of all the states that have Jewish senators TODAY. It's practically a requirement in the upper midwest!
Not if we stay on message and on target. The worst thing we could do in 2008 is buy into the ridiculous notion that we have to go Liberal/RINO/Democrat-Lite in order to compete with the Democrats. We won this year because we stayed true to the base. If we sell out the base in 2008, we can kiss the White House and several congressional seats goodbye for sure.
If Cheney does step down ONLY due to health, we could have an early advantage.
Nothing doing. If Cheney steps down for whatever reason, the Democrats will distort it to their advantage. Remember: truth doesn't matter to the Left, only perception does. And if they can manufacture the appearance of impropriety, they'll spout it as Gospel Truth until 2012. Nope...Cheney stays until January 20th, 2009.
I just don't see a real Republican stand out candidate. The obvious one, Rudy, would have to change parties. He will never get enough of the conservative vote.
There's plenty of time to cultivate a proper conservative candidate. Rome wasn't built in a day and we've got until 2006 to shake things out. Just stay true to the base, stay on message, keep the pressure on the party big-wigs and we should do all right.
Now is the time for hope! We have many good years ahead of us!
There's Phil Bredesen in Tennessee. Great Red State Democratic Governor - totally "gets it." Better than RINO Sundquist. High popularity ratings. But his fiscal conservatism makes him anathema to the Michael Moore Left that runs the Democratic Party.
Whenever the media refers to a Democrat over and over again as a "centrist," that means that politician is a flaming liberal. What is Hillary a centrist about? And this bunk about her being a "hawk" on military matters makes me puke. Does anyone think Keg Legs Clinton has any regard for our military? She's a 60s radical.
Of course, the media will NEVER replay her record as a leftist Watergate lawyer, lawyer to the Black Panthers or co-conspirator with her psychotic husband. Her even being considered for President makes me vomit. Imagine the trash visiting the White House on a consistent basis?
Bayh-Bredesen could do it. An all-Red State ticket. Unfortunately, the base of the Democratic Party has no interest in fighting for ground on enemy turf. One gets the feeling the Democrats would rather see their party dry out and blow away so they can feel ideologically pure. That's exactly how the Left would like it. They want as few DINOs as possible with the final answer being preferably "none."
This means GWB will have a choice to make: Will he endorse, or won't he? My guess is that he will -- it fits the Bush/Rove pattern of picking people in GOP primaries and helping them towards the nomination (although they don't always succeed -- witness the CA governor's nomination in 2002). It also makes sense from the legacy perspective; the best way to ensure your legacy, if you are a president about to be term-limitted out, is to push the party towards nominating someone who can win, and who can be depended upon to continue in roughly the same direction.
I don't know who they will settle on -- they probably don't know yet, either (although they probably have favorites). Watch the Cabinet changes over the next few weeks, and watch who gets special attention from the White House in the 2006 elections -- especially candidates for governor. That will give you some clue as to which people are being groomed as potential successors.
And please note: I am not saying that the GOP must accept whoever GWB annoints. I know that some of his picks have not been popular on FR. But his opinion will matter to a lot of people, and if he decides to turn over his rolodex to one of the contestants, that is going to make a huge difference.
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