Sorry, only millionaires can retire

yahoo ^ | 11-10-04 | Paul B. Farrell

[LouAvul]

Hey boomers, if you're close to retirement run to Wal-Mart now and put in your application. And if you still have time before retirement, be forewarned. Keep that application handy.

Why? Because you have no choice but to work right up to the day the kids put you in long-term care or a mausoleum.

Seriously: Professional financial planners tell us we need a million bucks to retire today, multimillions in the near future. Unfortunately, the average American has a paltry net worth of $15,000 exclusive of home equity.

And things are going from bad to worse. A few years ago I ran across a study by the American Savings Council and the Employee Benefit Research Institute. Was anybody saving for retirement? Not many: Only 35 percent were 'Planners,' folks saving enough to retire comfortably.

The rest? Bad news: 13 percent were 'Deniers,' saving nothing; 15 percent were 'Impulsives,' consumers who save if there's anything left over after they buy that hot new toy; 20 percent were 'Strugglers,' who don't trust the market so they won't save much; and 18 percent were in the 'Cautious' category who know they're grossly unprepared.

Get it? Two out of three Americans had some kind of lame excuse for not planning their retirement: "I'm cautious, I'm struggling, I'm too impulsive, I'm in denial and can't save." Excuses, excuses, excuses. No wonder America's savings rate dropped from eight percent just 20 years ago to one percent today.

.......snip..........

And do not count on, privatization of Social Security to help you. That's another joke. If you're lucky playing the market with your dinky 2.4 percent Social Security account, you might make an extra couple hundred bucks a month. But don't count on it. Market risks may make things worse than the current system of guaranteed payments.

[LouAvul]

On down the article:

Now what? What's the answer?

First: America must cut Social Security benefits and raise taxes by 40 percent to 50 percent. The choices are that limited. Unfortunately, we're in denial, and we won't listen until things get really bad a few years from now, after privatization is enacted and everybody realizes it was like putting a Band-aid on a massive cancer.

Second: Is there a brilliant microeconomic solution, a personal finance recommendations that'll help you move out of the "Survivor" group and into the "Joe Millionaire" group. Okay, here's the big secret: You ... are ... not ... saving ... enough!

Nothing saved equals nothing invested equals nothing for retirement. A little saved equals a little earned equals a little for retirement. A lot saved equals a lot earned equals a lot for retirement. How much simpler can it get?

[k2blader]

Good points. But I imagine many older folks eager to retire are looking at their bank accounts and getting nervous. They haven't saved enough but don't want to keep working. For them, socialism is the answer.

[xrp]

How about if we just stop bailing out the people who failed to plan in life and let them die? It isn't my fault I am sacking away tons of cash (at the age of 31, only) and others, younger and older than me, have not, are not and will not save for retirement.

[Codeflier]

How will people save more when their taxes are raised 40 - 50%?

[JanetteS]

America must cut Social Security benefits and raise taxes by 40 percent to 50 percent.

Gee...I wonder who he voted for?

[Graybeard58]

Save and invest was preached to me from the time I first started working. It was good advice then and it still is.

I retired when I was 54.

I love it and only wish I could have retired sooner.

[Don Corleone]

Nothing saved equals nothing invested equals nothing for retirement. A little saved equals a little earned equals a little for retirement. A lot saved equals a lot earned equals a lot for retirement. How much simpler can it get?

"Pay yourself first!" Its a good plan and it works. The magic of compound interest is astounding.

[joesnuffy]

the illegal aliens new republicans will take care of us....trust them...

[staytrue]

This is true only while the conservative republicans are in power. If the dems come back, they will tax or inflate money to take your savings to "make the playing field level"

[Prime Choice]

I love how people can pull numbers like this out of their butts. A year ago I was informed by my financial planner that I'd need to save $1 MILLION DOLLARS to put two kids through college.

Sorry...ain't sending the kids to Harvard unless they get scholarships! The University of Iowa worked for me, and I put myself through college.

Besides, I have no intention of retiring. First off, I enjoy my work too much and my field is not one in which age is any handicap. Secondly, I've already experienced what it's like to not work when I was hospitalized. It sucked. No thanks.

[1L]

If they do away with withholding, we will eliminate the IRS on the April 16th following the year withholding ended. Government spending would revert back to where it should be and real wealth could start being created in this country.

[CaptainAwesome2]

what if all those years they were working and paying over 12% of their salary into social security they actually got to keep that money in an account for retirement. this whole program is such a criminal scam and id say no punsihment is too severe for its proponents.

[Rummyfan]

Unfortunately, the average American has a paltry net worth of $15,000 exclusive of home equity.

Incredible! That means a lot of people don't have any net worth at all exclusive of equity.

[Graybeard58]

I enjoy my work too much and my field is not one in which age is any handicap.

Great! Do what's right for you.

Some friends and relatives wondered why I retired at 54.

Because I could and it was what was right for me.

[SteveMcKing]

To give this an angle we can appreciate, many couples (and singles) spend their life with a conservative work ethic and acquire a small fortune. That money is then transferred to their socialist children who spend it on cars, semesters abroad in europe, and donations to left-wing groups... all culminating in the earning of a useless degree, whereupon they return home and ask for more money for graduate school. (They usually get it.)

10 years after that, and they still have not saved a penny that wasn't a gift from relatives, deceased or living.

Need an exapmle? Ter-eeee-za Heinze and her modest, beautiful step-children. Of course she didn't earn it, her husband did...

[sitetest]

In discounting the partial privatization of Social Security, this guy proves he's an idiot.

Take someone with a modest starting salary right out of school, give him a bit more than cost of living each year, on average, put 2.4% of his income away at a modest 8% annual return (full investment in the market would yield 10% over several decades), and he'll have hundreds of thousands of dollars by age 67 (retirement age for those of us born 1960 and later).

Is that enough all by itself? No, probably not. Is it a really, really good start? A really important component to an overall retirment plan? You bet. Will it beat out Social Security Classic? Yup.

[DM1]

i started saving since i was like 8
everytime i made some money some went into the bank
now some goes into retirement funds, bonds and a savings account. i work three jobs now so that i dont have to later
sorry individual responsibility is still the cure to this disease

[Citizen Tom Paine]

If you are in reasonably good health and you own your own home, you can live comfortably on $1200 per month.

Note however that the taxes in your house may go up enough in 10 to 20 years that you can no longer afford to live in it.

[leadpencil1]

I don't know about everyone else, but I spend every penny I make and then some. I'm counting on winning the lottery to fund my retirement. Duh.

[cherry]

"I retired when I was 54."

let me guess.....government pension of some sort with glorious medical benefits....

[ErnBatavia]

I dunno...maybe some lessons in 'self responsiblity' would be in order, instead.

I'm not going into any detail on this forum, but I've proven that one can do just fine on a fifth of one's former income...IF (and that's the big 'if') one starts thinking about retirement 25 years before that day comes.

Get your house paid for! Don't buy that cool-looking boat just because the neighbor has one! Plan ahead!

Wifey and I got married in 1979, and from day one we both lived our lives under the assumption that "Social Security will not be there for us, and we will NOT count on it".

[ptlurking]

For you guys and gals in your early 20's...start saving today!!!

If your company offers a 401k plan...take advantage of it!

$349 a month invested for 40 years @ 6.9% return gets you
to $1 Million dollars.

[Poohbah]

Professional financial planners tell us we need a million bucks to retire today, multimillions in the near future.

Bulls**t.

The average rate of return on growth mutual fund investments is 12%. Deduct 4% for inflation. That means you get 8% of your principal for income without decreasing your capital.

8% of $500,000 is $40,000. If you can't live on that, you have a problem.

Financial planners will tell you "invest into the millions" because that gives them a bigger portfolio to play with.

[billhilly]

"It isn't my fault I am sacking away tons of cash (at the age of 31, only).."

How much does your ton weigh?

[ptlurking]

Correction...$392 a month invested for 40 years @ 6.9% return gets you to $1 Million dollars.

Sorry!

[KC_for_Freedom]

Good points. But I imagine many older folks eager to retire are looking at their bank accounts and getting nervous. They haven't saved enough but don't want to keep working. For them, socialism is the answer.

Of course, having someone else pay is always a nice solution, but the rest of the country may no approve of the socialism. So most of my friends who have not saved enough for retirement plan on working until they drop. (Not that theres anything wrong with that.)

[Siamese Princess]

How will people save more when their taxes are raised 40 - 50%?

That's one of the problems in a nutshell. The more the government "does" for you, the less able and willing you are to do for yourself. The more taxes you pay (allegedly on your behalf) the more you are dependent on the government to return the money to you in the form of benefits and entitlements.

Social Security originally was not a pension program, only a little something to prevent complete destitution. It only became a pension program beginning in the 1970s. So, in the 1960s, SS didn't pay much but the tax was light so you could easily save up. Now, the tax is much heavier and every dime the government takes from you is one less dime you can sock away or invest on your own. This forces greater dependency on the government -- isn't socialism grand?

[Graybeard58]

let me guess.....government pension of some sort with glorious medical benefits....

Wrong.

[CurlyDave]

First: America must cut Social Security benefits and raise taxes by 40 percent to 50 percent.

Second: Is there a brilliant microeconomic solution: ... You ... are ... not ... saving ... enough!

And just how does the first piece of advice help with the second?

Mr. Farrell must be a particular kind of moron.

[Prime Choice]

Great! Do what's right for you.

Thanks! And more power to you, FRiend. Enjoy your retirement!

[Chuckster]

OK so let me get this straight: I paid about $30K in taxes last year and you say I need to pay another $12K to $15K, right? Well, call me a dunce but I just don't see how the government confiscating $45,000 a year from me is going to help me save for my retirement.

I'll be eligible for SS benefits in five years, but I won't need it; unless of course the government decides to nick my income another thousand bucks a month as you say they must.

Explain to me again how this is going to help. Oh, I see. By confiscating my income so I cannot retire as planned, some other shlub who didn't bother to think beyond the next six pack will benefit. Now that's conservative thinking!

Everyone would be well advised to just pretend that the SS program does not exist and make other plans.

[xrp]

It doesn't weigh as much as a ton of feathers.

[Reeses]

i started saving since i was like 8

I started smoking when I was 8, so I wouldn't have to worry about it! :-)

[Iam1ru1-2]

I think the minimum wage should be $25 an hour, and all medical benefits should be paid by all employers, and a retirement fund should be mandatory for all business for their employees which a mandatory 15% should be taken out of each paycheck BEFORE TAXES, and an IRA available to all employees through their employment of which the first 5% paid by the employee would be matched by their employer, and new mothers should get 1 year paid leave, after which the father should get 1 year paid leave, and that at retirement, Gov't should provide free medical care, including all medication. Transportation should be provided by the government, if anybody at retirement age is unable to drive. Gas coupons should be provided for all retired people who have vehicles when they reach retirement age. Of course, there should be one catch. Anybody making more than $500,000 would not be eligible for any of this. All employers payment into insurance, wages, paid leave, retirement plans, IRA contributions into employee plans should be deducted from their taxable wages. Also all business audit costs should be deducted from their taxable wages. (/sarcasm>

[Henchman]

1. Social Security is NOT a retirement fund and never was.
2. People make life choices, some are good and some are bad. People should expect to reap the rewards of those decisions and not expect other to pay for them if their decisions were wrong.
3.The US was founded as and is a Capitalist System. If you don't like it, move. Canukistan is a little to the North. A budding People's Republic, I hear.
4. In a capitalist society there will always be some rich and some poor, with a large middle class. In a Socialist Society, there is a huge number of poor and the rich stole theirs from the poor.
5. You had an opportunity to get an education, skill, move if need be for a better job, and to vote. If you didn't take advantage of what the US has to offer, don't ask me to pay for it.
6. You come into this world with $-0- and leave the same way. Every thing in between is a gamble, so you might as well take a chance. If you didn't take a chance, don't blame others.
7. If your chance didn't pan out, take another chance. Remember, if at first you don't succeed, try, try, try again.
8. It's never too late.
9. Take responsibility for yourself.
10.I love retirement and I am not going to pay for yours.

[jimthewiz]

You're right. It is impossible to find a 30-40 period where the market did not far outperform the pitiful 2% return of ss.

[sitetest]

Dear Poohbah,

Well, not quite.

The long-term return on equities is about 10%. But that includes a lot of short-term volatility.

By the time someone retires, he's going to want to have a portfolio invested that will produce somewhat less volatility. Getting a total return of 8% is maybe doable.

So, the retiree takes about 4% income, and whatever's left over protects against inflation.

Which means if you want $40K per year, you need about a million bucks.

And someone who is 25 now won't be eligible for full Social Security benefits for 42 years. In that time, even modest inflation could triple or quadruple the cost of living.

Meaning, that 25 year old should really try to have a few million on which to retire.


sitetest

[cherry]

well, how then?

[longtermmemmory]

gee, friday is for soylent green.

what next duty to die centers?

(/s)

[Poohbah]

The long-term return on equities is about 10%. But that includes a lot of short-term volatility.

Simple: invest in the long-term. You'll still win out, as long as you're disciplined about your spending.

But going to a bond fund because of volatility concerns is pretty damn stupid.

And someone who is 25 now won't be eligible for full Social Security benefits for 42 years. In that time, even modest inflation could triple or quadruple the cost of living.

I kept the amounts in constant dollars.

Yeah, you wind up with a few million then-year dollars, but you're investing in now-year dollars to begin with, which means you have $500K constant-year dollars.

[SoDak]

I'll work at some job or other until I die. My father worked until the very month of his death when he was too sick. The saddest thing to me is hearing that my rather elderly aunt and uncle are refinancing their home to try to pay down credit cards. I've become convinced that the only way to save enough to retire well is to live totally debt-free. I tossed all my credit cards and don't miss them.

[KingNo155]

I agree .

[xrp]

See post 35, thx.

[wagglebee]

Megabump!
Couldn't agree more!

[Graybeard58]

well, how then?

I invested for more than 30 years and rode the 90s boom in tech stocks and switched to safer and more conservative stocks when I retired in Dec. 1999.

I got out just in time but it was no stroke of genius on my part. Just luck that I retired and backed off the tech boom just before the NASDQ went down hill.

I started working in the cotton fields when I was 10 years old and knew even then that I am basically a lazy person. So I worked and saved and invested so I could pursue my real passion someday.....Being lazy.

[kaboom]

I started smoking when I was 8, so I wouldn't have to worry about it! :-)

Too Funny!!!

[Denver Ditdat]

I think the minimum wage should be $25 an hour, and all medical benefits should be paid by all employers... <snippety-snip>

You may want to check your keyboard - I suspect it could file a paternity suit against the DNC fax line. ;-)

[sitetest]

Dear Poohbah,

Once you retire, and need to draw a regular income from your investments, if you keep everything in equities, a short-term decline in the market of, say, 30%, can really put you upside-down.

If you had $500K, and were down to $350K, either you'd need to increase your draw percentage to about 11.5% to keep taking your $40K, or you'd need to dial back to about $28K per year until you recovered. 11.5% is a bit more than the actual average long-term return on equities.

Now, imagine this:

Start Year 1: $500K. Total return: 10%, $50K. Income taken: 8%, $40K. End Year 1: $510K. Great!

Start Year 2: $510K. Total return: -20%, -$102K. Income taken, 8% of start, $40K. End Year 2: $368K. Not so great.

Start Year 3: $368K. Total return: -10%, -$37K. Income taken, 8% of $368K, $30K. End Year 3: $301K. Yikes!

Start Year 4: $301K. Total return: 40%, 120K. Income taken, 8% of $301K, $24K. End Year 4: $397K. Not as bad.

Start Year 5: $397K. Total return: 20%, 80K. Income taken, 8% of $397K, $32K. End of Year 5: $455K.

The average annual return, here, is 10%. But because we're taking such a high percentage of the AVERAGE return, we get really killed in the bad years, and don't quite make it back up in the recovery years. If we'd gotten a straight 10% per year, we'd have about $550K after five years, and incomes starting at $40K and finishing at about $43K.

But because of volatility, and because we were taking too high a percentage of the original amount, we wind up with less money than when we started, and suffer a lot of income volatility.

Bear markets happen. Declines of 30% in the market aren't terribly unusual. It often takes a couple or more years to get it all back.

That's why folks change their investment mix when they start drawing an income.

Finally, I didn't suggest that folks "go to a bond fund."

If you have $500K or $1 million, and you have A fund, one single fund or equity, of any sort, you aren't properly invested. But if you're about to retire, shifting a significant portion of your assets to bonds, preferred stock, etc., is appropriate.

sitetest

[Mike-o-Matic]

  Incredible! That means a lot of people don't have any net worth at all exclusive of equity.

It's worse than that. A LOT of people have a NEGATIVE net worth!

[GOP_1900AD]

I have no sympathy. We live with substantial sacrifices today, in order to save for retirement. Our lifestyle is not as good as many who have incomes 1/5th of ours. I plan to do everything I can to put an end to Social Security and if that sounds harsh, well too bad. I know that we are capable of doing what it takes to plan for retirement and those who don't get it need to pay for their mistakes.