Frist explained the situation at the end of last summer but no one was paying attention.
He polled the republicans about going nuclear. Up to 5 RINOs responded that they would not support.
My guess on the names of the 5: Chaffee, Snowe, Specter, McCain....???
If it is the same 5 and there are no new defections, then the rules changes would win a 50-50 tie with VP Cheney breaking the tie.
If it is the same 5 and there are no new defections, then the rules changes would win a 50-50 tie with VP Cheney breaking the tie.
Unless now we see what Frist is dangling in front of Specter.
Frist doesn't have the votes in the current caucus to change the rules or break the filibuster. It doesn't matter who is Majority Leader; you need the votes.
In the next Congress, as you say, we'll have more votes. I am by no means confident that there are enough votes to go nucular and modify or eliminate the filibuster over judges or Justices. Senators know that if the filibuster ends, they'll each lose leverage.
Of course, it's easier for many on this thread to just place all the blame on Frist. These folks just don't understand the Senate.
How many Dems would join on going nuc....my guess is only one or two max since it is much more than just voting to end a fillibuster.
Last summer he was 5 votes shy of the 50 needed. BUT...
Today (yes, in this session) he'd have at least 2-3 more: Specter would definitely vote for it just to try to ensure his chairmanship, and he would be willing to cash some chips among Chaffee, Snowe, etc to get their votes. So it is possible to get this changed on Tuesday 11/16, as a point of order, when the senate is in executive session to consider the nomination of Francis Harvey to Secretary of the Army.
That can happen this session, and next session's Senate - with 55 Repubs - would never vote to reverse this rule.
Frist & Lott have both said they could do this right after the November election. Let's hold them to it... contact the senators