Posted on 11/16/2004 8:38:26 AM PST by Bluegrass Conservative
As we wind down the 2004 season, eyes are now turning towards 2006 and candidate recruitment is starting to take place. The following is a list of Senate seats up in 2006:
AZ: John Kyl (R) Shouldn't be opposed, or at worst will draw token opposition.
CT: Joe Lieberman (D) I don't foresee any serious opposition here. However, there is rumor about Lieberman taking a position in the administration. If that happens, Republicans will be running an appointed incumbent for the seat. Congressman Chris Shays perhaps?
DE: Tom Carper (D) Short of Congressman Mike Castle (R) running against him, Carper is safe.
FL: Bill Nelson (D) This should be a top target for the Republicans. In a perfect world, Governor Jeb Bush runs. However, I doubt he does. Better chance of either Congressman Mark Foley or Congresswoman Katherine Harris.
HI: Dan Akaka (D) I hope the Hawai'i Republicans put up somone legit against Akaka, just to show they are becoming a serious party in the state. However, Akaka beats anyone I believe. Goal here is to hold the margin to a minimum.
IN: Dick Lugar (R) Assuming Lugar runs again, he'll have no problems. If Lugar retires or is appointed Secretary of Agriculture (hearing rumors to that effect), my bet is that former Indianapolis Mayor Steve Goldsmith (R) gets the nod. There will be a Democrat contender, but not sure who.
ME: Olympia Snowe (R) This will be a top target for the Democrats. However, I think Snowe will be able to hold whomever their candidate is off.
MD: Paul Sarbanes (D) Short of talking Lt. Governor Michael Steele (R) into running, Sarbanes should be safe.
MA: Ted Kennedy (D) Oh, wouldn't it be fun to knock him off??!!! Ain't going to happen.
MI: Debbie Stabenow (D) This should be a top target for Republicans as well. I've heard rumors of both Spence Abraham and Ted Nugent considering a run. Both would lose. Surely they can find a decent candidate for this seat.
MN: Mark Dayton (D) This will definitely be a top target for the Republicans. My prediction? Practice saying Senator Mark Kennedy (R).
MS: Trent Lott (R) If Lott runs again, he's safe. If he retires, the Republican candidate is safe too. Practice with me . . . Senator Chip Pickering.
MO: Jim Talent (R) Rumors have it that Claire McCaskill (D) ran this year against Kit Bond just to get her name recognition up to run against Talent. Will be a bit closer than this year's MO Senate race, but Talent wins in the end.
MT: Conrad Burns (R) Extremely safe, despite a re-energized Montana Democrat Party
NE: Ben Nelson (D) Term-limited Republican Governor Mike Johans can't run for re-election. Watch the popular Governor become an even more popular Senator in 2006 for a Republican pickup here.
NV: John Ensign (R) Despite it being a competitive state, Ensign grows stronger day by day. He will have token opposition at most.
NJ: John Corzine (D) Good news, John Corzine isn't going to be running for re-election. Bad news, he is going to be a sitting Governor come 2005 who appointed his own successor. Watch Democrat Congressman Rob Andrews take on one of the following Republicans: Bret Schundler, Doug Forrester, Bob Franks, Tom Kean, Jr., Christine Todd Whitman or Steve Forbes. If the Republicans could come together and pick a candidate, this could be a pick-up.
NM: Jeff Bingaman (D) I expect a strong challenge to Bingaman from the Republicans. Congresswoman Heather Wilson would be a good pick or in the "whatever happened to him" category, where is former Governor Gary Johnson? He was young and pretty popular I think.
NY: Hillary Clinton (D) Hmmm. Think this one will get any media attention? If Rudy runs, he wins. If Pataki is the candidate he possibly wins. Anybody else loses.
ND: Kent Conrad (D) Okay, message to North Dakota voters . . . you're a red state! Start acting like it! Isn't there some Republican out there that can beat Conrad besides Governor Hoeven (won't run)?
OH: Mike DeWine (R) Did you see the joke of a candidate the Democrats put up against Senator Voinovich this past year. Consider this, DeWine is more popular than Voinovich. Wouldn't be shocked if Jerry Springer didn't try it this year. Wouldn't be shocked if he made Alan Keyes look like a great candidate either. DeWine wins in a blowout.
PA: Rick Santorum (R) National Democrats are going to come after Santorum hard. However, no stellar state Democrat is going to step up to run against him. Likely nominee? State Treasurer Barbara Hafer The DSCC will fund her very well, but she can't win.
RI: Lincoln Chafee (R) First question is . . . is he still a Republican by 2006? If no, we can't beat him. If yes, well, they can't beat him either. Odd situation.
TN: Bill Frist (R) Supposedly, Senator Frist is retiring (possibly to begin a presidential campaign). This will be a Senate battleground state. Expect Congressman Harold Ford (D) to run against former Congressman Ed Bryant. There are also rumors abounding that Al Gore may try for a comeback. This race is going to be tight. Bryant's best strategy will be to nationalize it and bring in President Bush early and often.
TX: Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) If she runs again, no contest. But rumor has it that Senator Hutchison may be running for Governor in 2006. Open seat that is an easy pickup for a Republican? Hmmm. My money is on Congressman Pete Sessions or Karen Hughes running for the seat. Democrats may try to bring back now former Congressman Martin Frost.
UT: Orrin Hatch (R) If he runs again, Hatch is a lock. His name is being dropped for a possible Supreme Court appointment though. If that happens, former Governor and current EPA Director Mike Leavitt is an easy winner.
VT: Jim Jeffords (I) Oooo. Tell me we don't want this one!!! Problem is, I doubt we get it. But, my money says that Jeffords doesn't get it either unless he switches to a Democrat before the election. A threeway race of Jeffords, Lt. Governor Brian Dubie (R) and Attorney General Bill Sorrell (D) could be interesting though. Split the Dems just enough and it's a possibility of a pickup.
VA: George Allen (R) Allen is a popular Senator who was a popular Governor before that. He receives only token opposition, wins in a landslide and begins thinking about a different race for 2008.
WA: Maria Cantwell (D) Cantwell won the closest Senate race in 200 (what is it with Washington and close races???). She should be vulnerable. Can someone PLEASE talk Jennifer Dunn out of retirement? If that doesn't work, there are two more stong possibilities . . newly elected Congressman Dave Reichert and if he doesn't win this Governor's race, Dino Rossi.
WV: Robert Byrd (D) How can a man that has 90% of the state named after him lose? He can't, well at least not this time.
WI: Herb Kohl (D) Secretary Tommy Thompson is assumed to be resigning from the cabinet. Run Tommy run! If he doesn't, not sure there is a Republican strong enough to take on Kohl.
WY: Craig Thomas (R) Who? Yeah, one of the disadvantages of living in a SOLID Republican small state is that no one knows who you are. One of the advantages is that you get re-elected with 85-90% of the vote. Early congratulations on your re-election Senator Thomas!
You forgot CA.
Feinstein is up for reelection.
I was hoping that Condi Rice might come home and run...
and win the seat if she did run.
Great stuff.
Whoops! Sorry I forgot that one. I'm doubting Condi will run for it. She would have to start campaigning a year in advance and can't really do that as Secretary of State. I think she will be a force to be reckoned with later, either as a V.P. pick in '08 or taking on Barbara Boxer in '10.
Isn't there someone to take on Feinstein? David Dreier perhaps?
"David Dreier?"
sorry, we don't allow profanity here. LOL
but I would like to see Chris Cox run if Condi doesn't...
Good vanity.
All other vanity writers take note.
ping for later - I think my list pretty much concurs with yours
Thanks for posting this info.
Candice Miller and Mike Rogers are the best shots. Abraham lost to Stabenow once and while I like Ted Nugent, he won't win.
Another athlete you might see in 2006 is Al Leiter. It seems to be perfect timing for him to take a run for the NJ seat since he's retiring after next season and he is said to have political aspirations.
Ct: There is simply nothing positive to be said about Chris Shays. Nothing.
RI: Thank god it's too small to count. Oh, and Chafee sucks.
NY: I bet the Hell beast is going to resign her senate seat or simply not run again and move to another(red) state to launch her campaign for 08.
Me: Snow, who cares?
I think Al Leiter would be a great candidate for whatever he wants to run for. That being said, it's hard to start out with the Senate. Any chance he lives in a Democrat Congressional district?
bttt
Hey, never said I was the biggest David Dreier fan. However, I'm not sure a conservative could win California. I think it may take a moderate Republican. Dreier fits that bill. I've also heard rumors about Kelsey Grammar considering the race.
If she steps down, start practicing saying "Senator Bonilla"
Orrin Hatch is 70 years old. NFW that he gets nominated for the Supremes.
VA think again!
If Gov. Mark Warner is thinking about the White House, this race will be the mediawatch Senate race in 2006. This will be watched like Gov. Hunt (D) v. Sen. Helms (R) in North Carolina in 1984.
If Byrd retires, I think Capito wins fairly easily. Does Retton still live in WV? If she does, how about a run for Congress?
If you're right, GOP picks up about four more seats. I'll take it.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.