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NYT debunked on divorce rates in red states (JUNK SCIENCE!)
Freeper Analysis ^
| 11-16-2004
| Beelzebubba
Posted on 11/16/2004 9:30:12 AM PST by Atlas Sneezed
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To: Beelzebubba
Puhleeze. NYC and LA and SF are in the blue states. No way any state has a higher divorce rate than those areas.
21
posted on
11/16/2004 10:06:52 AM PST
by
MEGoody
(Way to go, America! 4 more years!)
To: Beelzebubba
The statistics ares also flawed because they don't show who is getting the divorces. Red states aren't entirely populated by Republicans.
To: cwd26
I agree. I live in Nevadas - 160,000 marriages to 15,000 or so divorces. Of course, plenty of folks from other states come to NV to marry in Vegas and go back to their home state and live happily ever after, or at the very least, get a divorce there.
Also, there was always a fallacy with the folks who insisted 'half of marriages end in divorce.' At any given time in the population there is a 'backlog' of several decades of married couples, and some of them get divorced, and many of them don't.
If a state has 40,000 marriages in one year and 20,000 divorces, a random dimwit would conclude that 'half of marriages end in divorce.'
That doesn't factor in, say, a 35 year backlog of married couples - some who have divorced, many who haven't, and who aren't really being factored in.
23
posted on
11/16/2004 10:16:24 AM PST
by
HitmanLV
(I will not be pushed, filed, stamped, indexed, briefed, debriefed or numbered. My life is my own.)
To: Beelzebubba
I wonder what the black crime rate in the blue states versus the black crime rate in the red states compares. Then I would like to see the overall crime rate of the blue versus red state comparison. Better yet, make the rates evaluated as to blue versus red COUNTIES instead of states. I believe there would be some eye opening results.
24
posted on
11/16/2004 10:48:04 AM PST
by
vetvetdoug
(In memory of T/Sgt. Secundino "Dean" Baldonado, Jarales, NM-KIA Bien Hoa AFB, RVN 1965)
To: Beelzebubba
25
posted on
11/16/2004 11:13:08 AM PST
by
Grampa Dave
(FNC/ABCNNBCBS & the MSM fishwraps are the Rathering Fraudcasters of America!)
To: Beelzebubba
There are a few stats, that the libs have a hard time massaging:
1. Murder Rates
2. Armed Robery Rates
3. Auto Theft Rates
4. Assualt rates
This data needs to be worked by county/city. California for example is a blue state, yet the real voting area for the rats are in LA, San Jose and the Bay area. I'm sure that the murder rate is very high in those cities/counties versus the rest of the state.
26
posted on
11/16/2004 11:16:59 AM PST
by
Grampa Dave
(FNC/ABCNNBCBS & the MSM fishwraps are the Rathering Fraudcasters of America!)
To: Beelzebubba
Comparing "red states" against "blue states" is a flawed exercise to begin with. "Blue states" are blue mainly because they have larger (and a greater number of) concentrated parasite nests (cities). Better to compare red counties against blue counties.
To: Beelzebubba
I have a bit more data (2001).
Average difference from National average.
Marriage Rate Divorce Rate
D -0.505263158 -0.442105263
w/o HI -1.2 -0.455555556
R 2.125 0.478125
w/o NV 0.04516129 0.403225806
Data Source: http://www.census.gov/prod/2003pubs/02statab/vitstat.pdf
(last page)
I am now working on factoring in race. According to http://www.divorcereform.org/mel/adivorceusa.html :
"As of March 1997, the U.S. had more than 19 million divorced people, or 9.9 percent of those 18 and over. The
median age of divorced people is about 50, and 58 percent are women. Among whites, 9.8 percent are divorced, compared with 11.3 percent of blacks and 7.6 percent of Hispanics. Divorce rates in urban areas are higher than in rural areas."
Since Southern states have a higher population of black americans (who vote D), the southern divorce rates should be expected to be higher.
Are the liberals now saying that the Blacks are bad because they get divorced more? They've already called them a burden since the same states with higher populations of minorities (and more poor people) use more gov't/welfare money.
28
posted on
11/16/2004 12:37:24 PM PST
by
xusafflyer
(Keep paying those taxes California. Mexico thanks you.)
To: xusafflyer
Good work taking up the analysis.
Be careful not simply to average states with each other to get your R and D numbers. You need to do weighted averages by population.
29
posted on
11/16/2004 4:02:54 PM PST
by
Atlas Sneezed
(Your Friendly Freeper Patent Attorney)
To: Beelzebubba
Sorry, but I always laugh when I see headers which include charges of junk science, as more often than not the debunk is more junk than the original target. And that seems to be the case, here. In this case, the statistics you provide are even more meaningless than the ones in the NYT.
Specifically, the New York Times clearly compares number of divorces per married person (not total population, as you state). This is a meaningful comparison, as it gives us a somewhat accurate benchmark to compare the relative likelihood of divorce occurring for a single individual.
You rebut with the number of divorces as a function of the number of marriages. While this is of marginal interest, it is far more misleading than the NYT data.
Why? Here's two examples:
PERSON #1: Gets married, stays married 25 years, divorces, and doesn't remarry.
PERSON #2: Gets married, divorces after 2 years, remarries, divorces again after 3 years, divorces again, and remarries - this time staying married.
Person #1 had one marriage, and 1 divorce. Or a 100% divorce rate by your math.
Person #2 had 3 marriages and 2 divorces. Or a lower 66.7% divorce rate by your math.
But which of those scenarios is really the more desirable? Or "moral"?
The point being that a simple count of the number of marriages vs. the number of divorces tells us almost nothing.
I've lived for years in both Texas and New York (I live in NH now), and there is certainly a noticeable difference in marriage patterns.
Very few people I've met in the North East get divorced at all, and when they do, they tend to get divorced late and stay divorced. I've never been to a second wedding in the North East.
In Texas, many (most) of the people my age I knew were on their 2nd - or sometimes their 3rd - marriage. And yes, my multiple-divorce friends in Texas are far more likely to go to church than my single-marriage friends in NY and NH.
Another quick note: Comparing the rate of marriage to the total state population is equally pointless, and cannot be used to prove people are more likely to get married in red states. Very few people stay single forever anywhere, red or blue. If you want to prove or disprove that point, you need to compare the rate of FIRST marriages only, not ALL marriages.
Frankly, I don't particularly care about divorce one way or another. But sloppy use of statistics and data irate me. Sorry, hope I didn't offend.
To: omnidroid
Very few people I've met in the North East get divorced at all, and when they do, they tend to get divorced late and stay divorced. I've never been to a second wedding in the North East. Welcome to FR -your thorough opinion and failed attempt to debunk the debunk is noted.
31
posted on
12/19/2004 4:02:07 AM PST
by
DBeers
To: omnidroid
But sloppy use of statistics and data irate me. Sorry, hope I didn't offend.27% of those we polled* are offended.
* Sample size: 3. Margin of error: + - 97%.
32
posted on
12/19/2004 4:14:49 AM PST
by
Lazamataz
("Stay well - Stay safe - Stay armed - Yorktown" -- harpseal)
To: DBeers
Welcome to FR -your thorough opinion and failed attempt to debunk the debunk is noted.I think his commentary holds weight.
33
posted on
12/19/2004 4:15:57 AM PST
by
Lazamataz
("Stay well - Stay safe - Stay armed - Yorktown" -- harpseal)
To: Lazamataz
I think his commentary holds weight. Although his opinions and experiences attempt to favor the false assertion debunked by the original poster -the 'commentary' at best only supports the original posters contention that: "There appears to be no meaningful correlation between politics and divorce."
34
posted on
12/19/2004 5:38:48 AM PST
by
DBeers
To: Beelzebubba
Cool, I'm getting married in the Elvis Chapel at Las Vegas then.
35
posted on
12/19/2004 5:44:28 AM PST
by
Nataku X
(There are no converts in Islam... only hostages.)
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