Posted on 11/16/2004 9:30:12 AM PST by Atlas Sneezed
In a recent New York Times Article, Pam Belluck asked the question: "If blue states care less about moral values, why are divorce rates so low in the bluest of the blue states?" Pam's article went on to cite "divorce rates" from federal data showing that strongly pro-Kerry states have low divorce rates, while pro-Bush bible-belt states have high rates.
This is a deeply flawed misuse of statistics. The reported "divorce rate" is not the rate per marriage, but the rate per population. When one looks at CDC data, one finds that of the 10 states with the lowest ratio of divorces to marriage, half are blue states, half are red. The same 50-50 split holds true for the worst dozen states.
There appears to be no meaningful correlation between politics and divorce. Undoubtedly, because Kerry received most of his support from urban areas where young adults tend to defer marriage, many remain unmarried, and where unmarried gays congregate, the use of "divorce rates" per population creates a strong bias. (Would a higher "divorce rate" - per 1000 residents - among gays in San Francisco and Massachusetts have similar importance?)
The graph below shows the data, with marriage meccas Nevada and Hawaii topping the list with lowest number of divorces per marriage. College havens in New England also are high on the list, perhaps in part due to the number of young adults who live there at the time they get married, but who depart soon after, before potentially divorcing.
2004 presidential election winner is indicated by color, with a dark color indicating that the wonner took at least 55% of the state's vote.
1999 (latest) CDC data, which is incomplete for 4 states (including California) and the District of Columbia.
Data source:
http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr48/48_19_3.pdf
Chart data here:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1281125/posts?page=13#13
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1279756/posts
Of course, people who never get married never divorce. Look at how low the marriage rate is in some of those blue states.
Umm.. I may be missing something, but it doesn't seem to make a whole lot of sense to compare new marriages in a specific year with new divorces in a specific year. Seems like lots of local circumstances could fluctuate those numbers. If there were a way to look at how many total married people are in a state, and then divide the number of divorces by that number, it would be more meaningful, IMO.
Those aren't marriage "rates," they are total numbers (in thousands). You need to divide by population to get a useful rate.
I quote the NYT article "In 2003, the rate in Massachusetts was 5.7 divorces per 1,000 married people, compared with 10.8 in Kentucky, 11.1 in Mississippi and 12.7 in Arkansas."
Unless they're lying (something I wouldn't put past them), they're using Divorces/Married People, not Divorces/People.
If there were a way to look at how many total married people are in a state, and then divide the number of divorces by that number, it would be more meaningful, IMO.
Heck...before you can even have a divorce you have to have a marriage. The problem with this study is that liberals don't even meet the original prerequisite.
For example... Massachusetts had about the same number of marriages as South Carolina, despite having nearly double the population. Tennessee has a smaller population than Mass., but double the number of weddings. Iadho and RI are similar in population, but Idaho has twice the number of marriages.
Why is this? Because the only people who get married in blue states are the ones in the strongest relationships. Trying to make this political is silly: Church-going Catholics, for instance, get divorced rarely, in part because of premarital programs and in part becuase the church discourages divorce. But Kerry lost the Catholic vote, even in Massachusetts, even among Catholics in general. And churchgoing Catholics were twice as likely as non-churchgoing Catholics to vote Republican.
I quote the NYT article "In 2003, the rate in Massachusetts was 5.7 divorces per 1,000 married people, compared with 10.8 in Kentucky, 11.1 in Mississippi and 12.7 in Arkansas."
Yes, I did.
If people in blue states tend to be smarter about making marriage decisions, isn't that something we should celebrate? If people there put off marriage until they are ready and then stay in their marriages longer, isn't that a sign they are living their lives well?
Or, the reverse: if young people in red states are getting married early and divorcing at a high rate, isn't that a sign something is wrong?
Nevada gets credit for the marriage and Texas gets credit for the divorce.
Duh! Gay marriage is still illegal!
Yea... geez... guess they didn't take that factor into consideration!
manufactured news.
Typical liberal
They have to lie and bend the statistics to suit their point of view. They must know they are being dishonest. What is the point of trying to move people to the left with lies?
Being divorced has nothing to do with morality. Being married has nothing to do with morality. Adultery, sodomy, abortion, etc.. have everything to do with morality.
9% divorce rate in Nevada, versus an 87% divorce rate in Oklahoma? Is that for real?
Can't get divorced if you NEVER GOT MARRIED!
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