Anything that would strengthen Bin Laden's claim to be the Mahdi would have significance. Not sure what the significance of the transit of Venus would have, but the two eclipses during the month of Ramadan have significance for the entire year following the event.
Jupiter passing behind the moon may or may not have significance to Bin Laden and his friends. If it does, it still may not affect their timing, other than to give them confidence that allah is with them. But given the start of Hanukkah on the same day, it might.
In a purely strategic sense, waiting until Iran has nukes would make a lot of sense. Why attack the U.S. in a big way, thus giving us an excuse to take out Iran's nukes, when all they have to do is wait a few more months? If I were Iran, I would put all the pressure I could on Al Qaida to hold off. Once Iran has nukes, Hezbollah can join in the "fun", thus multiplying the impact of whatever Al Qaida thinks they can do.
"In a purely strategic sense, waiting until Iran has nukes would make a lot of sense. Why attack the U.S. in a big way, thus giving us an excuse to take out Iran's nukes, when all they have to do is wait a few more months? If I were Iran, I would put all the pressure I could on Al Qaida to hold off."
Babbin and Eagleburger were on MSNBC last night and both confirmed the existence of a rumor (not its veracity) that Iran has obtained 3 nuclear warheads on the black market.
I am not sure if this is a rehashing of the old rumors that they acquired 3-4 tactical warheads from Kazakhstan in the 1993-1994 time frame or if this is a new story.
In any case, the public time frame on indigenous nuclear production is based on the *known* facilities. The North Korean example shows that the known facilities are merely the iceburg's tip of a clandestine manufacturing infrastructure. Before the existence of the covert uranium enrichment program came to light, most experts put the time frame in years, not months. I assume enrichment has been proceeding for some time at underground sites unknown to the international community.
My guess is that the concerns Powell expressed with regard to warhead design are connected to their satellite launch scheduled to take place sometime in the next few weeks or months. Like the North Korean missile test of 8/31/98, it will seek to demonstrate a capability to deliver a nuclear payload to the continental United States (by missiles in addition to martyrs).
The UBL pre-election threat was aired (not delivered) less than 48 hours after the lunar eclipse.
It is difficult to establish correlations when we are only able to observe successful attacks while attempted attacks that are unsuccessful are unknowable.
In a purely strategic sense, waiting until Iran has nukes would make a lot of sense.
I can agree fully with this theory, especially in view of current events.