Posted on 11/23/2004 4:37:57 PM PST by M. Espinola
WASHINGTON, Nov 23, 2004 (United Press International via COMTEX) -- The harvesting was wrapping up across much of the United States this week although rain across Texas and the South kept the cotton harvest behind schedule.
The Agriculture Department's weekly crop report said Tuesday the cotton harvest was 72 percent complete compared to the 5-year average of 80 percent. Heavy rain did not halt field work but caused some degrading of the quality.
Nevertheless, New York cotton futures were trading about 44 points lower Tuesday. Live cattle futures were up sharply on concerns about mad cow disease and stress on herds caused by bad weather in Texas and the southern Plains states.
Other commodities were nearly harvested, but slightly behind the average progress.
Winter wheat plantings were at 95 percent complete; however, there were some delays due to heavy rain in the southern Plains and a lack of precipitation in the northern Plains that is keeping the subsoil dryer than farmers like to see.
That cotton picking weather!
Where did the hemp futures finish?
Muleteam1
With the huge demand from Mainland China and now some crop problems cotton price, as of today were 49 cents, but a year ago when China imports peaked, the price reached 85 cents. Cotton looks to be on the upswing price-wise, and the worse the weather in the leading U.S. production state, the higher prices should climb.
Is the forecast for more snow and rain for the rest of the week?
Muleteam1
Thank you for the detailed response. You know cotton. Have you ever traded either Cotton Futures or Options? Being physically in any given crop production zone, as well as having an in-depth understanding of the crop itself, can be of vast assistance, if one is activly involved in trading them.
Here is a cotton market report for today: 'The upside should be limited as the market is expecting a large U.S. crop of over 22 million bales. The demand picture will need to improve in order for this trend to reverse. Rain in West Texas has delayed the harvest. The USDA Weekly Crop Progress Report showed that 45% of the Texas crop has been harvested versus the average of 66% for this time of the year. Support for the March contract is at 42.80-43.00. Resistance is at 44.00-44.20.'
I drove past a nice cotton field around Brawley, CA, Friday. It hadn't been picked. They had a couple of inches of rain Saturday and Sunday....in the south California desert. Wet lint..no pick.
Egypt produces cotton. Does China?
I am afraid I get lost rather quickly when I talk to the real farmers out here. Most of my cotton experience comes from a career in the USDA where I worked on several National cotton programs.
I have to say the closest I've been to futures trading is picking up the ship arrival reports from the Board of Trade at New Orleans every morning for several years. Interesting place but I think futures trading may now be a little too risky for a man my age. Ha!
I was just outside and it seems that everything is trying to dry out. It looks like it we will have sunlight now until next weekend. However, they like to say out here, "If you don't like the weather, hang around five minutes. I'll change."
Muleteam1
This is a breakdown of global cotton production:
http://www.cottonusa.org/files/economicData/ctn-trade-Nov-2004.pdf
I myself usually remain away from futures and do options. If you paid $300 or $500 for an option and it finished out of the money you would only be out the cost of the option plus another $20 to $35 in exchange fees, taxes & the brokers commission. Futures have margin calls and they can be deadly. Right now the 'currencies' and the 'energies along with 'metals' have been really moving. The threat of a hard freeze in the orange grove areas of Florida will have OJ jumping upward.
Yes anything even near Frostproof, Florida scares the fresh fruit market. LOL! Florida oranges, another program I worked on somewhere way back there.
Muleteam1
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.