Ukraine turmoil widens Russia-West rift

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Political turmoil in Ukraine has widened a rift between Russia and the West, but analysts say Moscow is unlikely to let disagreement over a presidential poll in the ex-Soviet state turn into a Cold War-style standoff.

Sunday's run-off poll gave Ukrainian voters the choice of keeping traditional ties with Russia or tacking towards the West and a European Union that has expanded up to their border.

The Kremlin, which sees Ukraine as part of a strategic buffer zone, invested millions of dollars and sent top experts to help pro-Russian Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich defeat Western-leaning candidate Viktor Yushchenko.

But it did not work out quite as planned. Tens of thousands of protesters hit the streets in Kiev and other cities to back Yushchenko who accused the authorities of cheating him out of a win in polls Western observers said were tarnished by fraud.

On the one hand, President Vladimir Putin wants to reinforce Moscow's influence over former Soviet republics and so is keen to have a sympathetic president in Ukraine.

On the other, Putin has found himself confronting a chorus of criticism from the West -- and key trade partners -- denouncing the poll and demanding a review of its results.

"I don't think that Kremlin support for Yanukovich was a mistake," Vyacheslav Nikonov, the head of political think-tank Politika, said.

"Yushchenko's victory would mean Ukraine joining NATO in the next two years and its departure from a planned common market -- something the Kremlin cannot afford."

EU officials said Russia's role in the Ukrainian crisis be will raised at a summit starting in the Hague on Thursday.

And the U.S. State Department has summoned the Russian ambassador to Washington to express concerns about Putin's congratulations to Yanukovich sent before the election results were published.

"Ukraine is a major democratic state ... Don't teach Ukraine democracy," he said on Tuesday.

Putin has repeatedly stressed Russia must partner the West and stop looking at NATO or the EU as rivals or foes.

But analysts say despite the desire to be closer, the Kremlin has found the process humiliating.

"It's a kind of friendship where one partner does what it wants to and leaves the other to smile," Nezavisimaya Gazeta daily wrote late last week.

Russia has had to reluctantly accept the decision by NATO to give membership to the Baltic States -- once under Kremlin rule -- and a Western military presence in other parts of the old Soviet empire in the Caucasus and Central Asia.

And a year ago, Russia was forced to watch a people-power revolt put a West-leaning president into office in Georgia.

However much it hurts, analysts said Russia was just as unlikely to push too hard to impose its will over Ukraine, the former Soviet republic closest to the Russian heart.

"I think attempts to use force can be ruled out," said analyst for the Institute of Europe, Vladimir Shveitser.

"In fact, the polls showed that Russia's ability to influence events in Ukraine is limited," he added. "There is a long process of attempts to find a compromise ahead."

Boris Makarenko of the Centre of Political Technologies think-tank suggested that first signs of Moscow looking for a compromise over Ukraine had already emerged.

Hours after congratulating Yanukovich, Putin rowed back by saying he was still waiting for the official and final result.

"This was a clear message to Yanukovich: no one needs trouble here, go and strike a deal with Yushchenko," Makarenko said.

Powell: U.S. Rejects Ukraine Vote Results

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Nov 24, 1:19 PM (ET)

By BARRY SCHWEID

(AP) U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell gestures during a press conference at the end of a two-day...
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WASHINGTON (AP) - Secretary of State Colin Powell said Wednesday the United States cannot accept the results of elections in Ukraine, which the opposition says was marred by fraud.

Powell warned "there will be consequences" for the United States' relationship with Ukraine as a result of the developments in the former Soviet bloc nation.

Powell spoke shortly after election officials in Ukraine declared that Kremlin-backed Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych won the election over opposition candidate Viktor Yushchenko. The announcement raised fears of violence in Kiev, where tens of thousands of demonstrators have been demanding that the results be overturned.

"We cannot accept this result as legitimate because it does not meet international standards" and allegations of fraud hadn't been investigated, Powell said at a news conference.

Powell said he spoke with outgoing Ukraine President Leonid Kuchma and urged that his government not crack down on demonstrators. He also spoke with other regional leaders, including Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.

Powell did not elaborate about his conversation with Lavrov, but said he advocated a solution to the crisis in Ukraine that is "based on the law, using legal procedures."

The State Department confirmed Tuesday that it had summoned the Russian ambassador and discussed Ukraine. The Kremlin described the meeting as "unprecedented interference" in another country's affairs.

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