Posted on 11/24/2004 10:41:30 PM PST by FairOpinion
The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) has restated its belief that Iran has secretly pursued nuclear weapons, and also says North Korea is continuing to develop ballistic missiles that could reach parts of the United States. The CIA posted the unclassified report on its Internet website.
The report covers activities related to weapons of mass destruction for several nations and terrorist networks in the second half of last year.
It says that Iran "continued to vigorously pursue indigenous programs to produce nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons" and that Iran's clandestine nuclear program received "significant assistance" in the past from the proliferation network headed by Pakistani scientist A.Q. Khan.
The report also alleges that Iran has worked to improve its delivery systems for weapons of mass destruction, and that the nation continues to use its civilian nuclear energy program as a shield to hide a weapons program.
The report notes a series of steps by North Korea, including its stated intention to resume nuclear activities that had been frozen under the 1994 U.S.-North Korea Agreed Framework, its completion of the reprocessing of spent fuel rods, and the utilization of plutonium to increase the size of its deterrent nuclear force.
The report says by the end of last year, North Korea was nearly self-sufficient in developing and producing ballistic missiles, and may be ready to flight-test a multiple-stage missile that could potentially reach U.S. soil.
The CIA report says the risk of terrorist networks like al-Qaida using chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear materials remained high last year. But it notes that any attacks would likely be small-scale in nature, utilizing readily-obtainable materials and improvised delivery systems, such as a so-called "dirty bomb." The report adds that terrorist groups may launch a conventional attack on a U.S. chemical or nuclear facility in hopes of sparking panic and economic disruption.
The director of the Virginia-based GlobalSecurity.org Internet site, John Pike, notes that the CIA report points to progress in containing the spread of weapons of mass destruction in only one country, Libya.
"It was interesting to see the extensive discussion of their concerns about al-Qaida aquiring weapons of mass destruction," he noted. "Iraq has been invaded and found to have no weapons. Libya has voluntarily given theirs up. [But] Iran and North Korea seem to be moving ahead and aquiring more weapons of mass destruction. So it is definitely a mixed report card -- some good news, some bad news and some worrisome news."
U.S. law requires the CIA provide regular assessments of other counties' activities concerning the acquisition, development, and production of weapons of mass destruction. Although the reports are made public, they may also contain a classified annex intended only for select members of Congress.
The part about Al Qaeda in the CIA reports:
One of our highest concerns is al-Qa'ida's stated readiness to attempt unconventional attacks against us. As early as 1998, Usama Bin Ladin publicly declared that acquiring unconventional weapons was "a religious duty." In 2003, an extremist cleric who supports al-Qa'ida issued a fatwa that purports to provide a religious justification for the use of WMD against the United States.
Al-Qa'ida and associated extremist groups have a wide variety of potential agents and delivery means to choose from for CBRN attacks. The success of any al-Qa'ida attacks and the number of ensuing casualties would depend on many factors, including the technical expertise of those involved, but most scenarios could cause panic and disruption.
Several groups of mujahidin associated with al-Qa'ida have planned "poison plot" attacks in Europe with easily produced chemicals and toxins best suited to assassination and small-scale scenarios. These agents could cause hundreds of casualties and widespread panic if used in multiple simultaneous attacks.
Analysis of an al-Qa'ida document recovered in Afghanistan in the summer of 2002 indicates the group has crude procedures for making mustard agent, sarin, and VX.
Both 11 September attack leader Mohammad Atta and Zacharias Moussaoui-arrested by the FBI before the 11 September attacks-expressed interest in crop dusters, raising our concern that al-Qa'ida has considered using aircraft to disseminate BW agents.
Al-Qa'ida is interested in radiological dispersal devices (RDDs) or "dirty bombs." Construction of an RDD is well within its capabilities as radiological materials are relatively easy to acquire from industrial or medical sources.
Documents and equipment recovered from al-Qa'ida facilities in Afghanistan show that al-Qa'ida had conducted research on biological agents. We believe al-Qa'ida's BW program is primarily focused on anthrax for mass casualty attacks, although the group most likely will pursue opportunities to produce and use other biological agents in smaller-scale attacks.
Information from 2003 details the construction of a terrorist cyanide-based chemical weapon that can be made with easily available items, requiring little or no training to assemble and deploy. The plans are widely available to any terrorist. Such a device could produce a lethal concentration of poisonous gases in an enclosed area.
Usama Bin Ladin and other al-Qa'ida leaders have stated that al-Qa'ida has a religious duty to acquire nuclear weapons. Documents recovered in Afghanistan during Operation Enduring Freedom show that al-Qa'ida was engaged in rudimentary nuclear research, although the extent of its indigenous program is unclear. Outside experts, such as Pakistani nuclear engineer Bashir al-Din Mahmood may have provided some assistance to al-Qa'ida's program. Bashir, who reportedly met with Bin Ladin, discussed information concerning nuclear weapons. Al-Qa'ida has been seeking nuclear material since the early 1990s, according to the testimony of a government witness-Jamal Ahmad Fadl-during the 2001 trail on the al-Qa'ida bombings of the American Embassies in Tanzania and Kenya. Fadl claimed that al-Qa'ida pursued the sale of what they believed was enriched uranium in Sudan in the early 1990s. This effort may have been a "scam" operation, and there is no credible evidence al-Qa'ida actually acquired the uranium. Al-Qa'ida has been the victim of other nuclear "scams" in the past, but it probably has become sensitized to such operations in recent years, in part due to media coverage of nuclear smuggling and scam operations.
In addition, we are alert to the very real possibility that al-Qa'ida or other terrorist groups might also try to launch conventional attacks against the chemical or nuclear industrial infrastructure of the United States to cause panic and economic disruption. In a video aired by Al-Jazirah in September 2002, senior al-Qa'ida members said they had contemplated striking nuclear power plants early in their decision making on targets but dropped the idea for fear it would "get out of control."
"Out of control" to Al Quida being defined as: "The infidels might bomb the crap out of Mecca and Medina if we do that!"
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.