A Dollar Warning

Wall Street Journal ^ | Sunday, November 28, 2004 | Wall Street Journal Editors

[Sarah]

A Dollar Warning America can't devalue its way to prosperity. Sunday, November 28, 2004 12:01 a.m. EST President Bush has let everyone know he intends to pursue an ambitious second-term agenda. But if he wants to know what could spoil his plans even before his second Inaugural, he might consider the market reaction to his Administration's weak dollar complacency.

[lonestar]

I thought we were getting a lot of lumber from Canada.

I live in an area that for decades depended on the timber industries and it has dried up, plants have closed.

[Iris7]

Hmmm.

Could be. Just have to talk the home owners into believing that the price of their houses will go back up right soon. That would be pretty easy, wishful thinking working like it does!

Sort of how the Japanese have done it? Argentina, too, I think? You may be on to something here.

[durasell]

Where are they going to go? They're already up to their neck in debt. They have a garage filled with useless plastic stuff from Wal-Mart. Little Suzie is a cheerleader who can't leave her friends at the "good school." Can you honestly picture some Gap-wearing, house-proud family moving into an (gasp!)apartment?

[ghostrider]

Crude! But your description exactly described the scent in the air relating to our stinky economic logic. Which came first, the chicken (economic illiterate citizens)or the egg (incompetent educators who train them)?

[jwpjr]

A lot of lumber is being shipped to Florida as rebuilding from the very active storm season gets into full swing. It's only a drop in the bucket compared to how much we produce, but I would think that with worldwide supplies already under pressure that sending as much as they are right now to one area would affect the price across the country.

[Iris7]

Chuckled several minutes over your last post. Dang, that was funny. Not funny - ridiculous, but funny - true to human nature, natch.

"What fools these mortals be!" - Shakespeare.

Very much including me, of course!!!

[Iris7]

You aren't talking bad about our (gasp) RETARD SCHOOLS?

Those oases of learning were the teachers are even more retarded than the students? Of totally cynical administrations? Of Jukes and Kallikaks?

Where all involved, every one, complain about poor salaries, about getting no respect, and who vote Democrat to the last man, woman, or other?

[TheExperiment_Is_Over]

The "Experiment" was over along time ago. Read up on what was happening back in Jacksons day and things will become clear. Clinton, as much as I despise the parasite had nothing to do with it. It is much deeper than anything we can see at the Executive level.

[RightWhale]

I also remember that if you had the guts to buy on Tues. or Weds.

My broker doesn't take guts. He wants cash, although he is more than willing to open a margin account for the asking. That is, later on you can ask where your money went.

[hosepipe]

[ Hah, in 1916 Woodrow Wilson said "My God, what have I done. I have doomed this republic by putting all the power in the hands of only a few men." This was in reference to the Bank Reform laws he signed in 1913. ]

And the creation of the Federal Reserve system(1913), act, laws (all while congress was out for Christmas vacation). The creation of a central banking system in the United States. Something Andy Jackson and Abe Lincoln was assinated for being AGAINST.. Jackson survived though.. Lincoln vetoed a bill to create a central bank just a few weeks before the "HIT"..

"Someone" evidently did'nt like that... I know, I know you thought it was about slavery.. Hint: Its always about "the money".. And few americans even KNOW that greenbacks are NOT MONEY..Most don't even what MONEY IS..

[durasell]

"What fools these mortals be!" - Shakespeare

Neither a borrower nor a lender be." -- Shakespeare, Polonius actually, and we all know what happened to him. Dead for a ducat!

[MozamFreepinBique]

I'm no economist, but I can tell you that those of us outside the US who have to buy local currency with dollars are being STRANGLED by the drop in value. I've calculated the increase in prices on everything we buy to be about 23% higher than six months ago. Ouch! Ow!

[jpsb]

Assuming that the Bush Administration and Greenspand know what they are doing, then there is a reason why they are not trying to keep the dollar strong. A couple of possibilities

Trade deficit is really getting way out of hand and becoming an embarrassment to the free trading neo-cons. Something must be done or nation's manurfacturing base (read jobs) will all but disappear. Leaving the USA as a poor third world type country. Solution let the dollar fall until imports loss their price advantage over domestic goods.

Similarly Break the Chinese currency peg to the US dollar. China has the value of it's currency, the Yaun, pegged to the US dollar, this effectively gives Chinese goods a permanent advantage over US goods. With this permanent advantage the US will never be able to compete in either the US or Chinese market. Something must be done. Solution, a game of chicken, make the Yaun worthless by making the dollar worthless effectively wiping out the value of all the dollars being hoarded by the Chinese.

The debt load of the USA is enormous and growing, something must be done to get rid of that debt. Solution, the debt is in dollars so reduce the real debt by reducing the value of the dollar.

The Bush Administration has absolute faith in the free market and will not intervene one way or the other. They believe that the best course is to allow the market to set the price of the dollar, if that means a big drop in value, so be it.

Anyone have any other ideas? Certainly does appear that the Bush Administration has a hands off policy when it comes to a falling dollar.

[jpsb]

Yea that is down side of a rapidly falling currency, everyone gets a paycut. You, living overseas, see it first, but we living in the usa will feel it in a few months. But Yall are taking a double hit since the nation you live in most likely does not allow cheap import to flood it's market, so you don't get to to buy cheap chicom junk at wallmart.

[Kozak]

while China consumes much of our lumber, China is conserving its own huge forest preverses in Communist (or more recently, fascist) fashion.

Brilliantly stupid communist fashion. In case you haven't heard lumber is a renewable resource. If we weren't cutting them down for lumbar, we wouldn't be growing them. we havemore trees now then we did at the turn of the last century. We are not running out of trees.

[Uriah]

Wrong, yes the storms are requiring additional construction materials, but with the numbers of general contractors, and subs staying the same only so much work can be produced, so while new construction contracts may be completed slighly later the same amount of material is used on monthly basis.

[Starwind]

Hi. Long time no post. Glad to see you're still around. I'm easing back into posting more, but I won't be posting the econ reports, as Reuters has long since stopped producing the news summaries. I will likely post some commentary and analysis from time to time.

[hosepipe]

[ Anyone have any other ideas? Certainly does appear that the Bush Administration has a hands off policy when it comes to a falling dollar. ]

Fiat money is'nt money, because its fiat..
Chinas financial progress is pegged to the U.S. market..
Thats why they(the Chinese) are looking to expand to other nations.. and get raw material from, say, "Africa(currently)", expanding their hegemony at the same time.. The Chinese are not stupid.. even with capitalism.. Half of America IS stupid(Clinton/Gore, Kerry).. They are counting on that..

However, the tide may be changeing. Did I say "may be". Ah! yes I did.. Alaska has more oil, natural gas and coal than the Saudi's and Iraq put together,, AND about any other raw material that America needs.. Alaska is bigger than the entire western U.S.... and a treasure trove of resources. which the democrats have blocked useing for decades now..

WHY ?... because democrats depise america generally and specifically in relation to americas soverignty.. Hopefully that will change.. and foreign companys will NOT be used to extract those resources.. like British and French companys..

[REDWOOD99]

We do get a lot of lumber from Canada. However, there is an ongoing dispute that is currently causing some discontent between us and the Canadians that stems from Canada's subsidizing their timber industry. The U.S. has slapped a tarriff on softwood lumber imported from Canada.

[REDWOOD99]

The lumber being shipped to Florida has extended the season for some mills. Usuallt when the weather begins to turn cold, construction slows. Lumber mills slow their production in step with demand. The price of lumber has actually dropped by nearly 30% since the hurricane.