2006 Senate Election Crucial to Both Parties

SeaMax News ^ | 11/28/2004 | Joseph Taranto

[Joe Taranto]

It’s been almost a month since President Bush was re-elected to a second term, and many are already looking ahead to the mid-term Senate races. There will be 33 seats up for grabs in 2006, and this could lead to a decisive victory for Republicans in Congress.

Five of the seventeen Democrats whose terms expire in 2006 are from current red states. This means that if these 2004 Bush states also vote Republican in 2006, the party could get a filibuster-breaking majority of 60.

It also affords Bush an opportunity to flex his political muscles, as he did so effectively in the 2002 midterm elections. The 2002 elections marked the first time a sitting President won control of the Senate in a midterm election. Traditionally, the party in power loses seats.

It is also important that Republicans retain their seats in 2004 blue states. Of the 33 seats which will be elected in two years, 15 belong to Republicans. Three of these Senators are in states which went to Kerry on Election Day.

The red states with Democratic senators include Florida, Nebraska, New Mexico, North Carolina, and West Virginia. The blue states with sitting Republicans are Maine, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island.

The way the Bush administration proves itself in the next two years will be crucial, as the mid-term elections often reflect the job of the party in power. If Bush continues to succeed in the War on Terror and hopefully makes great strides in Iraq, it is likely that the mood in the country will shift in his favor, thereby garnering support for Republican Senate candidates.

On November 2, we watched as an increasingly liberal Democratic party lost the support of many of its former loyalists. Since then, some Democrats have been talking about moving to the center on more issues.

Obviously, the party divisions among the current Congress are strong, but efforts are already being made to help those in Congress become more moderate in their ideologies. Heading up the “Centrist Coalition,” a group of Senators committed to this idea, is the incumbent from red state Nebraska, Democrat Ben Nelson.

Also involved in this coalition are Olympia Snowe, a Republican from blue state Maine, and Joseph Lieberman, a Democrat from Conneticut. Both of these Senators, along with Nelson, are running for re-election in 2006.

The question now is whether this shift to the center will help any of their re-election campaigns.

Much about the 2006 Senate races is still up in the air, but what we do know for certain is that red state Democrats will be feeling the political pressure to cooperate with President Bush.