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...AND POTENTIAL CANDIDATES ARE CONSIDERED.

Government spokesman Abdullah Ramezanzadeh announced on 15 November that former Science, Research, and Technology Minister Mustafa Moin has agreed to run for president as the candidate of the reformist Islamic Iran Participation Party (IIPP) and the Mujahedin of the Islamic Revolution Organization, Mehr News Agency reported. According to Ramezanzadeh, the reformists' main problem is that they have lost touch with the public.

Reformists announced their interest in Moin shortly after former Prime Minister Mir-Hussein Musavi made clear that he is not interested in being a candidate (see "RFE/RL Iran Report," 25 October 2004). At that time, publications such as "Sharq" stressed Moin's experience in the executive branch and his credibility with the student population.

Hojatoleslam Hadi Qabel of the IIPP's central committee noted these factors and more when he discussed Moin in an article in the 28 October "Farhang-i Ashti." Another factor arguing for Moin, according to Qabel, is that the Guardians Council is likely to approve of his candidacy. Qabel went on to predict that the reformists are likely to secure about 65 percent of the votes on election day. Asked about the possibility of Hojatoleslam Muhammad Asqar Musavi-Khoeniha being a reformist candidate, Qabel agreed that he is an influential person, but prefers to work behind the scenes. Moreover, Qabel continued, the possibility of being a candidate has not been discussed with Musavi- Khoeniha, who is a leading figure in the Militant Clerics Association (Majma-yi Ruhaniyun-i Mobarez).

Not only is Moin not a threat to the conservatives, but his candidacy would legitimize approbatory supervision, the process by which the Guardians Council vets candidates, Human Dur-Andish writes in the 1 November "Farhang-i Ashti." The most viable candidates for the reformists, he continues, are Musavi-Khoeniha and Hojatoleslam Hassan Khomeini. Musavi-Khoeniha, viewed as "the father of the modern left," has the charisma needed to restore unity among the reformists, according to Dur-Andish, and he is credible as well. Dur-Andish also noted that there is a risk that the Guardians Council will not approve Moin's candidacy. Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of revolutionary leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, enjoys several advantages, the article continues. Chief among these are the likelihood that his candidacy will win approval, as well as his popularity among the traditional right.

Traditional conservatives and the more radical right-wing are somewhat divided on where they want to go and whom they want to support. Among their possible candidates are former state broadcasting chief Ali Larijani, who now is an adviser to the supreme leader; Tehran Mayor Mahmud Ahmadinejad; former Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Velayati, who also serves as an adviser to the supreme leader; and former labor minister and current Tehran parliamentary representative Ahmad Tavakoli. Ahmadinejad is backed by younger conservatives, "Etemad" reported on 8 November. Tavakoli says that he will be a candidate only if Expediency Council Chairman Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani runs for office, "Sharq" reported on 15 November. Larijani said in a 13 November speech in Babol that he is willing to run as a candidate if he thinks he can be effective, the Iranian Students News Agency (ISNA) reported. "Factions are holding consultations and they are trying to establish a consensus of opinion before they name their candidates," he added. "Each faction will officially name its candidate soon."

Larijani's comments at a 16 November session on the upcoming election sounded more like a stump speech. He said that the legislature can enact numerous laws, but that this is meaningless if the executive branch ignores people's needs. He also discussed unemployment, regional affairs, Iraq, Israel, and security affairs. In closing he again addressed the election: "Conservatives must use all their power to encourage the people to participate in the elections and must give priority to unity and avoid division." The Islamic Coalition Party's central council met with Velayati, according to "Aftab-i Yazd" on 23 November, and questioned him on a number of issues. The party said it intends to meet with other candidates.

The possibility of Hashemi-Rafsanjani being a candidate continues to be a major topic of discussion. He has said that he wants younger figures to become politically active, but he also has said he would run if it is in the country's interest. Expediency Council Secretary Mohsen Rezai said on 23 November that he believes it is "very unlikely" that Hashemi-Rafsanjani would run for president, Fars News Agency reported. Gholamali Dehqan, spokesman for the politically pragmatic Moderation and Development Party (Hizb-i Ettedal va Toseh), said on 7 November that Hashemi-Rafsanjani represents political moderation and discourse, ISNA reported. Dehqan added that Hashemi-Rafsanjani stands for development, construction, pursuit of reforms, and the combination of realism and idealism.

Thirteen political organizations announced after a 16 November meeting that they would like Hashemi-Rafsanjani to be a candidate, the Iranian Labor News Agency (ILNA) reported on 17 November. Participants in the meeting included leaders from the Executives of Construction Party, the Moderation and Development Party, the Islamic Labor Party, the House of Labor, and the Society of the Loyalists of the Islamic Revolution (Jamiyat-i Vafadaran-i Inqilab-i Islami). Hassan Ghafurifard, secretary-general of this latter organization, predicted on 20 November that Hashemi-Rafsanjani's candidacy would upset the political calculations of any other candidates, ILNA reported. Ghafurifard did not offer an explanation.

A date for the election has not been set yet, due to differences between the Interior Ministry that runs elections and the Guardians Council, which supervises them (see above). Prospective candidates will register about five weeks before the election. Until then, press speculation about potential candidates is sure to continue. (Bill Samii)

source:RFE/RL Iran Report Vol. 7, No. 42, 29 November 2004