Population to fall 100m in 50 years [Europe]

The Times (UK) ^ | November 30, 2004 | Rory Watson

[Maximilian]

November 30, 2004

Population to fall 100m in 50 years

From Rory Watson in Brussels

IN 50 years there will be almost 100 million fewer people living in Europe, according to a United Nations report.

The UN’s latest study on international migration released yesterday predicts that even if Europe gains an average of 600,000 immigrants a year, its population will fall by 96 million by 2050. Without the new arrivals, the decline would be even more spectacular: 139 million. Already immigration into Europe is partly helping to offset the impact of declining birth rates. The continent’s population would have shrunk by over four million in the final five years of the past century if it were not for the latest wave of immigrants.

In the late 1990s, immigration contributed to at least three-quarters of population growth in Austria, Denmark, Greece, Italy, Luxembourg, Spain and Switzerland. During the past decade, the number of foreigners living in Finland, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain has doubled. However, the UN reports that while immigration can offset many of the consequences of ageing populations and labour shortages, it will not provide salvation for struggling pension programmes.

It gives warning that immigration rates would have to expand “at virtually impossible rates” if there were to be enough people of working age able to finance childhood and retirement schemes. As an example, it points to France which is projected to receive 3.75 million migrants over the next 50 years, but would need to accept 90 million to achieve a satisfactory budgetary ratio between those in and out of work.

Recent years have seen North America overtake Europe as the preferred destination for people looking to start a new life outside their native country. Between 1960 and 2000, the foreign-born population in the US more than tripled from 10 million to 35 million, with a further 8 million in Canada. Whereas four decades ago, six out of every 100 people in North America was an international migrant, the figure has now climbed to 13 per cent.

Europe still had a significant increase in migrants during the same period, up from 14 million to 33 million, raising their proportion of the total population from 3.3 per cent to 6.4 per cent. For statistical purposes, the UN does not count Belarus, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, the Russian Federation and Ukraine as part of Europe.

The report also highlights a change in the pattern of international migration. Whereas 40 years ago, 58 per cent of all migrants had moved to other developing countries as they fled from famine, drought and war, by the end of the century, they number just 37 per cent, while 46 per cent are rebuilding their lives in the developed world. The most recent figures reveal that 175 million people, equivalent to one in every 35 persons on Earth, are living outside the country of their birth.

Emigration can mean a brain drain for developing countries. Emigrants from Africa have triple the schooling of those staying at home. But this is partly offset by the funds that they send home. Remittances to developing countries now total at least $79 billion (£41 billion) and 70 per cent of foreign direct investment in China originates in the Chinese diaspora.

[corkoman]

whos gunna pay for all those pensioners?

[Puppage]

Population to fall 100m in 50 years [Europe]

Well, maybe all the terrorists they've been coddling will kill them?

[BenLurkin]

Not to worry.

Nature abhors a vacuum -- the population will be increased by the cresting wave of invaders from the burkha wearing world.

[7.62 x 51mm]

The population loss of Euro-weenies will be readily replaced by murderous muslim filth. It will get real bloody when they're in the majority.

[proxy_user]

There is one additional problem. By then, the population of the world as a whole will be falling, and countries such as India and China may be considerably more advanced. This will mean that the supply of desirable emigrants may well dry up.

[ApesForEvolution]

Yes, I expect the non-Moo Euros' numbers to all of a sudden drop like a rock one of these years...

[Blue Jays]

Hi Puppage-

You beat me to the "post" button! If the Muslims have their way and continue to detonate bombs on trains and buses, they'll be able to kill (Europeans) faster than the population can reproduce...

~ Blue Jays ~

[Maximilian]

The alarm is finally ringing, but it might be too late to do too much about it. Once again, the story is presented primarily in terms of pension benefits. Apparently the Europeans see the death of their continent primarily through the lens of how it affects their welfare benefits. Losing 100 million population would not bother them as long as the Euro version of Social Security stayed intact.

We shouldn't be too complacent over here and point fingers at Europe alone. The same problems are affecting Japan, the United States, and every other developed country. In fact, this article has some interesting statistics about the huge increase in immigrant population here in the US. Like the Europeans, white Americans are failing to reproduce themselves.

[blanknoone]

So there will be 139 million fewer Native Eurpeans and 43 million more non-Native Europeans. The road to Eurabia. Will the Islamists but the Eurinals on reservations?

[Semper Paratus]

The Eiffel Tower will soon be a minaret.

[ArrogantBustard]

Perhaps I should bring back my old signature line....

[DrDavid]

We shouldn't be too complacent over here and point fingers at Europe alone. The same problems are affecting Japan, the United States, and every other developed country.

This seem like the lower birth rates could be attributed to the widespread use of television.

[hardhead]

This is what happens when you chop up the babies.

[blanknoone]

The same problems are affecting Japan, the United States, and every other developed country.

I don't think the problems are quite parallel. For instance, as much as I dislike the cultural implications of our unassimilated immigrants, I much prefer hordes Mexicans to hordes of Islamofascists. Not good, but also not nearly as bad.

Also, I don't think Japan faces the same immigration problems. They face the same welfare state/population decline fiscal problems, but I don't think they have any sort of immigration/cultural challenge on the scale that the US or EU does.

[diamond6]

There are obviously many reasons for this as stated, but, what can't be ignored is how darn expensive it is to have and raise children. Many women are forced to go to work because one paycheck just doesn't cut it, mortgage, insurance, tuition, doctor bills, taxes, food and clothing sure add up.

Before I get flamed, let me say this, I WANT A BIG FAMILY, I WANT LOTS OF CHILDREN!

So there.

[EternalHope]

This demographic disaster won't happen of course. No way will things continue merrily along the present course for 50 more years.

The reason is that the immigrants the study refers to are Muslims who will refuse to assimilate. Instead, they will seek to impose their religion on their host nations.

This will lead to enormous conflict in those nations that resist. Most of them will try appeasement first, but Muslims cannot be permanently appeased.

It is only a question of when the bloodshed starts. If sooner, the Europeans will win. If later, the Muslims will win. Personally, I think the Muslims will make their move too soon, and therefore lose.

[WorkingClassFilth]

Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of folks. Hey, you suppose that when the Islamics take total control of Europe they might hold a garage sale of infidel artwork instead of slashing and burning it all? I'm thinking a nice Mona Lisa in the shop would be kinda cool...

[Puppage]

Great minds...hmm?

[murphE]

I understand the situation is far worse in Japan, their population will implode eventually. We are slightly better off due to immigration.

I also read somewhere, that in China there will soon be something like 30 million men with no prospects for brides due to their "one child, we want sons, abort the girls" policy.

To me that is the scariest statistic, all that testosterone, and no wives and children to temper and stabilize it.

Sound like war?