Ukraine and the Russian Wish to Return to Super-Power Status

StrategyPage ^ | November 30, 2004 | Austin Bay [Creators Syndicate]

[quidnunc]

Russian bid to return to super-power status is the truly big story behind Ukraine’s rigged election.

At the moment Russia is a European also-ran, a one-time giant with deteriorating clout. However, Russia, plus Ukraine, plus Belarus, plus Khazakstan is a geo-strategic formula for a global power re-born.

This isn’t a new discovery. Before the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, U.S. analysts concluded that the communist leadership would spin off the Baltic and Caucaus Soviet Union. At the same time, however, they would try to keep or link the core empire strength: Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan (RUBK — pronounced “rubik,” as in the tricky, tough to solve puzzle called Rubik’s Cube.)

In the 1991 edition of A Quick and Dirty Guide to War James F. Dunnigan and I wrote that the “most likely” outcome of Soviet breakup would be a RUBK federation of some uncertain type.” The book appeared before the USSR collapsed, but my co-author and I took it as a given that the Soviet Union was kaput.

Wargaming conducted inside the Pentagon in the early 1990s reached a similar conclusion. I received that briefing after a mid-level Pentagon official read my book and wanted to discuss it.

In 1991, economics and population were the driving Kremlin interests in creating the RUBK. Super-power status takes money and a large number of people (how large is arguable, but 200 million is a plausible figure). The common economic interests linking Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan were a potential post-Cold War positive. Russia needed Ukraine’s immense agricultural productivity. We saw Ukraine as benefiting from direct access to Russian natural resources.

-snip-

[anniegetyourgun]

But then, we restate the obvious.....

[headsonpikes]

Now this is the sort of post I like to see from you!

Good choice. ;^)

[Sam the Sham]

Superb points.

It is in the interest of the Ukranian people to share EU prosperity, not be milked for the benefit of a restored Russian Empire.

But will Putin, rather than face a humiliating backdown, do a Tienanmen ?

[DreadCthulhu]

The only way Putin could do a Tienamen would be to physically invade Ukraine. And that could potentially start WWIII. Putin knows Russia isn't strong enough yet to consider this.