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Hugh Hewitt: Watching the Signs (The 2008 GOP Primary Is Already Underway)
The Weekly Standard ^ | December 9, 2004 | Hugh Hewitt

Posted on 12/09/2004 1:27:11 PM PST by RWR8189

The race for 2008 is already underway on the Republican side, you just have to know what to look for.

NOT SINCE 1952 has a presidential election lacked a sitting president or vice president as a contestant, and Ike was about as close as one could get to non-official incumbent. Before that, it was the 1928 race, and there, too, Herbert Hoover was, like Ike, a figure of towering popularity. In other words, there has never not been a front-runner in at least one party in the modern scrambles for the presidency. Here is a bit of evidence that the race for 2008 also has a leader, one along the lines of Eisenhower and the Great Engineer.

The National Federation of Republican Women is one of those groups about which not much is ever written, but which functions as one of the circulatory systems of American politics. There's a Republican Women's, Federated in practically every county of every size, and their monthly gatherings are full of the stuff of Tocqueville. These are the precincts of the proverbial "blue haired legions," but also younger, more partisan activists as well.

I make a point of speaking to a couple of chapters of the Federation every year, more to listen than to inform. (These ladies have legislative chairman's reports that go on for an hour--and they take notes.) Last Monday, just before heading off on vacation, I went to Temecula, California to speak to more than 200 women from the Riverside County Republican Women, Federated. After a recap and an assessment of Arnold Schwarzenegger's plans for a special election in 2005 to confront gerrymandering, I announced the first straw poll of 2008. By a show of hands, I gave the ladies--and a handful of men who were their guests--four choices: Senator John McCain, former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani, Senator Bill Frist, and "other." The results astonished me.

 

RIVERSIDE COUNTY is as "red" as any county in America, and getting redder. Before I spoke, the group had been entertained by the local home-schooling association's girls' choir, and many of the questions I received concerned illegal immigration and Hillary Clinton's ambitions. In other words--this is to use the title of John Podhoretz's invaluable book on places such as Riverside County, Bush Country.

Giuliani swept more than three-quarters of the votes, with the other three choices receiving smatterings of support. Keep in mind that this isn't an exercise in name identification--these women knew each of the candidates--as well as every possible name in the "other" category. This was an informed choice. I stopped what I was doing, repelled the audience, and then conducted a focus group.

Like many other pundits, I have been wondering whether Giuliani can escape the snows of Iowa and New Hampshire in 2008 given that Pat Robertson won the former in 1988 and Pat Buchanan the latter in 1992. Giuliani is too "moderate" to win the GOP nod, right?

Wrong, if these ladies are to be believed. Among the many praises that gushed forth: decisive, experienced, loyal to "W"--an interesting positive, that--funny and, crucially, tough enough to take on the Clintons. There were many praises for Senator Frist, and some for John McCain, but Giuliani has their hearts--already.

I long ago revealed myself as a single-issue voter: I favor the most conservative Republican in the primary most likely to win the general election. The GOP has never had many of what I call this orientation: principled pragmatists. In fact, a debate is raging even now among bloggers such as Patterico, PrestoPundit, CalBlog, In the Agora, and Interocitor, over the arguments for principled pragmatism that I laid out in my last book.

But if the ladies I spoke with on Monday are any indication of a trend--and there are excellent reasons to conclude that they are--the battle may already be over. For Giuliani to consolidate his position with the center-right would only require some deft appearances during the coming struggles over Supreme Court nominees. If he wades into the fray to help confirm the president's nominees, his personal views on abortion will matter far less than if he is absent from these fights. He would also find it useful to get on the side of allowing the people a vote on the defense of marriage amendment through the process of state ratification or denial of ratification to a proposed amendment.

Senator Frist seems to have sensed that the race for the 2008 nomination is already launched, and has responded with tough stands on the "nuclear option" for the judicial nomination process and a rousing defense of the Boy Scouts. Very sharp moves that reflect he is in this for good. The same cannot be said for Senator Hagel who only seems to make news when throwing stones at Bush or the Iraq effort. Bush is the unquestioned hero in the hearts of the activists, and while 2008 is a long way away, that course is much shorter than it used to be because impressions are made early.

 

A FINAL NOTE: There is little upside in being coy anymore. The candidates will almost all blow off the primary caps and raise money as Dean and Bush did in 2004, and that means an early launch in fundraising and organization. Candor is increasingly a valued trait, and the fan dance of yesteryear seems trite. I have blogged on the need for would-be nominees to scout out and sign the next generation of internet talent, especially in the area of fundraising and grassroots communication, and the Shrum Primary of 2003 may be replaced by the Ruffini Primary of 2005. We'll know for sure who is serious when the candidates launch their blogs.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a Giuliani blog up and running in January. The ladies of the Riverside Republican Women Federated would welcome it.

 

 

Hugh Hewitt is the host of a nationally syndicated radio show, and author most recently of If It's Not Close, They Can't Cheat: Crushing the Democrats in Every Election and Why Your Life Depends Upon It. His daily blog can be found at HughHewitt.com.


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Culture/Society; Editorial; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Iowa; US: New Hampshire
KEYWORDS: 2008; 2008gop; 2008primary; frist; gopprimary; guiliani; hewitt; hughhewitt; iowa; mccain; newhampshire; weeklystandard
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To: Ancesthntr

Sticking with the Conservative and electable thing, I'd have to say Franks with VP Jeb would be almost as unstoppable as Rudy and definitely more conservative.


61 posted on 12/09/2004 2:53:59 PM PST by polyester~monkey (4 Senate seats, 4 House Seats, and 52% of the popular vote: AMERICA HAS SPOKEN)
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To: My2Cents

Thanks for the ping, M2C. Something in me is reluctant to get started on 2008 so early, sigh. I know Rudy is probably the early favorite, but much can happen between now and mid-2007 when the next batch of presidential candidates will start declaring themselves. I also know a lot of the "purist" wing of the Republican Party will not want Rudy to get the nomination. But I do think he could win, especially if he selects someone like Dr. Rice as his VP choice. At this very early stage, he has my support. Who runs for what in '06 will go a long way in determining who will declare for the presidency the following year.


62 posted on 12/09/2004 2:55:51 PM PST by Wolfstar (Counting down the days to when the new White House puppy arrives.)
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To: Yardstick
Frist, Guiliani, McCain, Other -- a pretty dismal list. I guess I would have picked Guiliani, too, given the choices.

Imagine in your worst nightmare a filibuster proof RAT dominated Congress and Chuckie Schumer as President and Dianne Fienstein as the VP and that's the kind of gun control you're going to get under RINO Rudy! Same with McCain and Frist.

Jeb won't do it. Condi MIGHT, but it's a B-I-G IF IMHO.

63 posted on 12/09/2004 3:00:11 PM PST by ExSoldier (Democracy is 2 wolves and a lamb voting on dinner. Liberty is a well armed lamb contesting the vote.)
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To: Wolfstar

Frankly, I agree with you. It's way too early to speculate about or name a frontrunner for '08. Too much can happen over the next 3 or so when things get serious. I consider this article a quick fix for us political junkies.


64 posted on 12/09/2004 3:03:16 PM PST by My2Cents ("Well...there you go again.")
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To: West Coast Conservative
Rudy's "tough enough to take on the Clintons" ???

That doesn't compute. He bowed out of a senate race against Hillary - citing health. But now he can run for president? What happened to "health"?

65 posted on 12/09/2004 3:03:58 PM PST by churchillbuff
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To: RWR8189

I sure hope a solid Reagan conservative emerges 'cuz the Hildebeast will win against the losers mentioned.


66 posted on 12/09/2004 3:09:51 PM PST by newfreep
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To: My2Cents
There's also a huge early list of wannabes on the Republican side, many of whom haven't got a prayer of getting the nomination. There was also a nugget I found somewhere a few days ago that made this claim: If the constitutional amendment passed soon enough for Schwarzenneger to run for president (not necessarily '08), he's likely to run as an independent to bypass the Republican primary process.

Doesn't surprise me, since my internal BS meter increasingly wonders if the whole recall thingy was a setup for Arnold to become governor without having to run in a Republican primary. If he runs for reelection in '06, he's not likely to have a significant primary challenge. So that wouldn't be an accurate test of his willingness to face the Republican grassroots on fair and open terms.

At this point, all I can say is thank goodness the President has set an extremely ambitious agenda for his new term, because it will keep everyone in DC too busy to take on a constitutional amendment fight.

67 posted on 12/09/2004 3:13:53 PM PST by Wolfstar (Counting down the days to when the new White House puppy arrives.)
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To: Yardstick

Guiliani? Hmmm, in that case I'll sit it our as in 1976, and hope for something better.


68 posted on 12/09/2004 3:17:51 PM PST by Meldrim
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To: AreaMan
eh...Hewitt's kinda conservative, it depends on the issue

He is against CCWs for the unwashed masses. He is against the Proposition / Initiative process in California (the same one that allowed us to oust the commie Gov. Davis) He is an open borders guy.

Sounds like a good, solid neocon to me .... why don't we nominate him?

The Republican party is in great shape for the shape they're in!(/sarcasm)

69 posted on 12/09/2004 3:35:13 PM PST by iconoclast (Conservative, not partisan.)
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To: traderrob6

He's an unappeasable. He would probably answer 'Staunch Conservative'


70 posted on 12/09/2004 4:31:04 PM PST by zbigreddogz
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To: Yardstick
"-- a pretty dismal list."

That's putting it mildly. I have no idea who this guy is, but somehow it does not strike me that any Republican women's group in CA is a bellweather for '08 candidates. Anyplace in CA is miles to the left of the south or mid-west, Republican or not. Guiliani will have NO support from religious right; absolutely none from NRA; and I'm probably leaving out other hunks of the Republican party who will find his ideas and record wanting.

71 posted on 12/09/2004 4:42:01 PM PST by penowa
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To: All

Guiliani/Kerik


72 posted on 12/09/2004 4:45:41 PM PST by areafiftyone (Democrats = the hamster is dead but the wheel is still spinning)
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To: areafiftyone

Not sure about VP, but Kerik would be a great candidate for Senate in '08. I seriously doubt Lautenberg is going to run again, and even if he did, Kerik might well be able to beat him.


73 posted on 12/09/2004 7:49:40 PM PST by zbigreddogz
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To: My2Cents

Just like the top priority this year was keeping Kerry out huh? Sounds familiar. Sorry, I'm not playing that silly game again. Bin Laden himself couldbe running on the Dem ticket in '08 and I still will not vote for Guliberalani. Fuggedaboutit.


74 posted on 12/09/2004 10:05:03 PM PST by fix
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To: RWR8189

George W. Bush got the nomination because he was the most conservative candidate who could win the general election. I would imagine the person who gets the 2008 nomination will have that same distinction.


75 posted on 12/09/2004 10:19:23 PM PST by JohnBDay
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To: RWR8189
I am the Patterico mentioned in Hugh's column above. I have tried to start a debate on my blog and others regarding the philosophy of principled pragmatism that Hugh advocates in his book. (You can click on the "Patterico" link in the article to see my review of his book, and go here for all the posts on my blog on this topic.) I'd love to hear from some of the FReepers here, since I think you guys are typical of the sort of Republicans that Hugh addresses in his book.

Also, if you don't mind, it would be great if any of you who click over to my blog and like what you see would vote for me in the 2004 Weblog Awards. I am running a very close race with a liberal blog; after 5000+ votes, I am only about 5-6 votes behind. You can vote for me once a day per computer, at this link -- until Sunday, when the contest ends. Any support you guys could give me would be much appreciated. I'd hate to see a liberal win this contest . . .
76 posted on 12/10/2004 9:55:39 AM PST by Patterico
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To: JohnBDay

Allen-Pawlenty has a good ring to it.


77 posted on 12/10/2004 10:00:03 AM PST by mwl1
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To: mariabush

I agree that Huckabee would be a good candidate for Pres in 2008. He is socially conservative so this would keep a large part of the GOP base from sitting out the election. He is fiscally conservative but has voted for tax increases on occasion (such as a 1/8 cent sales tax increase to rehab AR state parks). Having recently lost 100 pounds he's now championing a drive to reform public health by putting more into preventative health measures such as weight-loss and stop smoking plans. He knows how to work with the Dems even more so than W (the Dems have held both houses of the AR State Legislature since Reconstruction, AR has never voted for a US GOP Senator since Reconstruction, and three of the four US Reps are Dems). And I do not believe there are any skeletons in his closet. Plus in 2006 he's term-limited as AR Governor and neither AR US Senator slot is open, so he has two whole years to raise $$$ and get himself out to the country.


78 posted on 12/19/2004 12:46:26 PM PST by txrangerfan (txrangerfan)
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To: txrangerfan
Mike Huckabee is a great person. He is an ordained Baptist Minister, and when our Pastor in Memphis was ill he filled in for him one Sunday. Dr. Rogers is very ticky who stands in the pulpit of our church and I would almost guarantee that if there were any skeletons Gov. Huckabee would not have been invited.

It would really drive the Dems mad to have not only another born again Christian in the White House, but a Baptist Preacher to boot.
79 posted on 12/19/2004 12:53:11 PM PST by Coldwater Creek ('We voted like we prayed")
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To: mariabush

I would trust Dr. Rogers' assessment of one's character as his own is of the highest quality.
Has there ever been an ordained minister as President? Maybe one of the early Presidents was but I'm not certain.


80 posted on 12/20/2004 8:41:42 AM PST by txrangerfan
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