Regionally Rudy would play well in places like MI and PA, where there are lots of northern ethnic Catholics who can relate to Rudy. Also, Rudy does have values --- personal values like leadership and courage. Values aren't just one's political position on abortion.
I don't know how Rudy would play here. A lot of the ethnic Catholics here (myself included) are pro-Life and pro-2a which goes against Rudy. The Catholic life advocates are usually the most hardline against pro-abort Catholics. I don't think my mom will vote for Rudy under any circumstance because of the life issue alone. My dad's vote is easier for Rudy to get, but that's not a given either as he is also pro-life.
On the same note, Rudy's tough, and that is very popular here among much of the same crowd. John Engler's slogan was "Tough enough to bring Michigan back". If he wants to win here, he has to be very careful with the social conservatives here, and go hard-right with a populist streak on economic issues to gain some of those votes. Economic issues killed Bush here, along with the black turnout.
And I don't think Michigan blacks will warm to Rudy very much. I expect Amadou Diallo (shot at 40 times) to be rammed down the throats of voters in Detroit, Flint, and Saginaw to the same effect James Byrd was for Bush in 2000.
There are more social conservatives than economic conservative here, but both have to be staunchly united for a Republican to win here because of Detroit. Can Rudy do it? I don't believe so.
"Regionally Rudy would play well in places like MI and PA, where there are lots of northern ethnic Catholics who can relate to Rudy. Also, Rudy does have values --- personal values like leadership and courage. Values aren't just one's political position on abortion."
No, but values are also family values, and getting divorced twice, including once to marry your mistress, that is going to be a difficult sell to many conservative Americans. I don't think that Giuliani's personal morals are much better than Bill Clinton's.
Now, in terms of geography, I agree that Giuliani might perform better than Bush across the northern industrial states, including PA, OH, MI, WI, and perhaps NJ or DE.
But he needs to hold the South. And, while everyone is talking about Hillary, what happens if the Dems actually do something smart, like running Governor Bredesen of TN or Governor Easley of NC? Or Evan Bayh of IN? Then we will have a pro-choice New Yorker running against a "Southern" Democrat. And it could be a landslide, perhaps in our favor but more likely in favor of the Dems (running on a platform of "change" after 8 years of Republican control.)
And that's not even including a third party in the analysis. There are a lot of conservatives who will NEVER vote for a pro-choice candidate. Practicing Catholics are NOT ALLOWED to vote for pro-choice candidates. And, there will be a lot of good conservatives, who feel that their conscience forces them to look elsewhere. And that's not even considering immigration, gay marriage, and other issues where Giuliani is not a conservative.