Posted on 12/13/2004 12:45:16 PM PST by dead
SYDNEY - Coral reefs around the world could grow by up to a third because of rising ocean temperatures, according to a new Australian study which turns on its head the long-held theory that global warming is killing the reefs.
Previous research predicted a decline of between 20 and 60% in growth of coral reefs by 2100 relative to pre-industrial levels due to increasing carbon dioxide (CO2) levels caused by the greenhouse effect in ocean surface waters.
But the newly published research, by a team led by oceanographer Ben McNeil of Sydney's University of New South Wales, suggests that present coral reef calcification rates are not in decline and are currently equivalent to late 19th century levels.
"Our analysis suggests that ocean warming will foster considerably faster future rates of coral reef growth that will eventually exceed pre-industrial rates by as much as 35% by 2100," McNeil said.
"Our finding stands in stark contrast to previous predictions that coral reef growth will suffer large, potentially catastrophic, decreases in the future."
The research was published in the latest edition of the journal Geophysical Research Letters by McNeil and colleagues Richard Matear of the government's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) and David Barnes of the Australian Institute of Marine Science, at Townsville in north-eastern Australia.
McNeil said their research was confined to one type of coral, which is likely to be typical of the many, but the findings would be regarded as a starting point for future research and a subject of continuing debate.
Experts say seawater surface temperatures and the quantity of carbonate in seawater dictate the growth rate of coral reefs which are built from calcium carbonate when red algae cements together a framework of coral skeletons and sediments.
The Australian scientists have observed the calcification-temperature relationship at significant reef-building colonies around the world in the Indo-Pacific and at massive Porites reef colonies in Australia, Hawaii, Thailand, the Persian Gulf and the South Pacific island of New Ireland.
They say the predicted increase in the rate of coral reef calcification is most likely due to an enhancement in coral metabolism and/or increases in photosynthetic rates of red algae.
They used projections of ocean warming and CO2 concentration from a CSIRO climate model that accounts for atmosphere-ice and ocean carbon cycles.
Matear said the results of the research shows that increases in coral reef calcification associated with ocean warming outweigh decreases associated with increased atmospheric CO2.
"While initially showing a decrease in calcification up to 1964, ocean warming outweighs the CO2 effect and stimulates recovery of coral reef calcification," he said.
"Our results represent an average over the entire coral reef community and it will be important to undertake more specific regional analysis of models to better understand future changes in regions such as Australia's Great Barrier Reef."
A two-year study released earlier this year by Queensland University scientists found the brightly-coloured corals that make up Australia's world-renowned Great Barrier Reef would be largely dead by 2050 because of rising sea temperatures.
AFP
I thought the reefs were dying out!
GLOBAL WARMING IS NOT HAPPENING
ITS NOT REAL !!
ALways strikes me as odd that these scientists believe the only good thing is a sedate, homeostatic geo-climate. The earth's climate has never been static -- it will always get warmer and colder and weeter and drier... until God decides it's time for a make-over.
going to 20 degrees tonight in the deep south. global warming - not here.
Bingo.
I wish someone had told Bush #1 that before he banned Freon. We had perfectly good auto A/C with Freon R-12 and it was cheap to fix when it broke. Now it costs an arm and a leg to get the new A/C systems recharged.
I hate hyper-environmentalism. Not environmentalists themselves, I don't hate anybody, just their stupid mother Gaiya (sp?)belief system that puts amoeba and rats ahead of the welfare of humans.
Cold and Heat cycles are not zero sum gains. Imagine much of Russia as a productive agricultural area instead of buried under ice and snow for much of the year.
Hey if it doesnt benefit the EuroPEEons, Indians and Chinese it doesn't matter.
So now that they admit they were wrong about this, what else are they going to admit to about being wrong?
Not much I'll bet!
Technically the globe is probably getting warmer or cooler at any given time. Expecting such a large and complex system to always maintain the exact same temperature is silly. The greatest weight of evidence suggests the Earth's tempature is cyclical (anyone heard of the ice ages?)
So it seems reasonable that it might be warming over the last few years. What isn't reasonable is clinging to the idea that mankind is causing an unhealthy and unusual warming trend by CO2 emissions. Such models have failed to predict anything accurately, and no longer deserve to be called theories.
On the flip side real scientists have demonstrated that increased CO2 in the atmosphere is excellent for plants. This being the real "green house" effect of such emissions, which one would think that enviormentalists would appreciate.
I predict coral reefs getting bigger, and Mikey Moore getting fatter.
Exactly! And global warming (note lower case) has been happening since the last Ice Age.
Be patient, my northern (liberal) friends will find a way to get it to you.
We could get a good start on eliminating humans just by turning our national defense over to the liberals. If all Americans were killed by terrorists there would only be another 5-3/4 billion humans left to go before the environazi's Nirvana would be realized.
Of course there would be no environazis left to appreciate the wonder of it all, but that's the price they will have to pay for a perfect world.
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