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To: wu_trax
The USA needs to attract $1.8 billion a day in foreign investments.
The U.S. doesn't "need" to attract foreign investments. The exchange rates cover what the money flows mean. It's not some big scheme to excuse the account deficit. That the euro can't kick in the dollar's door means that euro markets are not attracting any more money than what the dollar gives 'em the daily shrug of the currency markets.

Then ask yourself, as the author of the piece does, why US investors are buying overseas when it is more expensive for them to do it with the lower dollar? The author says it's investment money "chasing the currency rally through capital markets." I don't buy that explanation, other than as it means that investors always seek value. But in this case, they're chasing value despite the obstacles of the dollar exchange. Once again, things aren't nearly so bad as folks would have it.

Where you see an absence of euro strength in the face of "dollar weakness," I don't see dollar weakness at all. The dollar is calling the shots here, not the euro, or any other currency. Just becuase the dollar is down doesn't mean it is weak. It is finding its place according to its inherent numbers. The way the press and the doomsayers are screaming the dollar ought to be on its ass. It's not. You say it's got further to fall. I doubt it, and from the pronouncements of yesterday, I'm damned sure the President thinks it ain't falling anymore, either.

You didn't understand what the President did. He wasn't trying to influence the markets -- he can't, and he knows it. He's speaking about it now since he thinks it will strengthen. That way it will look like he influenced it, whereas you and I know both he can only talk on this one.

Btw, all those late 1990s foriegn money inflows? Guess where all that cash went? Uh, let's see, let's start with pets.com... The money came in, and it never went back home.

4 posted on 12/16/2004 5:29:49 PM PST by nicollo
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To: nicollo
The U.S. doesn't "need" to attract foreign investments. The exchange rates cover what the money flows mean. It's not some big scheme to excuse the account deficit. That the euro can't kick in the dollar's door means that euro markets are not attracting any more money than what the dollar gives 'em the daily shrug of the currency markets.

Where do you think the exchange rates come from? If the US doesn't attract enough investments the Dollar needs to fall further, it's the most basic market mechanisms of supply and demand. For the Euro to strengthen against the Dollar it doesn't need to attract a lot of foreign investments, because other than the US the euro zone has a more or less balanced current account.

US investors buy outside the US because they expect the Dollar to fall further. If the dollar keeps falling they make more profit.

If you don't see the exchange rates as an indicator for the strength / weakness of a currency, then what else do you use? It looses purchasing power on the world market, what other signs do you need?

As I already said: Bush has been repeating that same statement for month now. You make it look that he talked about his 'policy of a strong dollar' for the first time, he has not.

OK, so the foreign investments from the late 90s are gone now, for nothing. The rest of the world looses faith in the dollar. And if someone invests in the US he is never going to see that money again. why exactly do you expect the dollar to become stronger again?
7 posted on 12/17/2004 2:23:28 AM PST by wu_trax
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