Sorry for slow reply -- and gonna have to make it quick, as the weekend starts in, oops, five minutes ago!
My bet is that the dollar has gone down as far as its gonna go -- that is, staying within this current range. I say this because I see U.S. economic weaknesses having played out in the exchange as far as they'll go. If investors are now chasing the currency markets through overseas securities then they're a year late on the game, which is evidence enough that it's had its run.
Anyway, your points are well taken and deserve more attention than I can give just now. Have a great weekend!