don't overestimate the Bush win - a 60K vote swing in Ohio, and Kerry is president-elect right now. The 2004 election was not a 1984 redux.
Richardson will be on the ticket, they will do better amongst Hispanics. The first national ticket with a woman at the top, and a Hispanic as the VP, will generate tremendous media atention. If they take every Kerry state, and play for NM, AZ, NV and CO (remember, CO elected a Hispanic senator in a state wide race against a well known republican) - they can get to 270.
The demographics of the US are changing. People move from places like NY to VA and NC, and bring their Democratic votes with them. That's why we are losers in NH and MAINE now, the libs fleeing MASS bring their votes with them. Same with the western states with people fleeing CA.
Hillary could win this election; not that she will, but she could. The conservative base alone cannot elect a president - Bush got plenty of independent voters in 2004, if he hadn't, he would have lost.
No Republican will ever again win the Presidency without the socially conservative base of the Republican Party. The GOP ticket in 2008 must be 100% pro-life, for example.