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To: Yelling
However it does appear (to me anyway) to be fairly complex. You might have the math necessary so that this appears simple, I do not. However I am always willing to learn.

Your earlier appeal to authority has now turned into an appeal of ignorance, an interesting change of rhetoric.

"We isolate the dominant patterns of the instrumental surface temperature data through principal component analysis (PCA). PCA provides a natural smoothing of the temperature field in terms of a small number of dominant patterns of variability or `empirical eigenvectors'."

Let's see if we can figure this out together. An vector is a measurement of each dimension of orthogonal values, such values would be measurements such as tree ring width, temperature, etc. Vectors denote a point in the space made up of those axes, that point relates the various measurements. For example a wider tree ring combined with a higher temperature means in practical terms that the tree grew more in a warmer year. As stated by Mann and his critics, the only way such relationships can be determined is by using temperature measurements made in the 1900-2000 century. Then Mann applied those relationships to the previous known measurements (tree rings, ice cores and one other that I forgot).

The potential problems with this method are numerous. Foremost, the data can be cherry picked. Apparantly Mann used just nine locations out of all the available data, just 5 for North America. Surely much more data could have been used. Second, other factors could skew the relationship between the measurements. In the case of tree rings there is certainly a man-made component of increased CO2 that would cause increased tree growth for a given temperature. Third, other factors can easily be ignored, How would sun intensity affect plant growth, how would that be measured in history and how would that relate to temperature (as we must certainly agree it does)?

128 posted on 01/17/2005 10:53:12 AM PST by palmer ("Oh you heartless gloaters")
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To: palmer
LOL, sorry, no rhetoric and I have no qualms about admitting that I don’t know (that is the start of all wisdom).

Thanks for the comment on vectors, however it was not really all that useful. So if I can describe the process as I understand it. Mann took the instrumentation data and decomposed it into it main components of variability (the Eigen vectors). He then used the proxy series and analyzed these in terms of the components of variability. This gave him the influence of each component.

You then said “Apparently Mann used just nine locations out of all the available data, just 5 for North America.”

No, that is not correct. First, it depends on which paper you are talking about. In his 98 paper that looked at the global temperature he used over 100. In his 99 paper he looked at just the Northern Hemisphere and he used 12 since that is all that were available. However the first 3 were actually the 3 principle components of the 28 tree series for North America so if you consider these as well there are almost 40.


In regards to your list of potential problems with tree rings, these are taken into account. I have explained why there were just 12. In regards to CO2 enhancement, if you have read his paper you will see that he has dealt with CO2 enhancement. He also looks at solar output and checks his data series for dependence. He then removes these “non-climatic” factors from his series.
132 posted on 01/17/2005 12:54:10 PM PST by Yelling
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