Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

To: Yelling
Also, I don't see how he can make the link from Global temperature anomaly to climate anomaly.

They are essentially the same thing. A global temperature anomaly manifests as a much larger-than-normal number of local climate anomalies. Global cooling manifests as a large number of local coolings and locally above or below normal precip. Likewise warming to warming and abnormal precip. The other scientists' explanations that he reviews are from local weather pattern changes (e.g. the polar vortex). The hypothesis I allude to in 138 is that global temperature anomalies are more likely to create climate anomalies than when global temperatures are normal. I think that is well supported both empirically and in theory.

I think that if he had left his research at dealing with these he would have had a much stronger paper.

Perhaps so, the precip changes are clearly pretty strong for both periods but the explanations are rather piecemeal and some are non-existant. Part of that is the complexity of local climate changes and partly he is just ignoring the issue.

Re: anomalies this century, I don't agree with you on this. I think the anomaly's are there but are reported different.

That is the crux of the issue. Do the proxy measurements from the 1900's indicate greater warmth than the MWP? Soon points out over and over that the answer is no. There is no conceivable way that so many proxy measurements could all be distorted by precipitation. Some are more likely (glaciers) and some less likely (tree line). Some have better explanations (ocean temperatures from changes in ocean currents). But the overwhelming evidence from Soon's paper is for warming in the MWP well beyond any in the 20th century (and most of that was early 20th in any case).

138 posted on 01/18/2005 7:24:52 AM PST by palmer ("Oh you heartless gloaters")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 137 | View Replies ]


To: palmer
Global cooling manifests as a large number of local coolings and locally above or below normal precip. Likewise warming to warming and abnormal precip.

But you still need to link the change in precipitation to either warming or cooling at that time in that area. If you can't do this, the information is worthless.

The other scientists' explanations that he reviews are from local weather pattern changes (e.g. the polar vortex).

But again, there is nothing to link a change in the polar vortex to temperature change. All the polar vortex will do is to change the circulation air which WILL change precipitation.

The hypothesis I allude to in 138 is that global temperature anomalies are more likely to create climate anomalies than when global temperatures are normal. I think that is well supported both empirically and in theory.

I am not as sure of the connection as you are, however it is not really relevant here. The key that I keep going over and over is that you can not just point to anomalies and say that they are indications of warming or cooling. There must be a way to tie the anomaly's to temperature change and then to either warming or cooling.

But the overwhelming evidence from Soon's paper is for warming in the MWP well beyond any in the 20th century (and most of that was early 20th in any case).

Absolutely not! As discussed above, we can't say what the changes in precipitation show in regards to temperature. Also, few if any of the studies are designed to look for 20th century anomalies. These are all (as far as I can see) papers trying to study past events and they use appropriate methods for that purpose. For example, ice core samples depend on the depth of the firn ice which can take up to several hundred years to develop and radio-carbon dating is only good after about 50 years has passed and will not generally give you a reading within much less than 100 years. Add to this the error of measurement such as (quoting from Bond, another author Soon references) "We sampled both cores at intervals of 0.5 to 1 cm (equivalent to a resolution of 50 to 100 years)" So if the resolution is 50 to 100 years, can we say anything about the last 1/2 of the 20th century?

Finally, I will add to the list of errors that Soon has made in this paper by saying that he or his researchers has a reading comprehension problem (using WOSG's terminology). I was re-reading deMenocal and I will note that Soon has listed him as answering NO to the question of "Is there an objective discernible climatic anomaly within the 20th century?" (as given in Table 1 - deMenocal 2000). In his paper deMonocal says " ... the LIA, ended in the late 19th century, and some of the warming since that time may be related to the present warming phase of this millennial-scale climate oscillation (Fig. 4), although the warming in recent decades is unprecedented relative to the past millennium." Of course he is talking about warming due to changing currents but that didn't stop Soon before.!
139 posted on 01/18/2005 10:20:34 AM PST by Yelling
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 138 | View Replies ]

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article


FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson