Posted on 01/20/2005 5:02:36 AM PST by TigerLikesRooster
Moscow stands firm on Korean standoff By Sergei Blagov
MOSCOW - Speculation that a second intra-Korean summit could take place on the sidelines of Russia's World War II victory celebrations is swirling, with South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun and North Korean leader Kim Jong-il both reportedly invited to the event.
The May 9 celebration of the 60th anniversary of the Allied victory, to be held in Moscow, is to be a major event in Russia. In all, the Kremlin has invited the leaders of 55 nations of World War II, including victors such as the United States, Britain and France; losers such as Germany and Japan; as well as those profoundly affected by it, such as China and Korea.
The possibility of a second summit in Russia isn't unlikely, as the Kremlin has repeatedly offered to play the role of mediator in the ongoing Korean standoff. Russia is ready to host "any meetings and talks, to help in any form so as to normalize the situation" around North Korea, Russian President Vladimir Putin has stated, and Moscow has long been pressing for the resumption of the six-nation talks to convince North Korea to drop its nuclear weapons program, and for the non-nuclear status of the Korean Peninsula.
North Korea and South Korea, supported by the United States, China, Japan and Russia, have held several rounds of negotiations aimed at persuading Pyongyang to abandon its nuclear weapons drive. However, Kim has long resisted relinquishing his nation's nuclear program, despite international pledges of security guarantees and economic aid.
Last September, Putin held summit talks in Moscow with his South Korean counterpart Roh. This resulted in a 10-point joint declaration pledging support a nuclear-free zone on the Korean Peninsula; strengthened cooperation in the six-nation talks; a block on weapons of mass destruction proliferation; joint actions to combat terrorism. In particular, the two leaders pledged to prevent the spread of nuclear, biological and chemical weapons.
Moscow's relations with North Korea, meanwhile, are topsy-turvy at best. Last year, Russian official media outlets alleged that North Korea was about to declare itself a nuclear power. In 2003, Russian media speculated over possible military involvement in Korea, in particular, a possible nuclear conflict on the Korean peninsula involving a preemptive missile strike against North Korean nuclear facilities, carried out by the Russian Pacific Fleet. On the other hand, it was been reported that in 2003 Kim sent a letter to Putin seeking his help in breaking the stalemate in the talks over the nuclear crisis.
The last time Russia tried its hand at negotiating a strategic agreement with Kim, in 2000, it turned into a fiasco. First it was announced in Moscow that North Korea had agreed to give up its ballistic rocket program in exchange for Russia's launching of civilian satellites into space. Then it turned out the deal was a joke initiated by Kim.
Nonetheless, despite this unfortunate incident, in recent years the reclusive Dear Leader has made two epic trips to Moscow by rail, hence Kim's attendance in the Russian capital in May cannot be completely ruled out.
Of course, Kim has never attended an international event with foreign heads of state. On similar occasions, the nominal head of state, President Kim Young-nam of the Supreme People's Assembly Presidium, attended. But given the Dear Leader's unpredictability and mercurial habits, yet another rail trip to Moscow could suddenly materialize. Hence Russian, South Korean and other officials have reasons to plan for all eventualities - including Kim's sudden arrival in Moscow.
Russia's top diplomat declined to comment on a possible intra-Korean summit meeting in Moscow in May. "Questions on contacts, which could be held without Russia's participation, should be best of all addressed to the leaders of the countries wishing to meet," Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told journalists in Moscow this week. However, Lavrov argued that the six-party talks on North Korea could be held "shortly and will be entail results".
Incidentally, earlier this week, US secretary of state-designate Condoleezza Rice reacted cautiously to reports that the North Koreans were ready to rejoin negotiations with China, Japan, Russia, South Korea and the US, which collapsed last year. "We have heard nothing really from North Korea," Rice said.
Rice has also urged for united world action to keep Iran and North Korea from building nuclear weapons. "We must remain united in insisting that Iran and North Korea abandon their nuclear weapons ambitions, and choose instead the path of peace," Rice said.
Contrariwise, Moscow has been urging nations to take a cautious course of action in relations with Pyongyang. For instance, Russia has indicated it would be against the North Korea nuclear issue being referred to the United Nations Security Council, even if the six-party talks fail. Teymuraz Ramishvili, Russia's envoy to South Korea, has said that North Korea's collapse was "almost impossible" and "there can be no change in the regime by outside powers". The last statement indicates that Moscow's true concerns deal with the recent regime changes in other parts of the world, rather than stability in Northeast Asia.
Notably, the Kremlin has been reluctant to sacrifice its relations with countries seen as rouge states in Washington. Russia has defended its nuclear ties with Iran, arguing Tehran's nuclear program is for peaceful purposes. On Tuesday, Lavrov stated that he did not see any reason to suspect the nature of Iran's nuclear program. Meanwhile, earlier this week, Washington said it would not rule out military force against Iran.
Moscow's reluctance to subscribe to US views is not limited to North Korea and Iran. For instance, Syrian President Bashar Assad is due to travel to Russia on January 24, presumably seeking aid and protection while facing a possible US invasion.
Earlier this month, Israel and the US lashed out at a would-be arms deal between Russia and Syria, although Russian officials denied any plans to sell Iskander-E ground-to-ground advanced missiles to Damascus.
Last week, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov said there had been no talks about missiles with Damascus. "We do not have any negotiations with Syria on the possible shipment of such missiles," he said. However, Ivanov added missiles sales to Damascus would violate no international treaty.
Moscow has been wary of the United States' unilateral policies, arguing that Washington would eventually find itself incapable of ruling the world single-handily. Russia has been seen as forging closer ties with China and India, presumably in order to confront perceived US unilateralism and forestall possible US action against North Korea, Iran and Syria. As Moscow has been unhappy about the recently licensed revolutions in Ukraine and Georgia, the Kremlin seems keen on preventing regime changes elsewhere.
Sergei Blagov covers Russia and post-Soviet states, with special attention to Asia-related issues. He has contributed to Asia Times Online since1996. Between 1983 and 1997, he was based in Southeast Asia. In 2001 and 2002, Nova Science Publishers, New York, published two of his books on Vietnamese history.
Ping!
Putin's not ready yet. He needs enough threats to the U.S. to shield and provide cover for his political machinations.
I'm hoping Putin isn't underestimating our common enemies just because he thinks he can use them or control them.
They need another election in Russia. Putin is doing severe damage to Russia's interests.
Putin seems eager to find a big enough knife to point at Dubya.
Well put.
Nah, Putin is overly eager to point the knife at the opposition within his own borders.
He just waves the knife in our general direction to keep the people within and without distracted.
"Ignore Germany, punish France, forgive Russia", eh ?
Condi's new version:
"Crush France, ignore Germany, and slap Russia.":)
Imagine what Putin could get away with if he had OUR electronic voting machines . . .
Bbbbbbbbbut, Putin is my fwend! Why he do dat? /sarcasm
Is me or does Vlad look like dude from Man of the Uncle noo not Robert Vaughan
OH man this got be MAD TV skit very soon OH COME ON MAD TV do reset on Vlad and Little Kimmy
Ping
Damn, I'm shaking in my boots...oh, wait, I don't have boots.
Let's see how wide is that forgiving streak !
To be fair, I don't think Putin (or any other patriot Russian leader) could or even should subordinate his policies to what pleases Washington, Berlin, London or Paris (or Tokyo for that matter). There must be some wire-act going on.
But Putin really is stretching the limits of everybody's patience here : defending North Korea, supplying Syria with advanced weapons, providing Iran with nuclear capacity, selling weapons to Red China and possibly selling WMDs to Iraq before spiriting them out of the country ? That asks for an AWFUL LOT of forgiving, here.
"But Putin really is stretching the limits of everybody's patience here : defending North Korea, supplying Syria with advanced weapons, providing Iran with nuclear capacity, selling weapons to Red China and possibly selling WMDs to Iraq before spiriting them out of the country ? That asks for an AWFUL LOT of forgiving, here."
Do you want to bitch slap Putin? - get oil back down to $20/barrel again. He started his BS in Ukraine in Nov and guess what happened in /dec - oil tumbled to 30's.
First he was on Saddam's side now he's on Kim's ?
Well, Putin is pissed now because we stopped him from playing in what he thought was his sandbox, Ukraine.
The Russians are going to play badguy for awhile as punishment for the behind-the-scenes US interference in the Russian interference in the Ukrainian election.
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