Huh? Clinton was specifically targeted by Christian conservatives - especially in 1996. Who told you that they stayed home?
Michael Barrone has shown that Christian conservatives voted in the same numbers that they did in 2000 so they didn't "elect GWB".
While most conservatives are also Christian, most don't consider themselves "Christian Conservatives" (aka Theocons) that vote on religious grounds. If that wasn't the case, why did Keyes get 17% of the vote in a state where Bush got over 40%? Keyes made hardcore Christian values the centerpiece of his campaign and he was running against a very liberal, secular candidate. Unless these theocons just didn't vote for Keyes because he is black, they must not exist in any great numbers.
The fact is that Theocons can't even be counted on to show up. Someone posted in one of the Kid Rock threads that Rove doesn't even consider them likely voters.
The Theocons chase away all of the fiscal conservatives and then don't show up to vote because news is released of Bush's DUI 30 years ago.
BTW, what did Theocons have against GHWB and Bob Dole that made them not show up to defeat Clinton in 92 and 96?
The fact is that Theocons can't even be counted on to show up. Someone posted in one of the Kid Rock threads that Rove doesn't even consider them likely voters.He also knows that if they don't vote GOP, they at least won't vote for the Democrat. The swing voters, on the other hand, just might. That means that each of them represents a two vote swing. It's basic electoral math....and why Gore never swung left to counter Nader.
Rove knows it. Atwater knew it. Reagan knew it. As one of the Dems' sharpest strategists once said, a campaign looking to "energize the base" is already planning on losing.
-Eric