Tri-County(part) 2004 Bush vs Kerry
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Background history
Stab started off in local politics back in Lansing. She was a state rep/state senator for years. She first ran for statewide office in 1994 in an attempt to take out John Engler. She lost to Howard Wolpe in the primary and then became the Lt Governor nominee running with Wolpe(They both run together). Wolpe and Stabenow got their butts kicked by Engler/Binsfeld
In 1996, Stabenow ran for Congress against incumbent Dick Chrysler who won in the 1994 landslide. Chrysler's a good guy, but the unions dumped $2 million in that race and the district leaned slightly democrat. Stab won with 52 or 53% if I remember.
In 98, we should have taken out Stab. Engler was facing Fieger who dragged down the entire ticket. However, Right to life skipped this race. Sue Munsell was pro-choice, and for some reason Stabenow has a following in Livingston County(compared to other dems). Combining the two, it was not good and unfortunatly, springboarded her 2000 race. I posted Rogers 2000 for comparasion with the 1998 race.
Gore/Kerry Counties Stab lost in 2000
Oakland(Both), Arenac(both), Alger(Kerry), Calhoun(Gore), Kalamazoo(Both), Isabella(Both), Ogemaw(Gore), Iosco(Gore), Manistee(Gore), Roscommon(Gore).
Outside of Kalamazoo and Oakland, most of these are more blue collar areas. Oakland was Spence Abraham's home. Kalamazoo is the home of Western Michigan University, and also has a large black population in the city.
Counties Stab won that Bush won
Macomb, Alpena, Iron, Monroe - Bush won them all in 2004 by a close margin.
Stabenow also has problems outside of the Lansing area and Flint/Detroit areas. She had very low numbers for a dem in Bay, Marquette, Lake, and Saginaw which have a lot of social conservatives. Muskegon was a shocker as well. Those 5 areas are all usually 54-55% Spence Abraham ran ahead of Bush in most of the state, especially up North, and that factored in the dem counties as well up there. Alpena was a disaster for Stabenow.
But she made up for in the 8th district pre-redistricting counties. Ingham, Livingston, Washtenaw, Shiawassee, and Genessee.(Only two Oakland twps are there) She ran almost with Gore in Eaton, Jackson, and Clinton counties which are in Lansing's media market. Same with Lapeer which is Flint's market. They aren't in the 8th district, but are in the same media markets.
Ingham County is Stab's home, and she ran slightly ahead of Gore there. She campaigned hard in Livingston County and did well here for a democrat(Bush's 4th best county). She ran even with Gore in Washtenaw and only slightly behind Shiawassee Counties. SWGenesee was in her district, and was her best area outside of Wayne County.
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If the Republican candidate is to beat Stab, he (or she) is going to have to match Spence (or Bush 04) up North. I think that is very possible if you run a pro-lifer and pro-gunner. They don't get worse than Stab on those two - despite what she says. Obstructionism should hurt her up there too.
The GOP has been losing ground in Kalamazoo, Muskegon, Kent(still solid GOP, but not like it used to be), Oakland, and Washtenaw Counties. The bleeding there needs to be taken care of as soon as possible. Some of it is migration(Washtenaw and Oakland), but we need to fight there.
The candidate also has to strike hard at the pre-redistrict 8th district areas. Livingston needs to be able to balance out Ingham County one on one - at least 63%, perferably 65%+. Ingham's a homer so that will be hard to break, but the rural areas could be up for grabs. Byrum got clipped by Rogers on her own turf there to lose overall by 88 votes after the recount. Throw Eaton, Lapeer(Going more GOP) and Jackson into the mix as well there. If Stab loses her regional base there, we'll have an easier time making up those Wayne County votes.
I think we can take Macomb and Monroe. We won those two in a row(02/04) and a Stabenow Democrat is easier to beat than a John Dingell democrat in those two areas.
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So who's in? And who may be in?
Declared
Bart Baron - Frequent candidate from Troy. He has a personal crusade against Joe Knollenberg and is a Buchananite. He switched parties to run as a democrat in 2002, and switched back this year. He's going to lose the primary.
Keith Butler - He's a founder and Bishop of the Word of Faith Christian Center in Southfield. He's an outspoken conservative and is the only known republican to win a seat on Detroit City Council in recent years. Can he cut into enough of the Detroit and Southfield vote against Stabenow? That's the big question.
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Other possible candidates.
Mike Bouchard - Oakland County Sheriff. I really don't know that much about him on the issues. He's won in Oakland County which has been a trouble spot for us.
Nick Smith - Former 7th District congressman. A bit of a moderate and a maverick. Squishy on guns(sometimes goes our way), but also voted to get out of the UN. Fairly low profile. I'd back him over Stabenow.
Jane Abraham - Spence Abraham's wife. I believe she runs a pro-life counter to Emily's list.
Mike Rogers - Congressman who replaced Stabenow in the 8th district. He's got my support if he runs. I think he's the best shot we have, and can eliminate Stabenow's 8th district edge outside of Genesee(which is no longer his district). He even won Ingham County and Lansing itself in 2002, and almost won Ingham in 2004.
There may be other candidates as well.
While I don't know that much about AG Cox, I have been impressed with him during the couple of times I've heard him speak. I wish he would consider running but I've read that he isn't.
Do you know anything about Butler?
I am almost embarrassed by the lack of national level Republican talent here. Rove and company certainly aren't adverse to pushing electable talent and the silence is discouraging.
2006 ping.
Thanks for the scouting report. Very informative. BUMP!
I always thought that Ted Nugent (a.k.a. "Motor City Madman") would be an outstanding senatorial candidate to take on either Levin or Stabenow. Guess that's a no-go now that he's taken up residence not too far from GWB in Crawford, Texas.
As for Butler, he seems like he could be another Herman Cain type candidate that excites the national base. The only question is whether he would get treated like Marvin Scott or Barack Obama should he make it out of the primary.
Another positive about Nick Smith is that he voted against the prescription drug bill despite strong pressure from Hastert and Candice Miller, so he's principled and would be backed big time by the Club for Growth (though he's a little old for my liking).
"Stab won with 52 or 53% if I remember."
Actually, Stabenow won by 55% to 45%. It was one of the better showings against an incumbent Congressman that year.
Keith Butler does have a personal fortune, or at least that's what I read. However, he is a largely unteseted candidate. I think he should run for another office, like Wayne County Commissioner or something like that. While he has a lot of good qualities, he doesn't strike me as ready for prime time.
Michael Bouchard would be an excellent candidate if he can raise the money. His history of winning votes in Oakland County would be an invaluable asset.
Thanks for compiling all of this information in one thread.