Posted on 02/18/2005 6:37:25 PM PST by Stoat
You're assuming that this hasn't already happened. Assad finds himself in a poker game he cannot win.
you can bet Iran's airports and runways will be gone in about 5 mins if they make a move.
I'm in a grumpy mood, and if it came across as directed at you, I appologize.
Awww....no need to apologize! No offense taken :-)
Suggestion: When I'm in a grumpy mood, I've found that a sure cure is either chocolate
or a nice steak
I hope that you will feel better soon :-)
My fear is they may become dangerously unpredicatable if Syria falls.
I would suggest that Iran is terribly unpredictable as it is, but Syria is a major source of terrorists in Iraq and elsewhere at the moment, and would be a tremendous step in the direction of stability in Iraq if it should fall.
I'm thinking that if the Iranian people were to be presented with the spectre of their own 'government' on the brink of pushing the button, Israel on the brink of a first strike against Iran, and a demonstrably serious ally in the United States, it might be enough to motivate them into taking Iran back for themselves.
The Iranian people don't have weapons but US covert ops could possibly shift that balance as well.
Don't forget also that the Iraqi people are none to pleased with the Iranians....they will be a staunch US ally against Iran.
Personally, I will vote for 'releasing the cruise missiles' but hounds will certainly do in a pinch :-)
Wouldn't that be great. Somehow, I just don't feel like this will happen. It becomes especially less likely if they really do get nukes.
Sounds good but they can't even, at this point, defend themselves against the "insurgents". I would doubt they would be much of a force.
Excellent points all. I just now looked at a map to refresh my addled and excessively furry stoat brain, which had been under the impression that Syria was strategically situated in such a scenario, but I see that I was wrong....my bad :-(
I would still suggest, however, that Syria's ties to Iran as a terror-sponsoring ally would be a great thing to remove from the entire situation. It would aid in isolating Iran and make clear our serious intent..
Wouldn't that be great. Somehow, I just don't feel like this will happen. It becomes especially less likely if they really do get nukes.
I agree that especially after witnessing what happened in Iraq, counting on the civilian population for major assistance in a massive government takeover doesn't sound too promising. Iran's population, however is better educated and less tribal, I believe, than Iraq's, which may play a positive role.
Things may ultimately end up with something of a stalemate / blockade, and with a restless civilian population the Iranian government may find it's position untenable.
It will be essential to get the Russians on our side so that Iran won't get support from them.
Sounds good but they can't even, at this point, defend themselves against the "insurgents". I would doubt they would be much of a force.
My hope is that push won't come to shove with Iran until Iraq has stabilized and has a solid standing army. Iran, however, is likely to make a move of it's own before that happens....and that is where Israel may come in.
Didn't Russia claim today that Iran has no intention of getting nukes? And considering they are helping to build their plants for them, I doubt they would be too eager to help.
dont you wish we all had one of buttons Mr. Burns has on the simpsons that when pushed would put into a course of action whatever we desired at that moment. AAAHHHHH the realities of cartoons.
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I didn't hear that :-( I'm hoping that we don't get into another situation like in Vietnam, where we're actually fighting Russia's weaponry and industrial output. I'm wondering what we can do to convince the Russkies that we will make better friends for them than the Iranians will? Will they be so eager to prop up an Islamofascist state, especially considering all of their own internal Islamic troubles, not to mention Beslan?
Yes, wouldn't it though? Equipping our troops with ACME brand rocket-powered sand skis as in the Roadrunner cartoons would allow them to traverse vast tracts of desert quickly....although I would want them to have better training in the use of the equipment than Wile E. Coyote did :-)
Er, how would you characterize them now?
Assad has probably already cut off more than he can chew.
What Is Inside The Mind of Syrian Baath?
On the one hand, he's managed to align every faction in Lebanon, save one, against the Syrian occupation. Under the circumstances, it isn't going to stand.
His choices are either to a.) stand and fight in Lebanon, with the entire country set against him -- aided by such forces as the U.S. and Israel can bring to bear -- with only a single ally (who can't help him), no friendly borders and an MEU camped at his back door, or b.) he can run like hell back across the border and confront his terrorist supporters -- Hezbollah, et al and the Iraqi Baathists -- back in Damascus...probably earning a bullet in the skull.
Assad is between a sharp rock and a very hard place, with no easy way out. Unless he asks us for help...and does as he is told.
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