Posted on 02/18/2005 7:26:35 PM PST by quidnunc
When the blasts rocked Beirut, massacring former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri and his companions, history was taking a new turn in Lebanon: On the one hand, Damascus' regime has decided to choose the path of Saddam, while the majority of the Lebanese opted for regime change. In the following hours after the barbaric killing, the dice were rolling already. Nothing was to stop the Muslim Sunnis from breaking away from Assad's control, and nothing will stop a Sunni-Druze-Christians alliance from reaching out to the Shiite community. How is it that the Syrian regime, known to be a shrewd planner and a long term strategist, would commit a political suicide? To execute Rafiq Hariri in the middle of the day, and sit back in Damascus waiting for the funerals to take place and for the international community to react, is not at all an Assad smart move. How come the regime's elite allow such a gigantic mistake to be perpetrated?
All students of Syrian and Lebanese politics, and I have been one since 1975, would concur that something of an apocalyptic nature has occurred inside the Baath Party nomenclature for such a junun(folly) to happen. No one in the Sunni Lebanese community is awaiting any judicial evidence to point the finger towards the East of the Bekaa . And very few among the Christians and Druze have a shred of doubt about the perpetrators, having suffered identical losses from Kamal Jumblat to Bashir Gemayel, both assassinated by the Syrian Baathists over the past couple decades. Even clairvoyant Lebanese Shiites have read the signs in the sands: Syria's command is out of control..
Effectively, once an occupier-regime starts devouring his past allies, the end is near, even though it would stretch its destiny further in time. Alea jacta est, (what is done is done) by assassinating the most influential politician in Lebanon today, Bashar's future in the neighboring country is set: It won't have one anymore. …
-snip-
Holy Shiite! It is going to be a blood Baath!
The author paints a picture of an embattled Ba'ath party invoking a scorched earth policy in Lebanon. He does not go into detail as to why he thinks that a withdrawal from Lebanon will serve as that party's death-knell, but he makes a fair case that it has thoroughly alienated the three principal parties in Lebanon and that its welcome is worn out.
It is evident that one key to this situation is Hezbollah. Will an independent Lebanon suit their Iranian masters? It doesn't appear that way. Can they do anything about it other than that traditional Lebanese resort, blowing holes in the place? I suspect we're about to find out.
"It is evident that one key to this situation is Hezbollah."
And another key is that Syria abuts Israel only in the corner of the Golan Heights. Lebanon affords a larger border to Israel for the purposes of infiltration.
I suspect Dr. Phares has contacts in the area which feed him inside information.
bump for later read
Bump!
From recent actions, it appears that Iran is anxious about getting Syria to confirm its status as an ally.
Syria and Assad are now between a sharply pointed rock and a very hard place. There are choices to be made. And none of them are terribly good.
Assad can assure his survival in the short-term only by pulling up stakes in Lebanon and scatting right back to his pappy's farm. And asking, nicely, what he can do for us.
At that, he risks Iran and Hezbollah's wrath, along with Baathist ire. He runs the very high risk of being assassinated.
If he chooses to start shooting in Lebanon, he wins no friends...and gains a boatload of enemies. All without a single friendly border...
One way or the other, Assad is going down -- without ever having gained Axis of Evil status.
Do we have a carrier in the Eastern Med? Or one that can be there in short order?
Lebanon ping.
OK, so I'm kidding. They're a bunch of no-loads who regularly allow Hezbollah to mount demonstrations and missions against Israel. No children in the area unarmed enough to rape, I suppose. If Israel decides to play directly they will, as you suggest, come in through the Golan. I hope they don't, actually. It might cause more problems than it would solve.
That'd be Sixth Fleet's area. Oh, my yes. Fleet average is 175 aircraft... I think the flag's on LaSalle but I might be wrong...
Of course the Fifth could fly from the Gulf and anything in Iraq could reach the area without refueling. (Heck, we flew missions into Iraq from Missouri). Speaking strictly hypothetically, of course.
The purple fingers of the Iraqi voters knocked over a mighty big domino. Like Eastern Europe in 1989, the Middle East may be on the verge of a breathtaking cascade of human liberation.
Excellent point.
If we drain the Baathtub now in Syria, Iran is left alone to hold the terror fort.
And there is a good chance Iran may topple their mullahs if they get enough of an "assist".
Don't ya think?
:)
-good times, G.J.P.(Jr.)
I can think of one scenario that can save Assad - that he manages to provoke a low-grade conflict with Israel. That would make Iran and the rest of the Arab world rally behind him, at least for the short term. So we need to keep an eye on the Golan Heights.
A good example of just how worthless the MSM is.
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