The author paints a picture of an embattled Ba'ath party invoking a scorched earth policy in Lebanon. He does not go into detail as to why he thinks that a withdrawal from Lebanon will serve as that party's death-knell, but he makes a fair case that it has thoroughly alienated the three principal parties in Lebanon and that its welcome is worn out.
It is evident that one key to this situation is Hezbollah. Will an independent Lebanon suit their Iranian masters? It doesn't appear that way. Can they do anything about it other than that traditional Lebanese resort, blowing holes in the place? I suspect we're about to find out.
"It is evident that one key to this situation is Hezbollah."
And another key is that Syria abuts Israel only in the corner of the Golan Heights. Lebanon affords a larger border to Israel for the purposes of infiltration.
I suspect Dr. Phares has contacts in the area which feed him inside information.
From recent actions, it appears that Iran is anxious about getting Syria to confirm its status as an ally.
Syria and Assad are now between a sharply pointed rock and a very hard place. There are choices to be made. And none of them are terribly good.
Assad can assure his survival in the short-term only by pulling up stakes in Lebanon and scatting right back to his pappy's farm. And asking, nicely, what he can do for us.
At that, he risks Iran and Hezbollah's wrath, along with Baathist ire. He runs the very high risk of being assassinated.
If he chooses to start shooting in Lebanon, he wins no friends...and gains a boatload of enemies. All without a single friendly border...
One way or the other, Assad is going down -- without ever having gained Axis of Evil status.
Do we have a carrier in the Eastern Med? Or one that can be there in short order?